Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Tuesday!
Well, there’s not much to talk about, really. The market is as flat as the turtle sticker on the back window of my wife’s car. We have been hovering around the unchanged levels in equity and credit markets all morning. Volumes are low, as would be expected for this week, so don’t expect any major movements in either direction.
The S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index for October reported a 146.6 figure, which is pretty close to the 147 anticipated. The number from the month previous was 146.7. The Composite for the 20 major metropolitan cities in America for October dropped 7.3% from the same month last year, in line with the 7.2% forecasted by the experts. The September reading for this report showed a loss of 9.3% year-over-year, so that is a slight improvement. Obviously the market had little reaction to this report. Yet . . . we in the real estate and financial industry would sure love to see some “bottoming out” in 2010 in home prices (from my keyboard to His ears). That would sure help with all the foreclosures and begin to alleviate the restrictions that we have in our industry at this time.
The Conference Board released their official Consumer Confidence Index for December this morning with a reading of 52.9 – in line with expectations of 53. It is a slight improvement, though, from the month previous which was 50.6 . . . and up from the 20’s that we saw earlier this year. This report continues to have no affect on the market. Later today we will have the results from the 5 year Treasury auction. Hopefully a healthy appetite for these securities will help rates.
I will be in the office all day today, working my way through the applications we have for today and tomorrow. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you, and have a terrific Tuesday.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Friday, December 18, 2009
Final Update/ Week of December 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Equity markets slipped significantly yesterday, especially late in the session. The Dow finished down 132 points, and credit markets improved all through the day. Equity markets are struggling to make up even a fraction of those losses today, and they are going to struggle as this is a quadruple witching day. Traders need to get out of their options and futures, and this is going to create a lot of action and a lot of volatility.
Credit markets are giving back a little of their gains this morning, but pricing is relative to the improvements some investors came out with yesterday afternoon. All in all, we’re about (.25) better in rebate from yesterday morning’s pricing . . . nice!
We talked yesterday about California’s unemployment, which was released today for the month of November. We saw a slight drop . . . the first one after 23 months of consistently rising unemployment numbers. We now sit at 12.3% unemployed for the state (although some pockets like Riverside are over 16%) . . . and the forecast we discussed yesterday said that we will hover around 12%, but probably not much higher. They also predicted that we will remain above 10% through 2012. YOIKES!
There are no economic news releases today. Have you seen the run in oil prices in the last several days? We were below $69 a barrel a few days ago, and now we hover around $75 . . . so much for cheaper gas for the holidays. I will be in the office until about 4:00 today . . . but any locking or relocking activity is going to have to happen early, and then we’ll all be in a conference call at 11:00 gearing up for the new GFE.
If I don’t speak to you today . . . have a terrific Friday and a very enjoyable and festive weekend!
Credit markets are giving back a little of their gains this morning, but pricing is relative to the improvements some investors came out with yesterday afternoon. All in all, we’re about (.25) better in rebate from yesterday morning’s pricing . . . nice!
We talked yesterday about California’s unemployment, which was released today for the month of November. We saw a slight drop . . . the first one after 23 months of consistently rising unemployment numbers. We now sit at 12.3% unemployed for the state (although some pockets like Riverside are over 16%) . . . and the forecast we discussed yesterday said that we will hover around 12%, but probably not much higher. They also predicted that we will remain above 10% through 2012. YOIKES!
There are no economic news releases today. Have you seen the run in oil prices in the last several days? We were below $69 a barrel a few days ago, and now we hover around $75 . . . so much for cheaper gas for the holidays. I will be in the office until about 4:00 today . . . but any locking or relocking activity is going to have to happen early, and then we’ll all be in a conference call at 11:00 gearing up for the new GFE.
If I don’t speak to you today . . . have a terrific Friday and a very enjoyable and festive weekend!
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Update #3/ Week of December 14, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Wednesday! The markets are generally flat again today . . . we were up 30 on the Dow on Monday, down 50 yesterday, up 30 today . . . no real direction, and we expect that to be the case for the rest of the year. Treasuries just in the last hour have moved well into positive territory. We all await the FOMC announcement due to be released in about an hour and ½ . . . no surprises anticipated here, but if credit markets continue to improve, we should be seeing some price improvements this afternoon. Our rebates today are only slightly better than those of yesterday’s rate sheet.
The markets received some good news this morning . . . and even more surprising, the economic news releases were in line with expectations! Imagine that . . . the experts finally got it right today. The first bit of economic news is the CPI for November which showed a rise of .4% month over month – in line with expectations. Remember yesterday we learned that the Producers have seen a spike in prices . . . but the months previous this was not the case. This is the reason that the Consumer Price Index is still tame. Let’s hope we don’t see a similar spike in CPI 4-6 months from now. That would be a real killer for the recovery, and something the Feds are very concerned about – it its their # 1 job.
Housing starts for November posted an annualized rate of 574K – in line with expectations (actually right on the money) and this is up from a dismal 527K reported in October. Building permits for November rose to 584,000 which topped expectations of 570K, and much better than the 551K posted in October. If you remember, October’s numbers were way off the previous months’ reports causing some alarm that housing was slowing even further. This month’s number has provided a lot of relief for those fears.
Again, we all wait to see if the FOMC announcement has any bearing on the market – more than likely it won’t, but should give some comfort to the credit markets. I expect we’ll get some improvement in pricing after the announcement. I will be in the office this morning… I will be available by cell phone after lunch, but if you want to catch me here at the office, catch me early. Have a terrific Humpday!
The markets received some good news this morning . . . and even more surprising, the economic news releases were in line with expectations! Imagine that . . . the experts finally got it right today. The first bit of economic news is the CPI for November which showed a rise of .4% month over month – in line with expectations. Remember yesterday we learned that the Producers have seen a spike in prices . . . but the months previous this was not the case. This is the reason that the Consumer Price Index is still tame. Let’s hope we don’t see a similar spike in CPI 4-6 months from now. That would be a real killer for the recovery, and something the Feds are very concerned about – it its their # 1 job.
Housing starts for November posted an annualized rate of 574K – in line with expectations (actually right on the money) and this is up from a dismal 527K reported in October. Building permits for November rose to 584,000 which topped expectations of 570K, and much better than the 551K posted in October. If you remember, October’s numbers were way off the previous months’ reports causing some alarm that housing was slowing even further. This month’s number has provided a lot of relief for those fears.
Again, we all wait to see if the FOMC announcement has any bearing on the market – more than likely it won’t, but should give some comfort to the credit markets. I expect we’ll get some improvement in pricing after the announcement. I will be in the office this morning… I will be available by cell phone after lunch, but if you want to catch me here at the office, catch me early. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Update #2/ week of December 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Well, we were looking for a lack luster week, and we have it in equity markets so far. Unfortunately, a surprise spike in PPI has hit the credit markets like a kick in the stomach. Our pricing is about (.500) worse in rebate from yesterday morning. Wells Fargo joins the group of banking giants to request the opportunity to pay back the TARP funds before the end of the year. All of these banks want to get out from under the thumb of the government and pay their executives big bonuses at the end of the year. This is why we’re seeing a mad rush to get all the TARP money paid back.
The PPI has been pretty tame in the last several months indicating that the prices to be passed along to the consumers will be tame also. The Producers Price Index spiked 1.8% in November far above the anticipated .8% increase month over month. This caught a lot of traders by surprise. Much of this, though is due to food and energy, ‘cause when you take those out of the mix, the rise is only .5% -- still stronger than the .2% expected. This is, of course, the Producers report of what they are paying now for materials, and implies that this increase in what they had to pay will be passed along to the consumer. This will cause inflation to rise, and inflation is a very bad thing for banks. This is why we have a sudden jolt in pricing today.
Otherwise, in other economic related news, New York’s Empire Manufacturing Index slowed to almost a crawl (if that) with a reading of 25.5 – a bit off from the 24.0 expected and the 23.51 posting in November. That’s quite a miss! But, they’re all the way on the other corner of the country, so who cares. Industrial production increased .8% besting the .5% anticipated. Capacity Utilization for November reported a 71.3%, pretty much in line with the 71.1% anticipated.
With kind of a mixed bag of reports this morning, the equity markets are pretty much flat, but as we mentioned at the top of the page . . . credit markets got hammered early. We’ll look for things to settle down in credit markets throughout the day, too, as they seem to already be doing. I’ll be in the office all day today available for your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Tuesday!
The PPI has been pretty tame in the last several months indicating that the prices to be passed along to the consumers will be tame also. The Producers Price Index spiked 1.8% in November far above the anticipated .8% increase month over month. This caught a lot of traders by surprise. Much of this, though is due to food and energy, ‘cause when you take those out of the mix, the rise is only .5% -- still stronger than the .2% expected. This is, of course, the Producers report of what they are paying now for materials, and implies that this increase in what they had to pay will be passed along to the consumer. This will cause inflation to rise, and inflation is a very bad thing for banks. This is why we have a sudden jolt in pricing today.
Otherwise, in other economic related news, New York’s Empire Manufacturing Index slowed to almost a crawl (if that) with a reading of 25.5 – a bit off from the 24.0 expected and the 23.51 posting in November. That’s quite a miss! But, they’re all the way on the other corner of the country, so who cares. Industrial production increased .8% besting the .5% anticipated. Capacity Utilization for November reported a 71.3%, pretty much in line with the 71.1% anticipated.
With kind of a mixed bag of reports this morning, the equity markets are pretty much flat, but as we mentioned at the top of the page . . . credit markets got hammered early. We’ll look for things to settle down in credit markets throughout the day, too, as they seem to already be doing. I’ll be in the office all day today available for your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, December 14, 2009
Update #1/ Week of December 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! We have a pretty quiet morning on Wall Street and in credit markets this morning. Of course, it’s Monday, so that means the markets have to be positive (I think we’re up to 13 of the last 15 now) even though last week we only eked out a paltry 1 point gain on the Dow. Credit markets are slightly better and our pricing is any where from (.125) to around a (.25) better in rebate from Friday’s pricing. I suspect the markets will drift along this week in and around the unchanged mark with credit markets improving slightly throughout the week, having been unreasonably pounded last week.
There are no major economic news releases this morning. The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled meeting today and will be announcing their final monetary decision of the year tomorrow at 11:15 a.m. The dollar is slightly weaker, and this is usually a cause for gains on the stock market. Crude oil per barrel dipped over night well below the $69 mark, but is currently hovering just under $70.
Citigroup has come up with a plan to issue $17B of common stock to raise money in order to pay back their TARP money. The world economy got some good news over the weekend when Abu Dhabi stepped up to loan $10B to Dubai’s corporate flagship, Dubai World. They are not completely out of the woods, of course, but global markets are breathing a bit of a sigh. Look for markets to remain lethargic today with a lack of market moving news.
I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Monday and a very productive and prosperous week!
There are no major economic news releases this morning. The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled meeting today and will be announcing their final monetary decision of the year tomorrow at 11:15 a.m. The dollar is slightly weaker, and this is usually a cause for gains on the stock market. Crude oil per barrel dipped over night well below the $69 mark, but is currently hovering just under $70.
Citigroup has come up with a plan to issue $17B of common stock to raise money in order to pay back their TARP money. The world economy got some good news over the weekend when Abu Dhabi stepped up to loan $10B to Dubai’s corporate flagship, Dubai World. They are not completely out of the woods, of course, but global markets are breathing a bit of a sigh. Look for markets to remain lethargic today with a lack of market moving news.
I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Monday and a very productive and prosperous week!
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Update #4/ week of December 7, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Credit markets are taking a pounding this morning, but rebates are only about 15 to 30 bps worse than yesterday. The stock markets shot up right out of the gate, but appears to have hit an invisible ceiling and has been struggling for the past couple hours to maintain the rally. Mortgage secondary marketing decision makers have been cautious of late to chase the rates down, which is to our benefit when we have a spike in the wrong direction and pricing is only slightly worse. Again, it just appears equity traders are not going to allow a correction before the end of the year. A correction after the 1st of the new year, though, could mean rates continuing to stay down until the Spring. We’ll have to wait and see how all that plays out.
The economic news of the morning, as in every Thursday, is the initial jobless claims which rose to 474,000 for the week ending Dec. 5 – quite a bit higher than the 455K anticipated. The last couple weeks surrounding the holiday saw smaller numbers and was cause for an overly optimistic analysis about unemployment. We’re back to a normal week’s report now, and the news is more in line with the previous month’s reports. Continuing claims continue to fall though, which is good news. The latest figure came in at 5.16M -- far below the 5.45M expected.
Also, in other economic news, our trade deficit is benefitting from the latest move in the dollar and has shrunk to $32.9B in October from the $36.8B expected and below the revised $35.7B in September. Our goods are cheaper overseas and thus the exports are making up ground compared to imports. Bank of America was allowed to pay back the $45B in TARP money last night, and Citibank seeks to do the same next. This is another reason, I suppose, for optimistic mood on Wall Street.
As I mentioned, pricing is only slightly worse than yesterday’s, we should count ourselves fortunate. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
The economic news of the morning, as in every Thursday, is the initial jobless claims which rose to 474,000 for the week ending Dec. 5 – quite a bit higher than the 455K anticipated. The last couple weeks surrounding the holiday saw smaller numbers and was cause for an overly optimistic analysis about unemployment. We’re back to a normal week’s report now, and the news is more in line with the previous month’s reports. Continuing claims continue to fall though, which is good news. The latest figure came in at 5.16M -- far below the 5.45M expected.
Also, in other economic news, our trade deficit is benefitting from the latest move in the dollar and has shrunk to $32.9B in October from the $36.8B expected and below the revised $35.7B in September. Our goods are cheaper overseas and thus the exports are making up ground compared to imports. Bank of America was allowed to pay back the $45B in TARP money last night, and Citibank seeks to do the same next. This is another reason, I suppose, for optimistic mood on Wall Street.
As I mentioned, pricing is only slightly worse than yesterday’s, we should count ourselves fortunate. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Update #3/ Week of December 7, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! As Templeton would say, we have “A Veritable Smorgasbord” of economic news this morning with apparently few traders on the floor to digest it all. Stock markets may have rallied excitedly if there were someone there to cheer the rally. Good thing for us because credit markets, though a bit lower, could have really suffered much indigestion this morning. Our rates are about .25 better in rebate than they were yesterday, mostly due to yesterday afternoon’s rally in credit markets.
Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report was bumped up a day due to the holiday. This morning we learned that 466K initial jobless claims occurred last week, which is way down from the previous week’s number of 505K (seasonally adjusted) and below expectations of 500K. Pretty exciting news, really. You’d expect this on a shortened week, like this week, but not a normal week like last week. This is the first drop below 500K in over 12 months! Continuing claims dropped nearly 20K, too at 5.42M, below expectations of 5.57M.
In other positive news this morning in regards to economic recovery, personal income for October increased .2% -- besting the .1% anticipated. Personal spending was up .7% in October – besting the .5% anticipated. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased .2% in October, better than the .1% expected. Just a barrage of good news this morning . . . and normally you’d see the stock market taking off like a rocket – but it continues. New home sales figures for October showed an increase of 6.2% from Sept. to an annualized rate of 430K – topping expectations of 404K.
Oil prices were down early in trading, but once the inventory report came out with a rise in inventories, prices moved higher. The dollar is weak again today and gold is setting new highs . . . again. The results of a Treasury auction of 7-year T notes will be released in ½ hour or so. That may have a positive affect on credit markets.
If you want to lock a loan this morning . . . hurry. My pricing desk will be closing down around 1 PM. There will be no rate sheets on Friday, although we will be open, we will be running on a skeleton staff. Have a terrific Wednesday and a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family. I’ll be coming to you next on Monday the 30th.
Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report was bumped up a day due to the holiday. This morning we learned that 466K initial jobless claims occurred last week, which is way down from the previous week’s number of 505K (seasonally adjusted) and below expectations of 500K. Pretty exciting news, really. You’d expect this on a shortened week, like this week, but not a normal week like last week. This is the first drop below 500K in over 12 months! Continuing claims dropped nearly 20K, too at 5.42M, below expectations of 5.57M.
In other positive news this morning in regards to economic recovery, personal income for October increased .2% -- besting the .1% anticipated. Personal spending was up .7% in October – besting the .5% anticipated. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased .2% in October, better than the .1% expected. Just a barrage of good news this morning . . . and normally you’d see the stock market taking off like a rocket – but it continues. New home sales figures for October showed an increase of 6.2% from Sept. to an annualized rate of 430K – topping expectations of 404K.
Oil prices were down early in trading, but once the inventory report came out with a rise in inventories, prices moved higher. The dollar is weak again today and gold is setting new highs . . . again. The results of a Treasury auction of 7-year T notes will be released in ½ hour or so. That may have a positive affect on credit markets.
If you want to lock a loan this morning . . . hurry. My pricing desk will be closing down around 1 PM. There will be no rate sheets on Friday, although we will be open, we will be running on a skeleton staff. Have a terrific Wednesday and a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family. I’ll be coming to you next on Monday the 30th.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Update #1/ Week of December 7, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Monday! We talked last week about how the credit markets really over reacted on Thursday and Friday in price due to no particular movement in the stock markets. The credit markets are making up some ground today and our pricing is about (.375) to (.500) better in fee making up some of the losses from late last week. I can remember last year in December being a good month to lock loans, and it appears it will be the same again this year. Several Treasury auctions will be taking place this week, and are potential market movers. Traders will be keeping a close eye on these auctions to see what kind demand is still out there for these securities. This will have an impact on our pricing later this week.
There are no major economic news releases this morning. Ben Bernanke spoke today to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. and market participants are looking for any comments that might signal intentions by the Feds to raise interest rates after the first of the year. Apparently, nothing so far. If he does hint in that direction, it will be painful for us as far as rates go, but there doesn’t seem to be much impetus for that action at this point. Citibank has joined B of A in wanting to pay back the TARP money lent to them last year. So far the gov’t hasn’t wanted to see this money paid back, fearing another dip in financial risk next year. The fact that these two banking giants are in a position to do so, though, is comforting to many.
Gold continues to drop as signs of an improving economy with Friday’s very surprising unemployment report goes to show. Oil prices are dropping, too, which will provide some relief at the pump for the holiday driving season.
Have a prosperous and profitable week!
There are no major economic news releases this morning. Ben Bernanke spoke today to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. and market participants are looking for any comments that might signal intentions by the Feds to raise interest rates after the first of the year. Apparently, nothing so far. If he does hint in that direction, it will be painful for us as far as rates go, but there doesn’t seem to be much impetus for that action at this point. Citibank has joined B of A in wanting to pay back the TARP money lent to them last year. So far the gov’t hasn’t wanted to see this money paid back, fearing another dip in financial risk next year. The fact that these two banking giants are in a position to do so, though, is comforting to many.
Gold continues to drop as signs of an improving economy with Friday’s very surprising unemployment report goes to show. Oil prices are dropping, too, which will provide some relief at the pump for the holiday driving season.
Have a prosperous and profitable week!
Friday, December 4, 2009
Final Update/ Week of November 30 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Friday! I woke up this morning and went right to the computer to await the results on the unemployment report. The run up in equities was nice to see, but for the past 7 months we’ve watched the equity markets post month over month gains with little affect on interest rates. In fact, the market has never been so high (all year) as it has in the last several weeks, and rates have been as low as they have been all year. Today that is not the case. Pretty disappointing if you have a loan right on the cusp of getting locked. As I drove to work I listened to the every-10-minute market update and monitored by radio the market dropping into negative territory. Credit markets are improving, too!
The official Unemployment Report from the Labor Dept this morning created some very happy momentum for equity markets. The Labor Dept reported that the unemployment figure for November actually dropped to 10.0% from the 10.2% posted for October. In October our revised figure showed a loss of 111,000 jobs off non farm payrolls. The total net job losses for November was a paltry 11,000 – about 1/10th of the 125K anticipated by the experts. This also flies in the face of the ADP report we just rec’d on Wednesday which told us that private companies laid off 169K workers in November. Crazy. Keep in mind that many retailers were ramping up their sales staff for the holidays and many of these jobs will be let go in January. Maybe this is the reason for the quick drop in stock prices after an impressive start.
Gold is plunging – almost $50 an ounce and the dollar is rallying. Unemployment is a big concern, as we all know, and it’s only good news for almost everyone interested in the financial stability of our country to see this problem dissipate. There’s already talk of the Fed’s raising interest rates, but I think they’ll wait for the Spring to see how we look on the job scene at that time. Remember, companies are not going to be quick about hiring back full time workers. They’re going to over work their present staff first, then hire temps . . . then hire full time workers. This whole cycle could take several if not many months to play out.
Rates are off once again from yesterday’s rate sheet by anywhere from (.500) to (.750) in rebate. Let’s enjoy the breather, I suspect rates will drop back down next week. The stock market truly seems to be out of steam, but don’t look for a correction before New Year’s Eve. I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
The official Unemployment Report from the Labor Dept this morning created some very happy momentum for equity markets. The Labor Dept reported that the unemployment figure for November actually dropped to 10.0% from the 10.2% posted for October. In October our revised figure showed a loss of 111,000 jobs off non farm payrolls. The total net job losses for November was a paltry 11,000 – about 1/10th of the 125K anticipated by the experts. This also flies in the face of the ADP report we just rec’d on Wednesday which told us that private companies laid off 169K workers in November. Crazy. Keep in mind that many retailers were ramping up their sales staff for the holidays and many of these jobs will be let go in January. Maybe this is the reason for the quick drop in stock prices after an impressive start.
Gold is plunging – almost $50 an ounce and the dollar is rallying. Unemployment is a big concern, as we all know, and it’s only good news for almost everyone interested in the financial stability of our country to see this problem dissipate. There’s already talk of the Fed’s raising interest rates, but I think they’ll wait for the Spring to see how we look on the job scene at that time. Remember, companies are not going to be quick about hiring back full time workers. They’re going to over work their present staff first, then hire temps . . . then hire full time workers. This whole cycle could take several if not many months to play out.
Rates are off once again from yesterday’s rate sheet by anywhere from (.500) to (.750) in rebate. Let’s enjoy the breather, I suspect rates will drop back down next week. The stock market truly seems to be out of steam, but don’t look for a correction before New Year’s Eve. I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Update #4/ Week of November 30, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Equity markets are relatively flat this morning after some early choppiness. Traders and investors are excited about Bank of America wanting to pay back the $45B in TARP funds forced upon, excuse me, I mean LENT to them last year in an effort to rescue the banking industry. Seems Ken Lewis is wanting to retire after all this, and BofA is having a hard time attracting a viable leader with the restricted compensation it has to offer under the terms of the TARP loan. This is a positive sign for the economy, and the financial industry in particular.
Thursday is the day for initial jobless claims report from the previous week. The week ending November 28 saw 457K initial jobless claims, less than the 480K anticipated. The 4-week average moves down from 495,500 to 481,250 and continuing claims rise to 5.47M – besting the 5.40M expected. Revised productivity numbers for Q3 were scaled back a bit, but these reports have done little to move the markets in one direction or the other. The European Central Bank (their version of our Fed) voted to leave their benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.0% -- no surprise there.
The US dollar continues to drive the market – it was weaker overnight, but is gaining strength this morning. Prices on our mortgage rebates have backed up quite a bit. This will give us a chance to get the pig going through the python and be ready for the next wave of loans. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a pricing question or loan scenario. Have a terrific Thursday!
Thursday is the day for initial jobless claims report from the previous week. The week ending November 28 saw 457K initial jobless claims, less than the 480K anticipated. The 4-week average moves down from 495,500 to 481,250 and continuing claims rise to 5.47M – besting the 5.40M expected. Revised productivity numbers for Q3 were scaled back a bit, but these reports have done little to move the markets in one direction or the other. The European Central Bank (their version of our Fed) voted to leave their benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.0% -- no surprise there.
The US dollar continues to drive the market – it was weaker overnight, but is gaining strength this morning. Prices on our mortgage rebates have backed up quite a bit. This will give us a chance to get the pig going through the python and be ready for the next wave of loans. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a pricing question or loan scenario. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Update #3/ Week of Novemeber 30, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Markets are generally flat this morning after a little choppiness early. Equity markets attempted to continue their rally from the last couple trading sessions but have settled back down now at the flat line – credit markets have too. Asian markets rallied through the night last night on a follow up from our rally, maybe, and posted solid gains. Possibly this is the reason for the early morning positive start, but news from the ADP Payroll Report pretty much threw a wet blanket on any rally for today.
The ADP Employment Change Report, a precursor to the official gov’t unemployment report of late, reported that private companies laid off 169,000 workers in November. This is a bit higher than the 150K anticipated, but it is better than the 203K job losses in October. Job cuts are still on the decline, but we’re no where near job creation yet. Even this far into 2009, companies are still laying off tens of thousands of workers every month. Friday’s report from the Labor Dept is expected to show a further rise in unemployment figures . . . this report today from ADP only solidifies that concern.
The dollar is gaining strength today, and gold is too. The price of gold has gone up almost every day for the last month of trading, an amazing run to say the least. This run up in gold is perceived by some to be a sign that investors expect the stock market to give back a major portion of their gains of 2009. We’ll have to see what happens after the first of the year. It doesn’t look like we’re going to see any major corrections by the end of the month. By the way, this is last month of the decade, too . . . and what a decade it’s been! An interesting note . . . in Jan of 2001, the Dow was at 10,887 . . . the Dow as of this writing sits at 10,422 – we’ve lost about 450 points in 10 years! Funny.
OK, rates are off from yesterday morning as we saw many investors reprice yesterday afternoon. We are about .500 worse in rebate from yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I think we all could use a little break, too, these past 2 days have been overwhelmingly busy to say the least.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if you have any pricing or loan scenario questions – an have a terrific Humpday!
The ADP Employment Change Report, a precursor to the official gov’t unemployment report of late, reported that private companies laid off 169,000 workers in November. This is a bit higher than the 150K anticipated, but it is better than the 203K job losses in October. Job cuts are still on the decline, but we’re no where near job creation yet. Even this far into 2009, companies are still laying off tens of thousands of workers every month. Friday’s report from the Labor Dept is expected to show a further rise in unemployment figures . . . this report today from ADP only solidifies that concern.
The dollar is gaining strength today, and gold is too. The price of gold has gone up almost every day for the last month of trading, an amazing run to say the least. This run up in gold is perceived by some to be a sign that investors expect the stock market to give back a major portion of their gains of 2009. We’ll have to see what happens after the first of the year. It doesn’t look like we’re going to see any major corrections by the end of the month. By the way, this is last month of the decade, too . . . and what a decade it’s been! An interesting note . . . in Jan of 2001, the Dow was at 10,887 . . . the Dow as of this writing sits at 10,422 – we’ve lost about 450 points in 10 years! Funny.
OK, rates are off from yesterday morning as we saw many investors reprice yesterday afternoon. We are about .500 worse in rebate from yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I think we all could use a little break, too, these past 2 days have been overwhelmingly busy to say the least.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if you have any pricing or loan scenario questions – an have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Update #2/ Week of November 29, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! With news coming out in the last 24 hours about Dubai’s troubles being addressed, fears are dissipating, Asian markets posted sizeable gains, and the US stock markets are back on the rise. Yesterday, equity markets posted another Monday gain, and today we’re off to the races again. The Dow, being up 125 points, covers almost to the point the losses from Friday’s sell off. Amazing thing to all of us, is the way rates have stayed where they are. Rates and rebates are almost exactly where we were yesterday morning at this time after 155 point run up on the Dow in the same amount of time. Fine . . . we like it this way!
The dollar is weaker this morning, which has of late, been cause for a stock market rally and reason for commodities, especially the shiny metals, to rise in price. In the economic news arena this morning, the ISM Manufacturing Index for November came in just below expectations, and construction spending was flat for October. Pending homes sales for October were up 3.7% over September’s reading which is quite a bit better than the 1.0% drop anticipated by the experts. This is 9 months in a row now of rising pending home sales.
We’ve talked about this stock market so many times, I’m beginning to sound like a broken record. The bulls on Wall Street just simply are not going to let this market correct, it appears, before the end of the year. November’s gains in the stock market were about 5.7% for the month. There’s no reason to believe traders are going to allow this market to drop before cashing in on their end of the year or quarterly bonuses. Maybe after the first of the year we’ll see the markets correct. However, pricing is as good as it has been at any time in the mortgage business (at least in our life times) so let’s keep selling these great rates!
I will be in the office all day today…Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. This looks like a good day to lock, too, so if you are planning to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know. Have a terrific Tuesday!
The dollar is weaker this morning, which has of late, been cause for a stock market rally and reason for commodities, especially the shiny metals, to rise in price. In the economic news arena this morning, the ISM Manufacturing Index for November came in just below expectations, and construction spending was flat for October. Pending homes sales for October were up 3.7% over September’s reading which is quite a bit better than the 1.0% drop anticipated by the experts. This is 9 months in a row now of rising pending home sales.
We’ve talked about this stock market so many times, I’m beginning to sound like a broken record. The bulls on Wall Street just simply are not going to let this market correct, it appears, before the end of the year. November’s gains in the stock market were about 5.7% for the month. There’s no reason to believe traders are going to allow this market to drop before cashing in on their end of the year or quarterly bonuses. Maybe after the first of the year we’ll see the markets correct. However, pricing is as good as it has been at any time in the mortgage business (at least in our life times) so let’s keep selling these great rates!
I will be in the office all day today…Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. This looks like a good day to lock, too, so if you are planning to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Update #3/ Week of November 23, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! As Templeton would say, we have “A Veritable Smorgasbord” of economic news this morning with apparently few traders on the floor to digest it all. Stock markets may have rallied excitedly if there were someone there to cheer the rally. Good thing for us because credit markets, though a bit lower, could have really suffered much indigestion this morning. Our rates are about .25 better in rebate than they were yesterday, mostly due to yesterday afternoon’s rally in credit markets.
Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report was bumped up a day due to the holiday. This morning we learned that 466K initial jobless claims occurred last week, which is way down from the previous week’s number of 505K (seasonally adjusted) and below expectations of 500K. Pretty exciting news, really. You’d expect this on a shortened week, like this week, but not a normal week like last week. This is the first drop below 500K in over 12 months! Continuing claims dropped nearly 20K, too at 5.42M, below expectations of 5.57M.
In other positive news this morning in regards to economic recovery, personal income for October increased .2% -- besting the .1% anticipated. Personal spending was up .7% in October – besting the .5% anticipated. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased .2% in October, better than the .1% expected. Just a barrage of good news this morning . . . and normally you’d see the stock market taking off like a rocket – but it continues. New home sales figures for October showed an increase of 6.2% from Sept. to an annualized rate of 430K – topping expectations of 404K.
Oil prices were down early in trading, but once the inventory report came out with a rise in inventories, prices moved higher. The dollar is weak again today and gold is setting new highs . . . again. The results of a Treasury auction of 7-year T notes will be released in ½ hour or so. That may have a positive affect on credit markets.
If you want to lock a loan this morning . . . hurry. My pricing desk will be closing down around 1 PM. There will be no rate sheets on Friday, although we will be open, we will be running on a skeleton staff. Have a terrific Wednesday and a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family. I’ll be coming to you next on Monday the 30th.
Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report was bumped up a day due to the holiday. This morning we learned that 466K initial jobless claims occurred last week, which is way down from the previous week’s number of 505K (seasonally adjusted) and below expectations of 500K. Pretty exciting news, really. You’d expect this on a shortened week, like this week, but not a normal week like last week. This is the first drop below 500K in over 12 months! Continuing claims dropped nearly 20K, too at 5.42M, below expectations of 5.57M.
In other positive news this morning in regards to economic recovery, personal income for October increased .2% -- besting the .1% anticipated. Personal spending was up .7% in October – besting the .5% anticipated. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased .2% in October, better than the .1% expected. Just a barrage of good news this morning . . . and normally you’d see the stock market taking off like a rocket – but it continues. New home sales figures for October showed an increase of 6.2% from Sept. to an annualized rate of 430K – topping expectations of 404K.
Oil prices were down early in trading, but once the inventory report came out with a rise in inventories, prices moved higher. The dollar is weak again today and gold is setting new highs . . . again. The results of a Treasury auction of 7-year T notes will be released in ½ hour or so. That may have a positive affect on credit markets.
If you want to lock a loan this morning . . . hurry. My pricing desk will be closing down around 1 PM. There will be no rate sheets on Friday, although we will be open, we will be running on a skeleton staff. Have a terrific Wednesday and a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family. I’ll be coming to you next on Monday the 30th.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Update #1/ Week of November 16, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday. It’s Monday morning and the stock market is off to the races (like 8 of the last 10). The dollar is weak, commodities are on the rise, and companies are reporting good earnings for the 3rd quarter -- same ol’ same ol’. What’s also been “same ‘ol” is improved pricing with the credit markets continuing to make up ground in the midst of these latest trends.
October Advance Retail Sales Report is the main catalyst for the big rally on Wall Street. Total retail sales were up 1.4%, better than the .9% expected. Of course, this is after a drop of 2.9% in September, which is a downwardly revised number as of today. So, it’s hard to tell if we are really any better off now than we were a couple months ago, don’t you think? Statistics can be used many times to skew numbers and news in the direction in which you want to present – and government agencies are masters at this trick. The Empire Man. Survey for November came is below expectations, but who cares, we need a stock market rally, and it is Monday.
We rec’d some encouraging news earlier today out of Asia in regards to their economies slowly making progress toward coming out of recession. Also, business inventory data for September only decreased .4%, not as bad as the .7% decrease analysts were expecting.
I know I’m boring you with numbers now . . . all you care about is the good rates that lenders are offering today. Call me here at the office for off sheet pricing, I have it here for you. I’ll be available all day for your locking pleasure. Email me if you can’t catch me by phone to be sure I get to you and help you get your loan locked or help you with a loan scenario. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
October Advance Retail Sales Report is the main catalyst for the big rally on Wall Street. Total retail sales were up 1.4%, better than the .9% expected. Of course, this is after a drop of 2.9% in September, which is a downwardly revised number as of today. So, it’s hard to tell if we are really any better off now than we were a couple months ago, don’t you think? Statistics can be used many times to skew numbers and news in the direction in which you want to present – and government agencies are masters at this trick. The Empire Man. Survey for November came is below expectations, but who cares, we need a stock market rally, and it is Monday.
We rec’d some encouraging news earlier today out of Asia in regards to their economies slowly making progress toward coming out of recession. Also, business inventory data for September only decreased .4%, not as bad as the .7% decrease analysts were expecting.
I know I’m boring you with numbers now . . . all you care about is the good rates that lenders are offering today. Call me here at the office for off sheet pricing, I have it here for you. I’ll be available all day for your locking pleasure. Email me if you can’t catch me by phone to be sure I get to you and help you get your loan locked or help you with a loan scenario. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Update #2/ Week of November 9, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! After a bull run yesterday on the stock market, traders are dogpaddling like mad to keep their nose above the water line. This morning we’ve been up and down all over the unchanged mark, but neither the bulls or the bears can seem to make any headway -- credit markets are flat as well. Credit markets were surprisingly flat yesterday as equity markets posted some nice gains. .
It’s not typically that way. Usually we can enjoy a refi boon when the stock market is crashing, and when we’re slow with higher rates, we’re often benefitting from a rising equity market for our investments. This phenomenon is one of the great things we all enjoy about being in the industry (those of us that are left). There is an auction of $25B in 10-year T notes this morning, the results of which could have an impact on pricing.
There are no economic news releases today of note. The few minor earnings reports have been mixed, so there have been no fuel for the markets to run. A breather may be in order again for today. The NAR reported this morning that home sales are up 6% nation wide and the average (median) home price nationally is down 11% from Q3 of last year.
San Francisco Fed Chief Yellon yesterday told us that the economic recovery will be slow due to unemployment and lack of consumer’s being able to purchase goods. Wow . . . what a news flash. We used to think our recovery would be a “V” shape, then economists moved to a “U” shaped recovery earlier this year. Most recently we heard talk of a recovery that would be more like a “W”, and yesterday Yellon described the future recover now as a “tilted ‘L’.” What letter is next? I feel like we’re on Sesame Street! “This economic recovery is brought to you by the letters, V, U, W and L.” Anyway . . .
I will be in the office all day today. We have a monthly mortgage sales dept meeting at 2, so I will be unavailable for an hour or so at that time. Have a terrific Tuesday!
It’s not typically that way. Usually we can enjoy a refi boon when the stock market is crashing, and when we’re slow with higher rates, we’re often benefitting from a rising equity market for our investments. This phenomenon is one of the great things we all enjoy about being in the industry (those of us that are left). There is an auction of $25B in 10-year T notes this morning, the results of which could have an impact on pricing.
There are no economic news releases today of note. The few minor earnings reports have been mixed, so there have been no fuel for the markets to run. A breather may be in order again for today. The NAR reported this morning that home sales are up 6% nation wide and the average (median) home price nationally is down 11% from Q3 of last year.
San Francisco Fed Chief Yellon yesterday told us that the economic recovery will be slow due to unemployment and lack of consumer’s being able to purchase goods. Wow . . . what a news flash. We used to think our recovery would be a “V” shape, then economists moved to a “U” shaped recovery earlier this year. Most recently we heard talk of a recovery that would be more like a “W”, and yesterday Yellon described the future recover now as a “tilted ‘L’.” What letter is next? I feel like we’re on Sesame Street! “This economic recovery is brought to you by the letters, V, U, W and L.” Anyway . . .
I will be in the office all day today. We have a monthly mortgage sales dept meeting at 2, so I will be unavailable for an hour or so at that time. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Friday, November 6, 2009
Final Update/ Week of November2, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Yesterday was one of those crazy days when the stock market rallied like a run away fruit cart and credit markets held their own, too. Today, investors are actually giving us a little help with rates, as we are seeing rates improve by about .25 or so in fee on our 30 year conforming product. Fine – we’ll take both, thank you very much!
This morning’s unemployment report provided a mixed picture from the Labor Dept. The reaction on all markets is nil. The Labor Dept reported this morning that non farm payrolls dropped 190,000 jobs in October. That number is better than the 219K losses in September, but worse than the 175K losses analysts were expecting. The unemployment rate rose from 9.9% in September to 10.2% in October – a 26 year high. The previous over-10% unemployment rate was in the early 1980’s when I was in grade school. This is the 22nd straight month of job losses.
Markets are almost mesmerized by the report, as it appears they were expecting something a bit more flamboyant. Maybe they’re just wore out from all the excitement of the last 10 sessions or so and are taking a breather, and an early weekend. Credit markets are improving, though, and rates are good, so who’s complaining?
Call me on my cell phone if I can help you, but realize that I will not be in the office until Monday morning. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
This morning’s unemployment report provided a mixed picture from the Labor Dept. The reaction on all markets is nil. The Labor Dept reported this morning that non farm payrolls dropped 190,000 jobs in October. That number is better than the 219K losses in September, but worse than the 175K losses analysts were expecting. The unemployment rate rose from 9.9% in September to 10.2% in October – a 26 year high. The previous over-10% unemployment rate was in the early 1980’s when I was in grade school. This is the 22nd straight month of job losses.
Markets are almost mesmerized by the report, as it appears they were expecting something a bit more flamboyant. Maybe they’re just wore out from all the excitement of the last 10 sessions or so and are taking a breather, and an early weekend. Credit markets are improving, though, and rates are good, so who’s complaining?
Call me on my cell phone if I can help you, but realize that I will not be in the office until Monday morning. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Update #3/ Week of November 2, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! A decent report from the ADP gives some encouragement to those looking for the unemployment numbers to be released later this week. Bulls on Wall Street are taking advantage of the somewhat good news (basically, the “not bad news”) to sneak in some gains ahead of the FOMC announcement and attempt once again to recoup the losses from last Friday. The Dow shot up right out of the gate on news that the ADP reported job losses of 203,000 from the private sector in the month of October, slightly worse than the 198,000 job losses anticipated. Isn’t that great news!? A stock market rally is definitely in order, don’t you think?
The Dow shot up to about +140 points and then knocked it’s head on that invisible ceiling to which we have so often recently referred. Nobody seems to know where that ceiling is, but when we hit it, we sure have a hard time getting past it for the rest of the day. The ISM Services Index reported a reading of 50.6, not quite the 51.5 widely anticipated and down a bit from the 50.9 in September . . . another reason for the scratching of our cumulative heads watching the stock market rally. We do have a weaker dollar, and that always helps stocks, but this just seems unreasonable.
The credit markets are waiting anxiously for the FOMC statement release due in about and hour and ½ and that could move markets. Everybody expects the Feds to keep lending rates the same, but the statement is always what traders want to read to see where the Feds think we are heading in the future. Rates have actually done pretty well this week, considering all the hoopla. Rates, after losing a little ground yesterday, are an .125 or less in rebate worse this morning. Not too bad. We’ll wait and see how things look in a couple hours.
I will be here all day today to help you out in way I can . . . call me here or better yet email me. Have a terrific Humpday
The Dow shot up to about +140 points and then knocked it’s head on that invisible ceiling to which we have so often recently referred. Nobody seems to know where that ceiling is, but when we hit it, we sure have a hard time getting past it for the rest of the day. The ISM Services Index reported a reading of 50.6, not quite the 51.5 widely anticipated and down a bit from the 50.9 in September . . . another reason for the scratching of our cumulative heads watching the stock market rally. We do have a weaker dollar, and that always helps stocks, but this just seems unreasonable.
The credit markets are waiting anxiously for the FOMC statement release due in about and hour and ½ and that could move markets. Everybody expects the Feds to keep lending rates the same, but the statement is always what traders want to read to see where the Feds think we are heading in the future. Rates have actually done pretty well this week, considering all the hoopla. Rates, after losing a little ground yesterday, are an .125 or less in rebate worse this morning. Not too bad. We’ll wait and see how things look in a couple hours.
I will be here all day today to help you out in way I can . . . call me here or better yet email me. Have a terrific Humpday
Friday, October 30, 2009
Final Update/ Week of October 26, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Boy, have we seen some volatility lately, as expected. The trend of the stock market seems to be downward, but the preliminary GDP reading yesterday gave the bulls reason to cheer and rally yesterday. By the end of the day, though, it seemed a little overdone. Newton told us that for every action there must be an equal and opposite reaction. Yesterday was the reaction from the day previous, and wow . . . today is the reaction from yesterday’s rally! The stock market is giving back almost everything it gained yesterday, and better yet, the credit markets have more than made up their losses of the day previous.
There were a slew of economic reports this morning for traders to digest, but none of them seemed to be able to fuel a rally for equities. Personal income and spending were basically in line with expectations – no surprises there. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in better than expected at a reading of 54.2, when analysts were looking for a number of 49. That’s good, but has no impact on the falling market today. The final reading of the Univ. of Michigan’s Sentiment Index was slightly better than anticipated, but again, nothing to prop the market.
Rates are better than yesterday’s, of course, but only slightly. We haven’t really seen the big swing in mortgage note offerings as investors played it safe when credit markets were improving early this week. Also, this is a Friday, so investors are rarely aggressive with rates, and there is little reaction from the last couple days of equaling moves in the markets. If the stock market can’t stem the losses, money will keep flowing to the credit markets and we may see some improved pricing. More than likely, investors will wait until Monday to get aggressive if the opportunity is still available.
Well, it is a beautiful Autumn day outside! And last day of the month . . . one would think this would be a good day to take the day off. So, I think I will. I will out all day on a previously scheduled day off. You can contact me on my cell phone if I can help you, but I won’t be in the office until Monday a.m. Have a terrific Friday, and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
There were a slew of economic reports this morning for traders to digest, but none of them seemed to be able to fuel a rally for equities. Personal income and spending were basically in line with expectations – no surprises there. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in better than expected at a reading of 54.2, when analysts were looking for a number of 49. That’s good, but has no impact on the falling market today. The final reading of the Univ. of Michigan’s Sentiment Index was slightly better than anticipated, but again, nothing to prop the market.
Rates are better than yesterday’s, of course, but only slightly. We haven’t really seen the big swing in mortgage note offerings as investors played it safe when credit markets were improving early this week. Also, this is a Friday, so investors are rarely aggressive with rates, and there is little reaction from the last couple days of equaling moves in the markets. If the stock market can’t stem the losses, money will keep flowing to the credit markets and we may see some improved pricing. More than likely, investors will wait until Monday to get aggressive if the opportunity is still available.
Well, it is a beautiful Autumn day outside! And last day of the month . . . one would think this would be a good day to take the day off. So, I think I will. I will out all day on a previously scheduled day off. You can contact me on my cell phone if I can help you, but I won’t be in the office until Monday a.m. Have a terrific Friday, and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Update #3/ Week of October 26, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Stocks are struggling once again this morning following a global sell off that took place last night. All markets around the globe were off last night and this morning, except Sydney Australia (gotta hand it to those Aussies). Most international markets were off over 1%. It’s our turn again and the 50+ point loss on the Dow isn’t as noticeable as the nearly 40 point loss on the NASDAQ. This represents an almost 2% drop for the “tech-heavy” NASDAQ after a 1.2% drop yesterday and a .6% drop on Monday. Not huge numbers, but the NASDAQ in particular is off almost 5% from it’s high on 10/19 of 2,176. If today turns out to be a down day for this index, it will be the 6th out of the last 7 trading days that have been losers.
As equity markets trend downward, credit markets are finally reaping some of the benefits. We had an exceptional day yesterday in bond land and the rally continues this morning. We have a ways to go to make up the losses from the last couple weeks, but we seem to be well on our way. Many “experts” in the market place are looking for at least a 10% drop in the stock markets, and we’re not quite at 5% yet. Yesterday’s bond auction of 2-year T’s went well, and it was a big one too -- $44B! Today’s 5-year T’s auction results will be announced at 10:00 . . . in 10 mins.
Bullish traders tried to use the durable goods orders report early on to help rebound the market. Durable goods orders for September increased 1.0% -- in line with expectations. Augusts’ orders were revised downward, though, to a drop of 2.6%. So this month’s number ended up being a nice little pop for that industry. The market took a real turn when New Home Sales for September report was released which show a drop of 38K from it’s annualized pace of 440K units last posted in August. This was a bit of a surprise since the existing home sales numbers were so good earlier and much of the credit was being given to the soon to expire tax credit. Somehow this tax credit didn’t provide as much booster fuel for new home sales as hoped.
Good news is, pricing is about .250 to .375 better in fee than yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have terrific Humpday!
As equity markets trend downward, credit markets are finally reaping some of the benefits. We had an exceptional day yesterday in bond land and the rally continues this morning. We have a ways to go to make up the losses from the last couple weeks, but we seem to be well on our way. Many “experts” in the market place are looking for at least a 10% drop in the stock markets, and we’re not quite at 5% yet. Yesterday’s bond auction of 2-year T’s went well, and it was a big one too -- $44B! Today’s 5-year T’s auction results will be announced at 10:00 . . . in 10 mins.
Bullish traders tried to use the durable goods orders report early on to help rebound the market. Durable goods orders for September increased 1.0% -- in line with expectations. Augusts’ orders were revised downward, though, to a drop of 2.6%. So this month’s number ended up being a nice little pop for that industry. The market took a real turn when New Home Sales for September report was released which show a drop of 38K from it’s annualized pace of 440K units last posted in August. This was a bit of a surprise since the existing home sales numbers were so good earlier and much of the credit was being given to the soon to expire tax credit. Somehow this tax credit didn’t provide as much booster fuel for new home sales as hoped.
Good news is, pricing is about .250 to .375 better in fee than yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have terrific Humpday!
Friday, October 23, 2009
Final Update/ Week of October 19, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! We’ve become accustomed of late to seeing the stock market drop 1%, only to rebound the next day (or by the end of the day) and make up it’s losses. Bulls just don’t want to let this market correct the 5-10% so many analysts are predicting. Yesterday was a recovery of the day before, today a response to yesterday’s over recovery. Today stocks fell out of bed early this morning, and are struggling to get to their feet in the last hour or so. Credit markets fell out of the other side of the bed and are struggling just the same. Fortunately, mortgage rates are flat.
Amazon and Netflix both reported earnings that are creating a lot of excitement on the trading floor today. These companies are benefitting, as we discussed yesterday, from the fact that fewer consumers are going out on the town and are staying home to read a book or watch a good movie. Amazon is setting a 10 year high today on it’s stock price. However, Microsoft, Honeywell, Whirlpool and a slew of other companies are reporting good earnings reports too, widely expected per our conversations recently. Companies are much leaner and have propensity for profit. Those that produced 10,000 units of whatever product with 1000 workers a couple years ago, now are producing 5,000 units with 300 workers. The numbers just make sense and shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
The only economic report of note is September Existing Home sales data which came in at an annualized rate of 5.57M – better than the 5.35M anticipated. It’s sure hard for good news in housing data to get much traction now days with all the bad news everywhere. Although, we did get some good news from one of our investors who lifted the declining markets LTV reduction for our region of the country on it’s Jumbo product. Any stabilization is good news.
Rates aren’t as bad as what they could have been seeing what’s going on in the treasury markets. We did get some nominal price improvements from some of our sources yesterday afternoon, but have given back those gains this morning. We’re pretty much flat on the fees for pricing on our conforming rates today from yesterday morning. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend. It’s supposed to be beautiful weather the next couple days!
Amazon and Netflix both reported earnings that are creating a lot of excitement on the trading floor today. These companies are benefitting, as we discussed yesterday, from the fact that fewer consumers are going out on the town and are staying home to read a book or watch a good movie. Amazon is setting a 10 year high today on it’s stock price. However, Microsoft, Honeywell, Whirlpool and a slew of other companies are reporting good earnings reports too, widely expected per our conversations recently. Companies are much leaner and have propensity for profit. Those that produced 10,000 units of whatever product with 1000 workers a couple years ago, now are producing 5,000 units with 300 workers. The numbers just make sense and shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
The only economic report of note is September Existing Home sales data which came in at an annualized rate of 5.57M – better than the 5.35M anticipated. It’s sure hard for good news in housing data to get much traction now days with all the bad news everywhere. Although, we did get some good news from one of our investors who lifted the declining markets LTV reduction for our region of the country on it’s Jumbo product. Any stabilization is good news.
Rates aren’t as bad as what they could have been seeing what’s going on in the treasury markets. We did get some nominal price improvements from some of our sources yesterday afternoon, but have given back those gains this morning. We’re pretty much flat on the fees for pricing on our conforming rates today from yesterday morning. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend. It’s supposed to be beautiful weather the next couple days!
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Update #4/ Week of October 19, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! The stock market is relatively flat this morning. The Dow, which we typically quote, is being influenced by a few large players that work very well into the formula for the increase it is enjoying this morning. The other more broad based indices are flat after some aggressive selling in the last hour of trading yesterday. Lately we’ve been back to the last hour of trading wild swings that we saw earlier this year and last year. Credit markets are pretty much flat, too, just slightly to the negative side. Our pricing is less than ½ of an 1/8 worse in fee on our conforming 30 year fixed product.
The big earnings reports this morning that are having such a nice influence on the Dow comes from McDonald’s, AT&T, 3M and Travelers. McDonald’s reported a rise in sales globally and in the US. This should be no surprise as this is what economists call an “inferior good.” When money is tight, inferior goods prosper as those that would normally like to go out to the steak house can’t afford it. AT&T is benefitting from it’s partnership with Apple and it’s iPhones – 3.2 million new contracts for them this last quarter with the iPhone. These positive reports have to be compared to not so profitable reports from the likes of Amgen, eBay and Merck. Although these companies beat the street with their earnings, their outlook going forward is cautious.
The economic news releases this morning flash a mixed signal for traders, too. The Leading Economic Indicators report came out this morning with a rise in it’s index for the 6th straight month. It’s rise of 1.0% bested analysts’ expectations of .8% -- that’s good. We’re all ready for these indicators to start blossoming into real growth. Home prices fell .3% in August month-over-month, the first drop in 3 months. Analysts were expecting another increase of .3%. Initial jobless claims report was the real culprit for weakness in trading this morning as it showed an increase of those claiming jobless benefits for the first time. Experts were anticipating a number of 515K, but the actual number was 531K. Continuing claims stayed below 6M, although the week previous was revised to just over the 6M mark. Unemployment doesn’t seem to be dissipating.
With another day of flat rates, we’re going to keep ploughing through the files that we have here in process. We welcome a little break in new locks, just not too long of a break, please. The stock market continues to confound many as to it’s ability to hold on to gains over the last several months. We expect this strength to wane in the weeks to come. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Thursday!
The big earnings reports this morning that are having such a nice influence on the Dow comes from McDonald’s, AT&T, 3M and Travelers. McDonald’s reported a rise in sales globally and in the US. This should be no surprise as this is what economists call an “inferior good.” When money is tight, inferior goods prosper as those that would normally like to go out to the steak house can’t afford it. AT&T is benefitting from it’s partnership with Apple and it’s iPhones – 3.2 million new contracts for them this last quarter with the iPhone. These positive reports have to be compared to not so profitable reports from the likes of Amgen, eBay and Merck. Although these companies beat the street with their earnings, their outlook going forward is cautious.
The economic news releases this morning flash a mixed signal for traders, too. The Leading Economic Indicators report came out this morning with a rise in it’s index for the 6th straight month. It’s rise of 1.0% bested analysts’ expectations of .8% -- that’s good. We’re all ready for these indicators to start blossoming into real growth. Home prices fell .3% in August month-over-month, the first drop in 3 months. Analysts were expecting another increase of .3%. Initial jobless claims report was the real culprit for weakness in trading this morning as it showed an increase of those claiming jobless benefits for the first time. Experts were anticipating a number of 515K, but the actual number was 531K. Continuing claims stayed below 6M, although the week previous was revised to just over the 6M mark. Unemployment doesn’t seem to be dissipating.
With another day of flat rates, we’re going to keep ploughing through the files that we have here in process. We welcome a little break in new locks, just not too long of a break, please. The stock market continues to confound many as to it’s ability to hold on to gains over the last several months. We expect this strength to wane in the weeks to come. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Thursday!
Friday, October 16, 2009
Final Update/ Week of October 12, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Finally we get a little relief in credit markets this morning. The stock market has had an impressive week of gains highlighted by Wednesday’s run up on the Dow of 144 points. Yesterday the bulls were able to hold on to their gains, but today, the task seems to be too great. Equity markets have been bolstered for months now by the large amount of cash traders have to meet every dip. It appears such is the case today. When we hit 9950 on the Dow, there was a definite floor and the bears have had a hard time breaking through that barrier.
For us, credit markets are making up some of the losses we incurred this week, so pricing is slightly better than yesterday. But . . . this is a Friday and investors are typically not aggressive on Fridays, so pricing is pretty flat. Traders have some economic news to digest this morning along with lots of earnings reports. September’s capacity utilization rose to 70.5%, better than the 69.8% anticipated. Industrial production rose .7%, better than the .2% expected. This report has little affect on our world, but may have something to do with stocks stopping their slide.
What helped to perpetuate the slide in the first place was Michigan’s October Consumer Sentiment Survey which disappointed the markets by coming in at 69.4, much lower than the anticipated 73.3. Go figure . . . the stock market has done so well, and 401(k)’s are recovering all over the country and consumer sentiment drops. Crazy. Why do we even bother with these consumer sentiment and confidence reports any way?
Earnings reports from Bank of America and GE are the catalysts that started the plunge this morning (and maybe a little profit taking from the recent run up). General Electric actually beat the street, but comments about it’s Capital division (mortgage) and overall quality of the report caused disappointment.
Maybe it’s all a good excuse for investors and fund managers to shuffle their portfolios and take a little money off the table. As far as pricing goes, we basically stopped the bleeding from earlier this week with today’s pricing. Our conforming prices are about ½ of 1/8 better than yesterday . . . at least they’re not worse. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
For us, credit markets are making up some of the losses we incurred this week, so pricing is slightly better than yesterday. But . . . this is a Friday and investors are typically not aggressive on Fridays, so pricing is pretty flat. Traders have some economic news to digest this morning along with lots of earnings reports. September’s capacity utilization rose to 70.5%, better than the 69.8% anticipated. Industrial production rose .7%, better than the .2% expected. This report has little affect on our world, but may have something to do with stocks stopping their slide.
What helped to perpetuate the slide in the first place was Michigan’s October Consumer Sentiment Survey which disappointed the markets by coming in at 69.4, much lower than the anticipated 73.3. Go figure . . . the stock market has done so well, and 401(k)’s are recovering all over the country and consumer sentiment drops. Crazy. Why do we even bother with these consumer sentiment and confidence reports any way?
Earnings reports from Bank of America and GE are the catalysts that started the plunge this morning (and maybe a little profit taking from the recent run up). General Electric actually beat the street, but comments about it’s Capital division (mortgage) and overall quality of the report caused disappointment.
Maybe it’s all a good excuse for investors and fund managers to shuffle their portfolios and take a little money off the table. As far as pricing goes, we basically stopped the bleeding from earlier this week with today’s pricing. Our conforming prices are about ½ of 1/8 better than yesterday . . . at least they’re not worse. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Friday, October 9, 2009
Final Update/ Week of October 5, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Rates are changing a bit…the ongoing battle between equities and mortgage backed securities continues!
The stock market is in positive territory again today . . . a stellar week for equities. The very happily surprising thing that occurred this week is that rates actually got better as the stock market made gains. We have been very lucky of late. Today is the Friday before a 3-day weekend, and credit markets typically run for cover. Stocks started their upward movement this morning and credit markets have just slid all morning. Rates are delayed late due to the fact that several of our sources have repriced already, and I wanted you to get the most updated rates. I’ll forward them as soon as I get them.
Ben Bernanke started things off last night when he made comments after the closing bell that the Fed will have to keep rates low for an extended period of time, but at some time in the future, they’ll have to tighten monetary policy (raise rates). This should have come as no surprise, but his comments have bolstered the dollar, caused commodities to drop and have put added pressure on the bond market today.
As I mentioned, today is the Friday before a 3 day weekend. We will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day, and will be back in the office on Tuesday ready to go. Credit markets should recover a bit next week, too
I’ll be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing long weekend!
The stock market is in positive territory again today . . . a stellar week for equities. The very happily surprising thing that occurred this week is that rates actually got better as the stock market made gains. We have been very lucky of late. Today is the Friday before a 3-day weekend, and credit markets typically run for cover. Stocks started their upward movement this morning and credit markets have just slid all morning. Rates are delayed late due to the fact that several of our sources have repriced already, and I wanted you to get the most updated rates. I’ll forward them as soon as I get them.
Ben Bernanke started things off last night when he made comments after the closing bell that the Fed will have to keep rates low for an extended period of time, but at some time in the future, they’ll have to tighten monetary policy (raise rates). This should have come as no surprise, but his comments have bolstered the dollar, caused commodities to drop and have put added pressure on the bond market today.
As I mentioned, today is the Friday before a 3 day weekend. We will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day, and will be back in the office on Tuesday ready to go. Credit markets should recover a bit next week, too
I’ll be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing long weekend!
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Update #3/ Week of October 5, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Today is quite a volatile day on Wall Street with another void in economic news releases. The upwardly mobile bulls have taken advantage of light news and light volume so far this week to eek out some gains and make up the losses from last week. It appears that they are going to have a tough time continuing their rally today. Meanwhile, credit markets are improving and we’ve made up some of the losses in pricing that we experienced earlier this week, too. So what could be better? Stock market gets some gains, and we get better pricing – fine.
The weak dollar has rebounded a bit this morning, putting pressure on stocks. Gold prices are poised to set a new record price again today. Oil inventories are down a bit, but gas inventories are up more than expected. As we mentioned yesterday, earnings season officially kicks off tonight, so the next few weeks are going to be wild. Companies are going to be putting the shine on as they deliver their earnings. Most companies are expected to have positive earnings reports, but those in the know realize that this is mostly due to cut backs and lay offs, not necessarily increased revenue.
Credit markets have already experienced the gains we had forecasted, and don’t expect rates to get significantly better from here. This is a great time to lock, and we are getting really busy again…thank Goodness! J
I will be in office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Humpday!
The weak dollar has rebounded a bit this morning, putting pressure on stocks. Gold prices are poised to set a new record price again today. Oil inventories are down a bit, but gas inventories are up more than expected. As we mentioned yesterday, earnings season officially kicks off tonight, so the next few weeks are going to be wild. Companies are going to be putting the shine on as they deliver their earnings. Most companies are expected to have positive earnings reports, but those in the know realize that this is mostly due to cut backs and lay offs, not necessarily increased revenue.
Credit markets have already experienced the gains we had forecasted, and don’t expect rates to get significantly better from here. This is a great time to lock, and we are getting really busy again…thank Goodness! J
I will be in office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Update #2/ Week of September 28, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Wow . . . what an exciting afternoon we had yesterday! Can you believe this pricing? As we’ve seen so many times in the past, we get an afternoon price improvement, followed by a little pull back the next morning. However, how often do we see the stock market rally and the credit markets improve significantly in the same afternoon? That’s what happened yesterday, and this morning we’re seeing a little caution. The cautious mood in credit markets is due to the quick start the stock market had and in the first ½ hour of trading this morning. It appeared we were off to another rally in equities, and credit markets took a step back to see what would happen.
The positive tone on Wall Street this morning was due to some economic news that hit the wires early. First of all, we had the IMF revise their forecast for the world economy for 2009 and 2010 from it’s previous prediction in July. They changed their outlook from a decline of 1.4% in 2009 to a drop of only 1.0%, and their 2010 forecast from a growth of 2.5% to a positive 3.0%. This story put traders in a good mood going into the opening bell.
Then we rec’d word from the S&P Case/Schiller about home prices in our country. In it’s 20-city composite, it’s home price index reported that we only dropped 13.3% in July compared to the same month last year. Isn’t that great news!?!?! Experts were looking for a drop of 14.2% -- and the spin doctors are doing their best to make this out to be a positive thing. We’re sinking, but not as quickly as we thought we were.
Thus, things are good and the stock market continued it’s rally from yesterday . . . that is, until the Consumer Confidence report came out from the Conference Board. It’s index for September came in at 53.1, just below the 54.1 in August, but considerably below the 57.0 anticipated by the experts. Hence, the stock market began to sell off and credit markets are creeping positively back to the unchanged mark.
Pricing has taken a bit of a hit, but not too bad. We’re somewhere in between where we started yesterday and where we finished. The Confumbo 5/1 ARM several of you were asking about yesterday has actually improved. Take a look on page 2 and you will see what I’m talking about.
I’ll be in the office all day and as long as you need me to be in order to get your loans locked. Be sure to call me here or email me to let me know your lock is coming and I’ll be sure to get it locked for you. Have a terrific Tuesday!
The positive tone on Wall Street this morning was due to some economic news that hit the wires early. First of all, we had the IMF revise their forecast for the world economy for 2009 and 2010 from it’s previous prediction in July. They changed their outlook from a decline of 1.4% in 2009 to a drop of only 1.0%, and their 2010 forecast from a growth of 2.5% to a positive 3.0%. This story put traders in a good mood going into the opening bell.
Then we rec’d word from the S&P Case/Schiller about home prices in our country. In it’s 20-city composite, it’s home price index reported that we only dropped 13.3% in July compared to the same month last year. Isn’t that great news!?!?! Experts were looking for a drop of 14.2% -- and the spin doctors are doing their best to make this out to be a positive thing. We’re sinking, but not as quickly as we thought we were.
Thus, things are good and the stock market continued it’s rally from yesterday . . . that is, until the Consumer Confidence report came out from the Conference Board. It’s index for September came in at 53.1, just below the 54.1 in August, but considerably below the 57.0 anticipated by the experts. Hence, the stock market began to sell off and credit markets are creeping positively back to the unchanged mark.
Pricing has taken a bit of a hit, but not too bad. We’re somewhere in between where we started yesterday and where we finished. The Confumbo 5/1 ARM several of you were asking about yesterday has actually improved. Take a look on page 2 and you will see what I’m talking about.
I’ll be in the office all day and as long as you need me to be in order to get your loans locked. Be sure to call me here or email me to let me know your lock is coming and I’ll be sure to get it locked for you. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, September 28, 2009
Update #1/ week of September 28, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! What’s happening in the stock market this morning? Good question . . . there’s no economic news releases today, and no corporate announcements of note. The only thing that’s happening of any positive consequence is some M&A activity. Mergers and Acquisitions are viewed as a positive scenario for the stock market as it shows companies have money and are willing to spend it based on a bright outlook for the future. On the other hand, this is a good time to pick up companies that need some help or are “on the bubble.”
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Update #1/ week of September 28, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! What’s happening in the stock market this morning? Good question . . . there’s no economic news releases today, and no corporate announcements of note. The only thing that’s happening of any positive consequence is some M&A activity. Mergers and Acquisitions are viewed as a positive scenario for the stock market as it shows companies have money and are willing to spend it based on a bright outlook for the future. On the other hand, this is a good time to pick up companies that need some help or are “on the bubble.”
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Friday, September 25, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of September 21, 2009
Welcome to all new subscribers, Good Morning and Happy Friday! It looks like today may be a real good day for us if the stock market continues to slide. Credit markets are rallying as I write this, and if this pattern continues, we should get some improvement in pricing today. The stock market had it’s first back to back losing session since the beginning of the month. Today’s loss would make it 3 days in a row, and that hasn’t happened for quite some time. It appears the Bears on Wall Street are finally winning the tug-o’-war.
The batch of economic news released this morning was mostly negative. In fact, the only bright spot of the morning’s financial news releases was consumer confidence -- just hilarious. The consumer continues to feel confident about the future even though they are not putting their wallets where their mouths are. Have we already said that several times?
Durable Goods Orders for August came in down 2.4%, far worse than the .4% increase for which the “experts” were looking. Even more, this is down from July’s revised increase of 4.8%. Looking back, July was sure a good month in many respects, but August is having a hard time keeping pace. New Home Sales report came in with an increase of .7% over July. It’s annualized rate of 429K units fell short though, of analysts’ expectations of 440K units.
Stocks are struggling to minimize the loses this morning so far . . . and we are seeing an “equal and opposite reaction” in credit markets . . . may the trend continue throughout the day. So far this morning’s initial rate offerings have bested (though slightly) the improved pricing from yesterday afternoon.
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Also, be sure to email me when you’re faxing over a lock request so I can be sure it gets locked. If I don’t hear from you today, have a terrific Friday and a very restful and enjoyable weekend!
The batch of economic news released this morning was mostly negative. In fact, the only bright spot of the morning’s financial news releases was consumer confidence -- just hilarious. The consumer continues to feel confident about the future even though they are not putting their wallets where their mouths are. Have we already said that several times?
Durable Goods Orders for August came in down 2.4%, far worse than the .4% increase for which the “experts” were looking. Even more, this is down from July’s revised increase of 4.8%. Looking back, July was sure a good month in many respects, but August is having a hard time keeping pace. New Home Sales report came in with an increase of .7% over July. It’s annualized rate of 429K units fell short though, of analysts’ expectations of 440K units.
Stocks are struggling to minimize the loses this morning so far . . . and we are seeing an “equal and opposite reaction” in credit markets . . . may the trend continue throughout the day. So far this morning’s initial rate offerings have bested (though slightly) the improved pricing from yesterday afternoon.
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Also, be sure to email me when you’re faxing over a lock request so I can be sure it gets locked. If I don’t hear from you today, have a terrific Friday and a very restful and enjoyable weekend!
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Financial Update #2. Week of September 21, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! It’s hard to believe the stock market is rallying again today, but it’s true. After losing just over 40 points yesterday, the Dow has recouped all of that plus some. We lost a little ground on pricing yesterday, even with the losses in equities, and we’re losing a bit more again today. Each week we wait for the correction, but there seems to be plenty of money out there for traders to spend, and each dip is met with buying up those deals.
There’s a lot of talk about the weak dollar today and that is creating a boon for commodities. Gold hits another record today at $1,016 an ounce. This is the same pattern that happened just before the dot com bust several years ago. The Feds are meeting today and are due to release their decision on interest rates tomorrow late morning. There are no surprises expected in either the decision to change rates or in their comments afterwards. I mean really, what else would they say? The worst seems to be behind us, financial markets are stabilizing, we see encouraging signs in certain sectors of the economy. Our national economy is weak but not at the bottom, and we are in for a long recovery. Same ‘ol, same ‘ol . . . and thus we have general calm in stock and credit markets today.
Home prices for July saw a minor increase of .3%, not quite the .5% analysts were expecting, but a good sign. Of course, it is in the middle of Summer and we’re only comparing that number to the dismal number reported the month previous. The Treasury is auctioning off a batch of 2 year notes today, so we may have some movement in credit markets from this event – the announcement is due in about 10 mins. More than likely, all markets will float along today and tomorrow until the Fed decision is released, and even then there probably won’t be any major reaction.
I will be in the office all day today. Our jumbo products are really knockin’ it out of the park right now. Call me here or email me if I can help you out in any way, and have a terrific Tuesday!
There’s a lot of talk about the weak dollar today and that is creating a boon for commodities. Gold hits another record today at $1,016 an ounce. This is the same pattern that happened just before the dot com bust several years ago. The Feds are meeting today and are due to release their decision on interest rates tomorrow late morning. There are no surprises expected in either the decision to change rates or in their comments afterwards. I mean really, what else would they say? The worst seems to be behind us, financial markets are stabilizing, we see encouraging signs in certain sectors of the economy. Our national economy is weak but not at the bottom, and we are in for a long recovery. Same ‘ol, same ‘ol . . . and thus we have general calm in stock and credit markets today.
Home prices for July saw a minor increase of .3%, not quite the .5% analysts were expecting, but a good sign. Of course, it is in the middle of Summer and we’re only comparing that number to the dismal number reported the month previous. The Treasury is auctioning off a batch of 2 year notes today, so we may have some movement in credit markets from this event – the announcement is due in about 10 mins. More than likely, all markets will float along today and tomorrow until the Fed decision is released, and even then there probably won’t be any major reaction.
I will be in the office all day today. Our jumbo products are really knockin’ it out of the park right now. Call me here or email me if I can help you out in any way, and have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, September 21, 2009
Financial Update #1/ Week of September 21, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday!
There are no major news releases this morning except for a report of the leading indicators for August which showed an increase, but not as much of an increase as analysts were expecting. This may have had something to do with the turn around this morning, but this is a pattern we keep seeing over and over again. The stock market dropped off a cliff at the opening bell this morning, but the bulls were right there to snatch up the drop and bring us back almost to even within a couple hours. One of these days, we think, the bulls won’t be there to buy in and we’ll continue the slide for a near 10% correction. Maybe it will start this week.
Jumbo Financing is BACK, to $1,000,000 on 5/1 ARM offerings…email or call for details!
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
There are no major news releases this morning except for a report of the leading indicators for August which showed an increase, but not as much of an increase as analysts were expecting. This may have had something to do with the turn around this morning, but this is a pattern we keep seeing over and over again. The stock market dropped off a cliff at the opening bell this morning, but the bulls were right there to snatch up the drop and bring us back almost to even within a couple hours. One of these days, we think, the bulls won’t be there to buy in and we’ll continue the slide for a near 10% correction. Maybe it will start this week.
Jumbo Financing is BACK, to $1,000,000 on 5/1 ARM offerings…email or call for details!
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
Friday, September 18, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of September 14, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Friday! Today brings us the unemployment numbers for the individual states. California actually DOESN’T lead the nation in total layoffs this month. In July our state laid off 38K workers, in August that number dropped to 12K (maybe there’s fewer jobs available to lay off). The rate of unemployment rose to 12.2%, but thankfully, the number of layoffs decreased significantly. We are one of 42 states who’s unemployment rate rose again in August. Some pundits are predicting that the unemployment rate will crest by the end of the year or early next year. Yet, Reuters reported yesterday that Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman said that “unemployment in the U.S. will peak in early 2011 because of a slow and painful recovery from the global economic crisis.” This is that 800 pound gorilla we’ve talked about before that’s standing over there in the corner about which nobody wants to talk.
We did end up having a good day in credit markets yesterday, and are giving back some of our gains today. Even still, our pricing this morning is about .25 better in rebate than yesterday morning’s note offerings. The stock market continues to impress as bulls seem to step up and buy in at every dip. How long can they continue to do this? I don’t know, but one thing’s for sure, rates improve significantly with every time we have a serious drop in stock prices. The Dow has gained about 2% this week, and 7% in the last 10 trading days . . . with only 2 down days during this stretch. Impressive to say the least.
There are no other economic news releases and no corporate announcements on the docket today. Since options and futures contracts do expire today, we’ll likely see some volatility in the equity markets Monday. Hopefully we’ll get back some of our progress in credit markets from yesterday.
I will be in the office all day today catching up on yesterday’s biz and handling the new business of the day. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
We did end up having a good day in credit markets yesterday, and are giving back some of our gains today. Even still, our pricing this morning is about .25 better in rebate than yesterday morning’s note offerings. The stock market continues to impress as bulls seem to step up and buy in at every dip. How long can they continue to do this? I don’t know, but one thing’s for sure, rates improve significantly with every time we have a serious drop in stock prices. The Dow has gained about 2% this week, and 7% in the last 10 trading days . . . with only 2 down days during this stretch. Impressive to say the least.
There are no other economic news releases and no corporate announcements on the docket today. Since options and futures contracts do expire today, we’ll likely see some volatility in the equity markets Monday. Hopefully we’ll get back some of our progress in credit markets from yesterday.
I will be in the office all day today catching up on yesterday’s biz and handling the new business of the day. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Financial Update #2/ Week of September 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! We’ve been in a “trough” in equity markets for several days now. The Dow, for example, closed at 9,627 on Thursday, and we closed at 9,626 yesterday afternoon. This morning we’ve been all over the unchanged mark with some major economic reports hitting the wires earlier today. One has to ask, this trough won’t last for long . . . and when we break out of it (considering the last 8 weeks of gains) which way are we going to break? Chances are leaning toward downward, with the history of September trading as we know it.
One evidence for the argument that stocks are not going to break higher is the reaction to this morning’s retail sales report. It was reported this morning that August retail sales rose 2.7%, well ahead of the 1.9% increase anticipated by the experts. We all know that the Cash for Clunkers program had much to do with this big jump, but analysts were already taking that into account. The retail sales numbers less the auto industry still showed impressive gains. Since consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the GDP, you’d think the stock market would rally off the charts.
This sales report was somewhat tempered by the August PPI which came in with a 1.7% increase over July’s figures. This was quite a surprise to the experts also who were looking for an increase of .8%. Inflation is a big worry for economists and investors going forward, and a big number like this on the producer side means that they will be passing this cost on to the consumer in the months to come. The Empire Manufacturing Survey posted it’s 6th straight monthly improvement at 18.9 for September, better than the 15.0 for which analysts were looking.
All of this is having a mixed reaction in both markets . . . we’ll call it basically flat. Pricing for us, unfortunately, has worsened about .25 to .375 in rebate from yesterday morning’s note offerings. Financial institutions do not want to hear anything about inflation when they are getting locks in at 4.75% interest rate on 30 year commitments! A healthy 3% inflation year over year would nearly wipe out the profit on these securites in a matter of a few years, and then these mortgage notes will basically be worthless, and consumers won’t want to refinance to give up their great rate. Last week was a good week for rates even with the stock market on the rise. This week, it’s just not the case.
I will be in the office all day today for your pricing and loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
One evidence for the argument that stocks are not going to break higher is the reaction to this morning’s retail sales report. It was reported this morning that August retail sales rose 2.7%, well ahead of the 1.9% increase anticipated by the experts. We all know that the Cash for Clunkers program had much to do with this big jump, but analysts were already taking that into account. The retail sales numbers less the auto industry still showed impressive gains. Since consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the GDP, you’d think the stock market would rally off the charts.
This sales report was somewhat tempered by the August PPI which came in with a 1.7% increase over July’s figures. This was quite a surprise to the experts also who were looking for an increase of .8%. Inflation is a big worry for economists and investors going forward, and a big number like this on the producer side means that they will be passing this cost on to the consumer in the months to come. The Empire Manufacturing Survey posted it’s 6th straight monthly improvement at 18.9 for September, better than the 15.0 for which analysts were looking.
All of this is having a mixed reaction in both markets . . . we’ll call it basically flat. Pricing for us, unfortunately, has worsened about .25 to .375 in rebate from yesterday morning’s note offerings. Financial institutions do not want to hear anything about inflation when they are getting locks in at 4.75% interest rate on 30 year commitments! A healthy 3% inflation year over year would nearly wipe out the profit on these securites in a matter of a few years, and then these mortgage notes will basically be worthless, and consumers won’t want to refinance to give up their great rate. Last week was a good week for rates even with the stock market on the rise. This week, it’s just not the case.
I will be in the office all day today for your pricing and loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, September 14, 2009
Financial Update #1/ Week of September 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! The stock market is surprisingly flat this morning leading up to the President’s address to Wall Street which just wrapped up. Asian markets started the negative tone early this morning which carried over to European markets. China is upset about some punitive sanctions we just slapped down on their tire imports, so they are threatening to restrict importing to us their chickens and auto parts. Do we not have enough chickens in our country to feed all of us? I guess not, what do I know.
I do know that the President’s speech to Wall Street in respect to the financial industry calls for more government, more oversight, higher capitalization and liquidity for banks, more rules and regulations . . . and the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Financials are the laggards this morning as expected, and thus far as I mentioned above the markets are amazingly flat. We’ll have to wait, I guess, for a bit to see what the reaction is to the speech once all the pundits come out with their spins.
Pricing is slightly worse than Friday morning’s pricing, and almost mirrors the pricing of last Thursday morning. Rates have pretty much been in a tight trading range for several days now awaiting a breakthrough we hope soon. I will be in the office all day today, please call me or email me here if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
I do know that the President’s speech to Wall Street in respect to the financial industry calls for more government, more oversight, higher capitalization and liquidity for banks, more rules and regulations . . . and the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Financials are the laggards this morning as expected, and thus far as I mentioned above the markets are amazingly flat. We’ll have to wait, I guess, for a bit to see what the reaction is to the speech once all the pundits come out with their spins.
Pricing is slightly worse than Friday morning’s pricing, and almost mirrors the pricing of last Thursday morning. Rates have pretty much been in a tight trading range for several days now awaiting a breakthrough we hope soon. I will be in the office all day today, please call me or email me here if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
Friday, September 11, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of September 07, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! The Stock markets struggle to hold to gains and score their 6th winning day in a row. Though the daily gains have been minimal, the fact that the equity markets have been consistently positive since July 10th is truly wonderful. Every downturn has been met with buying interest and the stock market continues to climb upward and onward. Analysts have been saying that we’re in for a correction for weeks now, but it’s yet to happen. The really terrific news in all of this is that rates have continued to fall during this same time period.
On that July 10th morning, 4.875% was a cost of .199 on our 30 year conforming product. Today, we’re giving a rebate of (.630) – that really is quite amazing, in light of the fact that the Dow has risen 20% in that same time frame. We’ll take it though, we sure need to get the volume going. Today’s 4.625% is only slightly more than .500 cost and the magic 4.5% is a cost of .941 – less than 1 point! Who’d have thought? On the 10/1 ARM, 4.5% is only a .334 cost. Credit markets are improving again today, investors are still stingy, being a Friday, so one has to wonder what next week holds for us.
The stock market turned positive this morning when the Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reported a number that beat expectations. Always a crack up for me to see traders get excited about how consumers feel at the moment. Consumers might feel good about the future of the economy, but they certainly aren’t putting their money where their hearts are! Inventories fell a bit more than expected also, and that is a positive for businesses nation wide.
I’ll be in the office all morning, but will be out this afternoon. Have a terrific Friday and a very relaxing and enjoyable weekend!
On that July 10th morning, 4.875% was a cost of .199 on our 30 year conforming product. Today, we’re giving a rebate of (.630) – that really is quite amazing, in light of the fact that the Dow has risen 20% in that same time frame. We’ll take it though, we sure need to get the volume going. Today’s 4.625% is only slightly more than .500 cost and the magic 4.5% is a cost of .941 – less than 1 point! Who’d have thought? On the 10/1 ARM, 4.5% is only a .334 cost. Credit markets are improving again today, investors are still stingy, being a Friday, so one has to wonder what next week holds for us.
The stock market turned positive this morning when the Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reported a number that beat expectations. Always a crack up for me to see traders get excited about how consumers feel at the moment. Consumers might feel good about the future of the economy, but they certainly aren’t putting their money where their hearts are! Inventories fell a bit more than expected also, and that is a positive for businesses nation wide.
I’ll be in the office all morning, but will be out this afternoon. Have a terrific Friday and a very relaxing and enjoyable weekend!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Update #3/ Week of September 7, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! European stock markets reversed the downward trend of the Asian markets early this morning and set the stage for a positive opening for US equities. There are only a couple potential catalysts for the market to digest later this morning. One of these events is the results from the $20 billion auction of 10 year Treasury notes that is expected in about 20 mins. Demand has been strong for short term investment vehicles of late helping our rates on the mortgage ARM’s to remain very low. Our fixed rates this morning are actually slightly better than this time yesterday.
The other catalyst that might have an impact on equity markets is the release of the Fed’s Beige Book due at about 11:00 AM. This report has a big impact on what the Fed’s do when it comes time to raise or lower rates. Nobody expects any change in the near future, but the head of the Chicago Fed said that when they do raise rates, it will be substantial and quick in an attempt to keep a “hawkish eye” on inflation. That will be potentially devastation for the housing recovery, but keeping inflation in check is the Fed’s number one job, even to the detriment of the housing market.
FYI, the 5/1 ARM product is now strictly below 4% and looking like it will hover below 4% for a while….
I will be in the office all day today, although I will be in our monthly mortgage meeting for an hour starting at 1PM. Otherwise, I will be available by phone or email. Call me and let’s get some business going! And . . . have a terrific Humpday!
The other catalyst that might have an impact on equity markets is the release of the Fed’s Beige Book due at about 11:00 AM. This report has a big impact on what the Fed’s do when it comes time to raise or lower rates. Nobody expects any change in the near future, but the head of the Chicago Fed said that when they do raise rates, it will be substantial and quick in an attempt to keep a “hawkish eye” on inflation. That will be potentially devastation for the housing recovery, but keeping inflation in check is the Fed’s number one job, even to the detriment of the housing market.
FYI, the 5/1 ARM product is now strictly below 4% and looking like it will hover below 4% for a while….
I will be in the office all day today, although I will be in our monthly mortgage meeting for an hour starting at 1PM. Otherwise, I will be available by phone or email. Call me and let’s get some business going! And . . . have a terrific Humpday!
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Financial Update #4 (of 5)/ Week of August 31, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Markets have been pretty flat the last couple days, presently the Dow is up 30 points making up its loss of 30 points yesterday. Credit markets improved yesterday throughout the day, but are giving back some of their gains this morning. We’re about (.125) worse on rebate this morning than we were yesterday morning at this time. Don’t look for investors to be real aggressive with pricing going into a 3-day weekend. Coming off a 3-day weekend, though, is a much different story, but we’ll have to see how that all plays out next week.
Early this morning the Shanghai Composite Index, which made big news on Monday when it dropped 7%, made up a huge portion of their earlier losses with a rally which resulted in a 4.8% gain. Markets around the world have stabilized on this rally. US equity markets had a bit of a drop this morning when this week’s Initial Jobless Claims was reported at 570K. This is slightly higher than analysts’ expectations, but the Continuing Claims report showed a rise of 9 million from the week previous. These numbers are supposed to be dropping. Remember, employers will get as much out of their present workers as possible, we saw that yesterday with the productivity report. Then, when the economy starts coming back, they’ll higher temps and that will continue for months. It will be some time before employers start hiring full time employees again.
The August ISM Services Index came in at 48.4, still below the even 50 mark, but it’s this is the best reading in a year, and in line with expectations. As I mentioned above, most traders on the equity and credit markets are going to be setting their sights on the last weekend of the Summer soon, so volume will be light, and there shouldn’t be much movement today. We’re not completely clear for the weekend, though. Tomorrow’s unemployment report will likely have some impact on the markets, and rates.
I will be in the office all day to day. Email me or call me here at the office if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
Early this morning the Shanghai Composite Index, which made big news on Monday when it dropped 7%, made up a huge portion of their earlier losses with a rally which resulted in a 4.8% gain. Markets around the world have stabilized on this rally. US equity markets had a bit of a drop this morning when this week’s Initial Jobless Claims was reported at 570K. This is slightly higher than analysts’ expectations, but the Continuing Claims report showed a rise of 9 million from the week previous. These numbers are supposed to be dropping. Remember, employers will get as much out of their present workers as possible, we saw that yesterday with the productivity report. Then, when the economy starts coming back, they’ll higher temps and that will continue for months. It will be some time before employers start hiring full time employees again.
The August ISM Services Index came in at 48.4, still below the even 50 mark, but it’s this is the best reading in a year, and in line with expectations. As I mentioned above, most traders on the equity and credit markets are going to be setting their sights on the last weekend of the Summer soon, so volume will be light, and there shouldn’t be much movement today. We’re not completely clear for the weekend, though. Tomorrow’s unemployment report will likely have some impact on the markets, and rates.
I will be in the office all day to day. Email me or call me here at the office if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
Update #3 (of 5)/ week of August 31, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! My apologies in advance to all of you that are cat lovers, but I just don’t get to use this economic expression very often and today is definitely a day for this expression. After a 186 point drop yesterday in the Dow, we have a dead cat bounce this morning, which means there is no bounce and there is no continued drop. What a strange use of the word “cat”. . . don’t you think? Anyway, good for us . . . investors did not chase the market yesterday as the stock market dropped – we rec’d no price improvements from anyone. Yet, as the rebound did not happen this morning, we are getting the benefit as pricing is about .375 better in rebate on most note rates on the 30 year fixed conforming product.
This morning’s ADP Employment Change Report came in worse than expected. Analysts were looking for job losses of 250K, and the number was considerably higher – 298,000 private sector job losses in August. Analysts are now scrambling to adjust their expectations for Friday’s official unemployment report from the Labor Dept. If there is a bright spot in this report, it would be that 360K (a revised number) jobs were lost in July, so the 298K is quite an improvement. Worker productivity is up, which is to expected. If employers are laying off workers, and not hiring . . . then they’re probably getting more work out of those employees that are left. Employees are working harder and longer hours so they aren’t the next casualty. That makes sense, eh?
Factory orders for July came in lower than expected, but still garnered an increase of 1.3%. Analysts were expecting 2.2%, but it is up from the .9% mark in June (which was revised lower to .4%). Rates are sure getting better. Our 4.875% rate today has a substantial rebate of (.369) and our 4.75% on the 30 year conforming product has a small cost of only .279! Nice! In case you’re wondering . . . 4.625 is still a substantial cost of 1.392 . . . and 4.5% will cost you 1.78 . . . so these 2 magical note rates are still a ways off.
I will be in the office all day today. I would suppose today would be a good day to lock, since we did kind of hit a plateau in the stock market. Yet, with the unemployment report coming out Friday, and the spook we rec’d from the ADP this morning . . . we could certainly see more selling in equities. The week after Labor Day has traditionally been an excellent week for rates. If you do want to lock today, email me before faxing over your rate lock, and I’ll get your loan locked for you. Have a terrific Humpday!
This morning’s ADP Employment Change Report came in worse than expected. Analysts were looking for job losses of 250K, and the number was considerably higher – 298,000 private sector job losses in August. Analysts are now scrambling to adjust their expectations for Friday’s official unemployment report from the Labor Dept. If there is a bright spot in this report, it would be that 360K (a revised number) jobs were lost in July, so the 298K is quite an improvement. Worker productivity is up, which is to expected. If employers are laying off workers, and not hiring . . . then they’re probably getting more work out of those employees that are left. Employees are working harder and longer hours so they aren’t the next casualty. That makes sense, eh?
Factory orders for July came in lower than expected, but still garnered an increase of 1.3%. Analysts were expecting 2.2%, but it is up from the .9% mark in June (which was revised lower to .4%). Rates are sure getting better. Our 4.875% rate today has a substantial rebate of (.369) and our 4.75% on the 30 year conforming product has a small cost of only .279! Nice! In case you’re wondering . . . 4.625 is still a substantial cost of 1.392 . . . and 4.5% will cost you 1.78 . . . so these 2 magical note rates are still a ways off.
I will be in the office all day today. I would suppose today would be a good day to lock, since we did kind of hit a plateau in the stock market. Yet, with the unemployment report coming out Friday, and the spook we rec’d from the ADP this morning . . . we could certainly see more selling in equities. The week after Labor Day has traditionally been an excellent week for rates. If you do want to lock today, email me before faxing over your rate lock, and I’ll get your loan locked for you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Update #2/ Week of August 31, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! We talked yesterday about the sell off that started in Asia Monday morning which carried over to us, and then back around the globe . . . we continue to drop like a Pachinko game. Even though the Shanghai market was able to bounce back 1.1% after losing 7% the day before, European markets were down early today between 1 - 2%. Like it or not, we’re part of a global economy now and markets around the world do have an ever increasing affect on our markets. All three of the major equity indices are down nearly 2% right out of the gate. September, historically, is not a good month for stock markets, and our markets are poised for a pull back anyway after having risen 14% in 10 weeks.
As expected, this is having a beneficial influence on rates. Our 30 year fixed is slightly better today than yesterday, but take a look at the 4.75% note offering – just a little more the .500 cost now. Nice! There were three economic reports this morning. Interesting that two of the three were positive for the economy, but the bulls just can’t seem to stop the selling. The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 52.9, beating expectations and up from 48.9 in July. Construction spending was down .2% from the month previous, slightly worse than the flat line analysts were expecting. Pending home sales for July were up 3.2% -- besting experts’ anticipated number of a 1.5% rise.
Today’s sell off is long overdue, and we hope this continues for a few weeks. If you need me, call me or email me here at the office. I’ll be here all day, up until 3:30 when I need to be at the eye doctor. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know your lock is coming over the fax. Have a terrific Tuesday!
As expected, this is having a beneficial influence on rates. Our 30 year fixed is slightly better today than yesterday, but take a look at the 4.75% note offering – just a little more the .500 cost now. Nice! There were three economic reports this morning. Interesting that two of the three were positive for the economy, but the bulls just can’t seem to stop the selling. The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 52.9, beating expectations and up from 48.9 in July. Construction spending was down .2% from the month previous, slightly worse than the flat line analysts were expecting. Pending home sales for July were up 3.2% -- besting experts’ anticipated number of a 1.5% rise.
Today’s sell off is long overdue, and we hope this continues for a few weeks. If you need me, call me or email me here at the office. I’ll be here all day, up until 3:30 when I need to be at the eye doctor. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know your lock is coming over the fax. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, August 31, 2009
Update #1/ Week of August 31, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! Last week we talked about the tug-o’-war going on between the bulls and the bears on Wall Street. Apparently the bulls are finally loosing their grip as the market is finally pulling back today as expected. It’s certainly a sign of the times that we are even discussing the stock market in China, but that is the big news story of the day. The Shanghai Composite last night dropped almost 7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost over 600 points. This created somewhat of a sour mood when traders in New York got to work this morning. The Dow dropped 1% right out of the gate . . . and after several attempts to bounce back, has not been able to so far.
Credit markets, as we’ve been hoping for, have benefitted, albeit slightly, thus far, and we expect that to continue throughout the week. The question is, how aggressive will investors be in giving us the lower note rates at reasonable prices? Today we’re about .125 better in rebate from Friday on our 30 year fixed product. It’s a minimal cost at 4.875%, but it’s quite a leap to get to 4.75% -- we’re at a .710 cost. And then . . . it will cost you almost 2 points to get 4.625! Interesting times….
Well, phones are ringing off the hook already, so as predicted, this is going to be a busy week, hopefully! I know we’re all “jonesin’” to get busier than we can stand it once again. If you need me, call me or email me here at the office! Have a terrific Monday and a very healthy, profitable and prosperous week!
Credit markets, as we’ve been hoping for, have benefitted, albeit slightly, thus far, and we expect that to continue throughout the week. The question is, how aggressive will investors be in giving us the lower note rates at reasonable prices? Today we’re about .125 better in rebate from Friday on our 30 year fixed product. It’s a minimal cost at 4.875%, but it’s quite a leap to get to 4.75% -- we’re at a .710 cost. And then . . . it will cost you almost 2 points to get 4.625! Interesting times….
Well, phones are ringing off the hook already, so as predicted, this is going to be a busy week, hopefully! I know we’re all “jonesin’” to get busier than we can stand it once again. If you need me, call me or email me here at the office! Have a terrific Monday and a very healthy, profitable and prosperous week!
Friday, August 28, 2009
Final Financial Update/ of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! The Dow appears to be ending it’s record-setting pace of 8 straight days of gains. On August the 13th, the Dow closed at 9,398 only to drop about 250 points in the next 2 trading days. From that time until yesterday, the Dow has been in positive territory every day, rising about 450 points in 8 days of trading. Now that’s pretty impressive. Today, the ride seems to be coming to a stop with the Dow down about 70 points as of this writing. The good news in all of this is the credit markets which have actually gained ground also during this time. Our 30 year conforming rate of 4.875 on the 18th of August (the first day of the rally) represented a cost of .215 – today it’s at a cost of .172! I think we all can count ourselves fortunate. What will happen from here if the stock market gives back those 450 points plus some? We may see better pricing, or we may stay the same. That’s all the fun of financial markets, but odds are, we’ll see improved pricing.
Today’s economic news releases had no surprises. Personal income was flat for July, slightly less than the .1% increase for which analysts were hoping. It is quite a bit better than the 1.3% decline registered in June. Personal spending increased .2% in July, in line with expectations. The NASDAQ is not off as much percentage wise as the Dow due to positive forecasts from Dell and Intel. Still, there just doesn’t seem to be enough fuel to rocket the markets higher from here, so a little relief is long over due. Look for improved pricing today if this fall in equity markets continues.
I will be in the office for the morning, but will be outta here at lunch time. If you need me, call me here at the office up until noon, and then on my cell. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend! I think we have a big week ahead of us next week!
Today’s economic news releases had no surprises. Personal income was flat for July, slightly less than the .1% increase for which analysts were hoping. It is quite a bit better than the 1.3% decline registered in June. Personal spending increased .2% in July, in line with expectations. The NASDAQ is not off as much percentage wise as the Dow due to positive forecasts from Dell and Intel. Still, there just doesn’t seem to be enough fuel to rocket the markets higher from here, so a little relief is long over due. Look for improved pricing today if this fall in equity markets continues.
I will be in the office for the morning, but will be outta here at lunch time. If you need me, call me here at the office up until noon, and then on my cell. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend! I think we have a big week ahead of us next week!
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Financial Update #4 of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Yesterday was an interesting day as the bears and the bulls on Wall Street had a tug of war all day and ended basically where they started – flat. The auction of 5 year T-bills went well yesterday which helped credit markets stay even for the day, too. Today we have an auction of 7 year T bills, and await the news of how that turns out. The stock market dropped off the curb this morning right out of the gate, but quickly hit the glass floor and the 3 major indices have bounced back almost to even so far. The battle rages on as the bears on the trading floor want to get the selling going in equities and the bulls who refuse to let things fall.
Traders were hit with a barrage of economic news this morning all at once. The GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2009 dropped 1.0% in line with the preliminary number that we already rec’d earlier, no big surprise there. Personal consumption fell 1.0% in Q2, not as bad as the 1.3% expected. Thursday is our day for jobless claims from the week prior. Last week fewer people filed for initial jobless claims from the week previous – by 10K. Continuing claims dropped 119K to 6.13M which is better than expected, but many analysts admit that much of this is due to the loss of job benefits, not necessarily workers finding employment.
The FDIC reported this morning that the “Problem List” of troubled banks keeps growing. It is now at a 15 year high, but of course, we didn’t have very many failures up until the last couple years. Still, banks continue to deal with bad debts and noncurrent loans and leases, and this of course, is expected to continue. There is some concern that the FDIC will eventually run out of money and not be able to insure the deposits of the bank’s customers. This will have a whole new effect on the recession, if it happens.
Our rates are within a few bps of where we were yesterday. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario questions. Have a terrific Thursday!
Traders were hit with a barrage of economic news this morning all at once. The GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2009 dropped 1.0% in line with the preliminary number that we already rec’d earlier, no big surprise there. Personal consumption fell 1.0% in Q2, not as bad as the 1.3% expected. Thursday is our day for jobless claims from the week prior. Last week fewer people filed for initial jobless claims from the week previous – by 10K. Continuing claims dropped 119K to 6.13M which is better than expected, but many analysts admit that much of this is due to the loss of job benefits, not necessarily workers finding employment.
The FDIC reported this morning that the “Problem List” of troubled banks keeps growing. It is now at a 15 year high, but of course, we didn’t have very many failures up until the last couple years. Still, banks continue to deal with bad debts and noncurrent loans and leases, and this of course, is expected to continue. There is some concern that the FDIC will eventually run out of money and not be able to insure the deposits of the bank’s customers. This will have a whole new effect on the recession, if it happens.
Our rates are within a few bps of where we were yesterday. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario questions. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Financial Update #3 of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Finally we get some follow through from a good day in credit markets yesterday. The auction of 2-year Notes yesterday went well and we saw credit instruments improve throughout the day after starting off in negative territory. Today equity markets are flat . . . I mean, really flat. The Dow is down less than 1 point as of this writing and credit instruments are holding their own. Our pricing is about 20 bps better than yesterday morning. Fine, we’ll take it.
Interesting to see the equity markets struggle as most of the economic news this morning was positive. Durable goods orders for July posted a 4.9% increase, better than the 3.0% increase anticipated. This number is considerably better than the 1.3% decline of June. The Cash for Clunkers program accounted for about ½ the increase, if you take autos out of this number, then you’re at 2.5% increase. The big economic news story of the day is the New Home Sales for July which came in 9.6% higher than in June. Of course we had to give up price in order to gain volume, but it is a good sign for the housing industry. The median price for these homes was down significantly from June’s numbers.
This news would normally have propelled the equity markets into record territory for the year, but that’s just not happening. Maybe there’s just not enough interest in running the market up any higher. That should keep credit prices low for the time being until we get that big sell off everyone’s expecting. There’s an auction of 5-year T bills happening today that might have some affect on credit instruments, although it should be positive as we have seen a healthy appetite for these safer investments of late.
Take a look at our 5/1 ARM’s both on conforming and confumbo products. Our conforming 5/1 ARM (fully amortized) is giving back (.526) rebate at 3.875%!!!! Our confumbo is giving back (.306) at 4.375% and we’re basically par at 4.25%!!!! Amazing!! I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or better yet email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Interesting to see the equity markets struggle as most of the economic news this morning was positive. Durable goods orders for July posted a 4.9% increase, better than the 3.0% increase anticipated. This number is considerably better than the 1.3% decline of June. The Cash for Clunkers program accounted for about ½ the increase, if you take autos out of this number, then you’re at 2.5% increase. The big economic news story of the day is the New Home Sales for July which came in 9.6% higher than in June. Of course we had to give up price in order to gain volume, but it is a good sign for the housing industry. The median price for these homes was down significantly from June’s numbers.
This news would normally have propelled the equity markets into record territory for the year, but that’s just not happening. Maybe there’s just not enough interest in running the market up any higher. That should keep credit prices low for the time being until we get that big sell off everyone’s expecting. There’s an auction of 5-year T bills happening today that might have some affect on credit instruments, although it should be positive as we have seen a healthy appetite for these safer investments of late.
Take a look at our 5/1 ARM’s both on conforming and confumbo products. Our conforming 5/1 ARM (fully amortized) is giving back (.526) rebate at 3.875%!!!! Our confumbo is giving back (.306) at 4.375% and we’re basically par at 4.25%!!!! Amazing!! I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or better yet email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Financial Update #2 of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! We had a pretty flat day yesterday in equity markets – only single digit moves in either direction in all 3 major indices. However, the credit markets had a very good day with the Feds continuing to purchase long term mortgage securities. Too bad we couldn’t get some carry through this morning. Equity markets are off to the races again with positive economic releases, and so far, credit markets are holding on with marginal losses. Today’s pricing on our 30 year conforming rate is back to where we were on Friday morning. We have recouped the .375 we lost in rebate over the weekend.
The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Composite 20-City Index for June came in with a year-over-year drop of 15.4% -- isn’t that great news? How exciting! Well, it is better than the 16.4% anticipated, so I guess in that respect it is good news. And . . . it is better than the 17% number reported for May. The broader Home Price Index came in with a much better improvement . . . 14.9% compared to the 19.8% expected. Obviously, this is giving all kinds of encouragement to stock traders who are touting the end of the recession. However, nobody seems to be addressing that pink 800 pound gorilla in the corner over there with the sign hanging around his neck that reads “Shadow Inventory.” Shadow Inventory is the multitude (nobody really knows how many) of foreclosed houses being held by the banks not yet released to the market. These will have to be sold off before a true recovery can start, so more than likely prices will keep falling, albeit not so quickly year of year (hopefully).
Also adding fuel to this morning’s equity rally is the Consumer Confidence Index report for August which came in with a reading of 54.1 – far above the anticipated number of 47.9 which was pretty much the number from July. The mighty spending force of consumers aren’t bringing their money to the stores, but they are confident about the future. OK, well, at least we feel good about tomorrow, even though we’re not quite ready to put our money where are hearts are.
Uncle Ben gets nominated for another term by our President. He’s done a pretty good job of steering us through the last several years and apparently we don’t want to upset the apple cart. Besides, who would want his job right now anyway?
I’ll be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me or better yet email me here and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Tuesday!
The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Composite 20-City Index for June came in with a year-over-year drop of 15.4% -- isn’t that great news? How exciting! Well, it is better than the 16.4% anticipated, so I guess in that respect it is good news. And . . . it is better than the 17% number reported for May. The broader Home Price Index came in with a much better improvement . . . 14.9% compared to the 19.8% expected. Obviously, this is giving all kinds of encouragement to stock traders who are touting the end of the recession. However, nobody seems to be addressing that pink 800 pound gorilla in the corner over there with the sign hanging around his neck that reads “Shadow Inventory.” Shadow Inventory is the multitude (nobody really knows how many) of foreclosed houses being held by the banks not yet released to the market. These will have to be sold off before a true recovery can start, so more than likely prices will keep falling, albeit not so quickly year of year (hopefully).
Also adding fuel to this morning’s equity rally is the Consumer Confidence Index report for August which came in with a reading of 54.1 – far above the anticipated number of 47.9 which was pretty much the number from July. The mighty spending force of consumers aren’t bringing their money to the stores, but they are confident about the future. OK, well, at least we feel good about tomorrow, even though we’re not quite ready to put our money where are hearts are.
Uncle Ben gets nominated for another term by our President. He’s done a pretty good job of steering us through the last several years and apparently we don’t want to upset the apple cart. Besides, who would want his job right now anyway?
I’ll be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me or better yet email me here and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, August 24, 2009
Financial Update #1/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Monday! The stock market, being the machine that it is, is continued to rally today on a follow through from Friday’s big run. Fortunately, we have not be killed on rates . . . this morning’s rate sheet represents about a .375 loss in rebate from Friday morning’s initial note offerings. Not bad really, considering the Dow has gained over 200 points since the opening of trade just one business day ago. Credit markets are attempting to make some progress this morning, too, but investors, as we know, like to stay clear of market gyrations, so they’re playing it safe today as usual.
Base pricing for a 30 year fixed rate loan today falls between 4.75% and 4.875%, NOT BAD AT ALL…
There are no earnings reports today and no economic news releases, so the market is free to move on what ever bias it feels appropriate. So far, the rally right out of the gate for equities has stalled and credit markets are slowly making some gains. I’ll be in the office all day today and am already getting pounded with emails and phone calls, so there is definitely plenty of activity going on out there. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday, and here’s to a very profitable week!
Base pricing for a 30 year fixed rate loan today falls between 4.75% and 4.875%, NOT BAD AT ALL…
There are no earnings reports today and no economic news releases, so the market is free to move on what ever bias it feels appropriate. So far, the rally right out of the gate for equities has stalled and credit markets are slowly making some gains. I’ll be in the office all day today and am already getting pounded with emails and phone calls, so there is definitely plenty of activity going on out there. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday, and here’s to a very profitable week!
Friday, August 21, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Well, it’s a happy Friday if you’re hoping your 401(k) is going to climb a little bit higher. Yesterday we pointed out how the stock market is exactly even for the week, and going into the final trading day, stocks break higher and credit instruments are selling off.
Stocks are hoppin’ today on good news from July existing home sales report. Annualized sales hit 5.2 million in July, higher than the 5.0 million anticipated. This number is up from 4.9 million in June, giving us a 7.2% increase month over month – the biggest jump in 10 years. Admittedly, these sales are at the shallow end of the real estate pool with investors and first time home buyers scooping up properties at foreclosed prices. The stimulus for the FTHB is the tax credit offered by the Gov’t which runs out this Fall, so this pace is going to be hard to sustain. Also, these sales at incredibly low prices (many sales are being reported around the country of less than $50K) are bound to have a negative affect on average home prices. This is not necessarily a good thing for our industry, but we do need to get rid of the inventory.
The unemployment numbers for individual states came out this morning and California leads the nation in volume. CA lost over 35,000 jobs last month, which is the most of any state in total job losses. The unemployment rate jumped from 11.2 to 11.9 -- #4 in the nation in that category. Not really one of those awards we want to win.
Prices on the rate sheet this morning are about the same as they were yesterday. We’re within 2 bps in most cases on any given note rate on the 30 year conforming product. We know investors were leaving a little room in case something like this happened, so thankfully, with such a big move in credit markets today, we are seeing little move in rates. Take a peek at our 5/1 ARM on our conforming product . . . 3.875% is giving back a rebate of (.338) . . . pretty good.
I’ll be in the office all day today. If you need me, call me here or email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Stocks are hoppin’ today on good news from July existing home sales report. Annualized sales hit 5.2 million in July, higher than the 5.0 million anticipated. This number is up from 4.9 million in June, giving us a 7.2% increase month over month – the biggest jump in 10 years. Admittedly, these sales are at the shallow end of the real estate pool with investors and first time home buyers scooping up properties at foreclosed prices. The stimulus for the FTHB is the tax credit offered by the Gov’t which runs out this Fall, so this pace is going to be hard to sustain. Also, these sales at incredibly low prices (many sales are being reported around the country of less than $50K) are bound to have a negative affect on average home prices. This is not necessarily a good thing for our industry, but we do need to get rid of the inventory.
The unemployment numbers for individual states came out this morning and California leads the nation in volume. CA lost over 35,000 jobs last month, which is the most of any state in total job losses. The unemployment rate jumped from 11.2 to 11.9 -- #4 in the nation in that category. Not really one of those awards we want to win.
Prices on the rate sheet this morning are about the same as they were yesterday. We’re within 2 bps in most cases on any given note rate on the 30 year conforming product. We know investors were leaving a little room in case something like this happened, so thankfully, with such a big move in credit markets today, we are seeing little move in rates. Take a peek at our 5/1 ARM on our conforming product . . . 3.875% is giving back a rebate of (.338) . . . pretty good.
I’ll be in the office all day today. If you need me, call me here or email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Financial Update #3/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Yesterday the stock market ended the day having made up about ½ of its losses from Monday, and today, it appears that they will make up the other ½. The Dow Jones IA has just jumped about 100 points in the last hour or so. We were down 25 points, and now are up about 75. This is having a damper effect on the credit instruments which started the day with some healthy gains.
Our pricing, as you can see, is basically flat from yesterday morning. Investors have a “deer in the headlights” response to all the volatility in the market place this week, due to the fact that the volatility has been within a relatively tight trading range. There are no economic reports today and no Fed or Treasury speakers due to make any announcements or speeches. HP and Deere reported better than expected earnings this morning, possibly this is the reason for the upbeat tone on Wall Street.
The Wall Street Journal article recently published regarding HVCC has garnered a lot of attention in the last couple days. They say that the new HVCC code is squeezing appraisers by making them drive longer distances to accomplish their work, handle more assignments, and work faster to deliver the appraisals as quickly as possible. All this to be done with lower fees – anywhere from $175 to $200 per appraisal. Also, they are being called upon to appraise homes in towns and neighborhoods with which they are not familiar. Have we seen any of this taking place? Of course . . . we all have.
Who is benefitting from this new code? The consumer? Well, according to a spokesman from Andrew Cuomo’s office, the code is working well and helping to protect appraisers from the pressure of having to deliver inflated values. According to realtors and brokers, it’s a train wreck and consumers are getting punished the most. The AMC’s are making money hand over fist and are not really providing that much of a benefit, in my opinion, due to the fact that a large percentage of our appraisals received are needing field reviews anyway. What a mess. All we can hope for is that the legislation for a moratorium of the HVCC gets passed soon.
Our pricing, as you can see, is basically flat from yesterday morning. Investors have a “deer in the headlights” response to all the volatility in the market place this week, due to the fact that the volatility has been within a relatively tight trading range. There are no economic reports today and no Fed or Treasury speakers due to make any announcements or speeches. HP and Deere reported better than expected earnings this morning, possibly this is the reason for the upbeat tone on Wall Street.
The Wall Street Journal article recently published regarding HVCC has garnered a lot of attention in the last couple days. They say that the new HVCC code is squeezing appraisers by making them drive longer distances to accomplish their work, handle more assignments, and work faster to deliver the appraisals as quickly as possible. All this to be done with lower fees – anywhere from $175 to $200 per appraisal. Also, they are being called upon to appraise homes in towns and neighborhoods with which they are not familiar. Have we seen any of this taking place? Of course . . . we all have.
Who is benefitting from this new code? The consumer? Well, according to a spokesman from Andrew Cuomo’s office, the code is working well and helping to protect appraisers from the pressure of having to deliver inflated values. According to realtors and brokers, it’s a train wreck and consumers are getting punished the most. The AMC’s are making money hand over fist and are not really providing that much of a benefit, in my opinion, due to the fact that a large percentage of our appraisals received are needing field reviews anyway. What a mess. All we can hope for is that the legislation for a moratorium of the HVCC gets passed soon.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Financial Update #2/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Many of you may be a little miffed at the fact that we had such a drastic move in credit markets yesterday with no improvement in rates yesterday afternoon. Today the stock market is recapturing about ½ of its losses from yesterday and credit markets are basically flat. Pricing is still about the same from yesterday morning – within a few bps.
You must keep in mind that credit markets are much more conservative than equity markets. The credit market traders and secondary marketing managers can get hurt very badly with a big move in the wrong direction in credit markets. Thus, traders on the credit instruments keep a safe distance from the campfire so as not to get burned. Today we see this playing out in rates. Fortunately, we’re basically flat from yesterday morning and didn’t lose the ground we gained from Friday a.m. to yesterday morning’s pricing.
There were a couple of economic reports this morning of note. First of all, the PPI for July came in with a drop of .9%, worse than the .3% anticipated, and way down from the 1.8% increase in June. Many experts talked about the June number being an aberration, and it proves to be the case now. There is basically no inflation in the market at this time. Take food and energy out of the mix, and your number is a paltry .1% decrease, not much of a market mover. Housing starts and building permits dropped for the month of July compared to the month previous. That is to be expected with home values dropping like they have. Home Depot helped put a spark in the equity markets this morning with a positive earnings report. This morning’s rally seems to be more of a reaction from yesterday’s loss, but further shows the resiliency of the equity market and how we just can’t seem to get some downward movement over several trading days.
Thursday, the Treasury Dept will announce their auctions for T-bills which will happen next week; these always compete for money in MBS’s…
I will be in the office all day today. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me first and let me know it’s coming. Otherwise, if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question, please email me or call me here. Have a terrific Tuesday!
You must keep in mind that credit markets are much more conservative than equity markets. The credit market traders and secondary marketing managers can get hurt very badly with a big move in the wrong direction in credit markets. Thus, traders on the credit instruments keep a safe distance from the campfire so as not to get burned. Today we see this playing out in rates. Fortunately, we’re basically flat from yesterday morning and didn’t lose the ground we gained from Friday a.m. to yesterday morning’s pricing.
There were a couple of economic reports this morning of note. First of all, the PPI for July came in with a drop of .9%, worse than the .3% anticipated, and way down from the 1.8% increase in June. Many experts talked about the June number being an aberration, and it proves to be the case now. There is basically no inflation in the market at this time. Take food and energy out of the mix, and your number is a paltry .1% decrease, not much of a market mover. Housing starts and building permits dropped for the month of July compared to the month previous. That is to be expected with home values dropping like they have. Home Depot helped put a spark in the equity markets this morning with a positive earnings report. This morning’s rally seems to be more of a reaction from yesterday’s loss, but further shows the resiliency of the equity market and how we just can’t seem to get some downward movement over several trading days.
Thursday, the Treasury Dept will announce their auctions for T-bills which will happen next week; these always compete for money in MBS’s…
I will be in the office all day today. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me first and let me know it’s coming. Otherwise, if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question, please email me or call me here. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Financial Market Update #1/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! If you have been looking for lower rates, this is a happy morning for you . . . if you are a stock trader, probably not so much. This morning’s sell off in equity markets kicked off in Tokyo late last night (our time) with an announcement that the Japanese economy grew at a slower than expected pace in the 2nd quarter. The Tokyo stock market (Nikkei 225) sold off over 300 points on the news. The ill mood seemed to carry over to Europe and then our shores in pre-market trading.
The news for our economy that was reported this morning wasn’t too bad, actually. The New York Manufacturing Index reported it’s first positive number since April of 2008. A number which indicates expansion. The Feds announced this morning that they will extend their TALF program (Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility) to add liquidity into the lending arena going forward.
This morning is a win-win for mortgage rates. The Fed news is encouraging to credit instruments, and the sell off in the stock market means money is fleeing to the safe havens of the Treasuries and MBS’s. Rates this morning are about .500 better in rebate than Friday morning’s rate sheet. The sell off this morning is broad-based which could mean that selling will continue if traders think the market is moving downward, and this could have a continued positive affect for mortgage rates.
Investors seem slow to chase rates – maybe because they were burned early this year on dismal pull-through percentages. Banks want to be the last ones with whom you lock, not the first. The last bank gets the deal, so they’re willing to wait and let rates fall further, if that’s what they think is going to happen, and pick up the lock at the end of the process. In regards to pull through, it’s no wonder big banks were in support of the latest rounds of regulations. Much of what we have seen implemented in the last 6 months facilitates an effort to keep brokers with the investor with whom they start. It’s very difficult now to jump around from lender to lender once you’ve started the file process, specifically ordering the appraisal and having the lender issue a TIL. Maybe that’s a good thing, but doesn’t seem to be much a benefit to the borrower who might have a feeling of being trapped.
Have a terrific Monday and very profitable week!
The news for our economy that was reported this morning wasn’t too bad, actually. The New York Manufacturing Index reported it’s first positive number since April of 2008. A number which indicates expansion. The Feds announced this morning that they will extend their TALF program (Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility) to add liquidity into the lending arena going forward.
This morning is a win-win for mortgage rates. The Fed news is encouraging to credit instruments, and the sell off in the stock market means money is fleeing to the safe havens of the Treasuries and MBS’s. Rates this morning are about .500 better in rebate than Friday morning’s rate sheet. The sell off this morning is broad-based which could mean that selling will continue if traders think the market is moving downward, and this could have a continued positive affect for mortgage rates.
Investors seem slow to chase rates – maybe because they were burned early this year on dismal pull-through percentages. Banks want to be the last ones with whom you lock, not the first. The last bank gets the deal, so they’re willing to wait and let rates fall further, if that’s what they think is going to happen, and pick up the lock at the end of the process. In regards to pull through, it’s no wonder big banks were in support of the latest rounds of regulations. Much of what we have seen implemented in the last 6 months facilitates an effort to keep brokers with the investor with whom they start. It’s very difficult now to jump around from lender to lender once you’ve started the file process, specifically ordering the appraisal and having the lender issue a TIL. Maybe that’s a good thing, but doesn’t seem to be much a benefit to the borrower who might have a feeling of being trapped.
Have a terrific Monday and very profitable week!
Friday, August 14, 2009
Final FInancial Update/ Week of August 10, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! This week has been a very good week for rates with an especially good move happening today. The University of Michigan August consumer sentiment survey came in this morning at 63.2 – far below the 69 anticipated. Apparently consumers aren’t as optimistic about the near future as stock traders are. We’ve been waiting for some realism to hit the markets with an incredibly resilient equity market of late. Today we’re getting it, as this report just knocked the stuffings out of several weeks of progressive gains in the stock market. If we close where we are right now, the Dow will have lost about 1.4% for the week.
All of this is having a positive affect on rates. Yesterday we improved throughout the day, and today we get some more follow through. Rates don’t reflect, in my opinion, the large moves in credit markets that we have seen in the last couple days. Maybe lock desks are looking forward to the weekend. We hope to get some follow through next week, of course.
***** Notice a big addition to our rate sheets this morning. We’ve added the 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 ARM’s to our conforming rate sheet, and the 5/1 ARM to our “confumbo” rate sheet (page 2). Hopefully this will meet the need of a certain sector of borrowers who might want to take advantage of these extremely low rates. The 5/1 ARM on page 1 is correct, we just need to move the grid down. We still have a few kinks to work out of the system. I’ll follow up in a few mins with the lower note rates.
If you would like to lock a loan this morning, catch us early …. I’ll be in the office all day if you need me. I was tied up yesterday working on these rate sheets. Call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
All of this is having a positive affect on rates. Yesterday we improved throughout the day, and today we get some more follow through. Rates don’t reflect, in my opinion, the large moves in credit markets that we have seen in the last couple days. Maybe lock desks are looking forward to the weekend. We hope to get some follow through next week, of course.
***** Notice a big addition to our rate sheets this morning. We’ve added the 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 ARM’s to our conforming rate sheet, and the 5/1 ARM to our “confumbo” rate sheet (page 2). Hopefully this will meet the need of a certain sector of borrowers who might want to take advantage of these extremely low rates. The 5/1 ARM on page 1 is correct, we just need to move the grid down. We still have a few kinks to work out of the system. I’ll follow up in a few mins with the lower note rates.
If you would like to lock a loan this morning, catch us early …. I’ll be in the office all day if you need me. I was tied up yesterday working on these rate sheets. Call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
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