Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! Last week we talked about the tug-o’-war going on between the bulls and the bears on Wall Street. Apparently the bulls are finally loosing their grip as the market is finally pulling back today as expected. It’s certainly a sign of the times that we are even discussing the stock market in China, but that is the big news story of the day. The Shanghai Composite last night dropped almost 7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost over 600 points. This created somewhat of a sour mood when traders in New York got to work this morning. The Dow dropped 1% right out of the gate . . . and after several attempts to bounce back, has not been able to so far.
Credit markets, as we’ve been hoping for, have benefitted, albeit slightly, thus far, and we expect that to continue throughout the week. The question is, how aggressive will investors be in giving us the lower note rates at reasonable prices? Today we’re about .125 better in rebate from Friday on our 30 year fixed product. It’s a minimal cost at 4.875%, but it’s quite a leap to get to 4.75% -- we’re at a .710 cost. And then . . . it will cost you almost 2 points to get 4.625! Interesting times….
Well, phones are ringing off the hook already, so as predicted, this is going to be a busy week, hopefully! I know we’re all “jonesin’” to get busier than we can stand it once again. If you need me, call me or email me here at the office! Have a terrific Monday and a very healthy, profitable and prosperous week!
Monday, August 31, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
Final Financial Update/ of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! The Dow appears to be ending it’s record-setting pace of 8 straight days of gains. On August the 13th, the Dow closed at 9,398 only to drop about 250 points in the next 2 trading days. From that time until yesterday, the Dow has been in positive territory every day, rising about 450 points in 8 days of trading. Now that’s pretty impressive. Today, the ride seems to be coming to a stop with the Dow down about 70 points as of this writing. The good news in all of this is the credit markets which have actually gained ground also during this time. Our 30 year conforming rate of 4.875 on the 18th of August (the first day of the rally) represented a cost of .215 – today it’s at a cost of .172! I think we all can count ourselves fortunate. What will happen from here if the stock market gives back those 450 points plus some? We may see better pricing, or we may stay the same. That’s all the fun of financial markets, but odds are, we’ll see improved pricing.
Today’s economic news releases had no surprises. Personal income was flat for July, slightly less than the .1% increase for which analysts were hoping. It is quite a bit better than the 1.3% decline registered in June. Personal spending increased .2% in July, in line with expectations. The NASDAQ is not off as much percentage wise as the Dow due to positive forecasts from Dell and Intel. Still, there just doesn’t seem to be enough fuel to rocket the markets higher from here, so a little relief is long over due. Look for improved pricing today if this fall in equity markets continues.
I will be in the office for the morning, but will be outta here at lunch time. If you need me, call me here at the office up until noon, and then on my cell. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend! I think we have a big week ahead of us next week!
Today’s economic news releases had no surprises. Personal income was flat for July, slightly less than the .1% increase for which analysts were hoping. It is quite a bit better than the 1.3% decline registered in June. Personal spending increased .2% in July, in line with expectations. The NASDAQ is not off as much percentage wise as the Dow due to positive forecasts from Dell and Intel. Still, there just doesn’t seem to be enough fuel to rocket the markets higher from here, so a little relief is long over due. Look for improved pricing today if this fall in equity markets continues.
I will be in the office for the morning, but will be outta here at lunch time. If you need me, call me here at the office up until noon, and then on my cell. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend! I think we have a big week ahead of us next week!
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Financial Update #4 of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Yesterday was an interesting day as the bears and the bulls on Wall Street had a tug of war all day and ended basically where they started – flat. The auction of 5 year T-bills went well yesterday which helped credit markets stay even for the day, too. Today we have an auction of 7 year T bills, and await the news of how that turns out. The stock market dropped off the curb this morning right out of the gate, but quickly hit the glass floor and the 3 major indices have bounced back almost to even so far. The battle rages on as the bears on the trading floor want to get the selling going in equities and the bulls who refuse to let things fall.
Traders were hit with a barrage of economic news this morning all at once. The GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2009 dropped 1.0% in line with the preliminary number that we already rec’d earlier, no big surprise there. Personal consumption fell 1.0% in Q2, not as bad as the 1.3% expected. Thursday is our day for jobless claims from the week prior. Last week fewer people filed for initial jobless claims from the week previous – by 10K. Continuing claims dropped 119K to 6.13M which is better than expected, but many analysts admit that much of this is due to the loss of job benefits, not necessarily workers finding employment.
The FDIC reported this morning that the “Problem List” of troubled banks keeps growing. It is now at a 15 year high, but of course, we didn’t have very many failures up until the last couple years. Still, banks continue to deal with bad debts and noncurrent loans and leases, and this of course, is expected to continue. There is some concern that the FDIC will eventually run out of money and not be able to insure the deposits of the bank’s customers. This will have a whole new effect on the recession, if it happens.
Our rates are within a few bps of where we were yesterday. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario questions. Have a terrific Thursday!
Traders were hit with a barrage of economic news this morning all at once. The GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2009 dropped 1.0% in line with the preliminary number that we already rec’d earlier, no big surprise there. Personal consumption fell 1.0% in Q2, not as bad as the 1.3% expected. Thursday is our day for jobless claims from the week prior. Last week fewer people filed for initial jobless claims from the week previous – by 10K. Continuing claims dropped 119K to 6.13M which is better than expected, but many analysts admit that much of this is due to the loss of job benefits, not necessarily workers finding employment.
The FDIC reported this morning that the “Problem List” of troubled banks keeps growing. It is now at a 15 year high, but of course, we didn’t have very many failures up until the last couple years. Still, banks continue to deal with bad debts and noncurrent loans and leases, and this of course, is expected to continue. There is some concern that the FDIC will eventually run out of money and not be able to insure the deposits of the bank’s customers. This will have a whole new effect on the recession, if it happens.
Our rates are within a few bps of where we were yesterday. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario questions. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Financial Update #3 of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Finally we get some follow through from a good day in credit markets yesterday. The auction of 2-year Notes yesterday went well and we saw credit instruments improve throughout the day after starting off in negative territory. Today equity markets are flat . . . I mean, really flat. The Dow is down less than 1 point as of this writing and credit instruments are holding their own. Our pricing is about 20 bps better than yesterday morning. Fine, we’ll take it.
Interesting to see the equity markets struggle as most of the economic news this morning was positive. Durable goods orders for July posted a 4.9% increase, better than the 3.0% increase anticipated. This number is considerably better than the 1.3% decline of June. The Cash for Clunkers program accounted for about ½ the increase, if you take autos out of this number, then you’re at 2.5% increase. The big economic news story of the day is the New Home Sales for July which came in 9.6% higher than in June. Of course we had to give up price in order to gain volume, but it is a good sign for the housing industry. The median price for these homes was down significantly from June’s numbers.
This news would normally have propelled the equity markets into record territory for the year, but that’s just not happening. Maybe there’s just not enough interest in running the market up any higher. That should keep credit prices low for the time being until we get that big sell off everyone’s expecting. There’s an auction of 5-year T bills happening today that might have some affect on credit instruments, although it should be positive as we have seen a healthy appetite for these safer investments of late.
Take a look at our 5/1 ARM’s both on conforming and confumbo products. Our conforming 5/1 ARM (fully amortized) is giving back (.526) rebate at 3.875%!!!! Our confumbo is giving back (.306) at 4.375% and we’re basically par at 4.25%!!!! Amazing!! I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or better yet email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Interesting to see the equity markets struggle as most of the economic news this morning was positive. Durable goods orders for July posted a 4.9% increase, better than the 3.0% increase anticipated. This number is considerably better than the 1.3% decline of June. The Cash for Clunkers program accounted for about ½ the increase, if you take autos out of this number, then you’re at 2.5% increase. The big economic news story of the day is the New Home Sales for July which came in 9.6% higher than in June. Of course we had to give up price in order to gain volume, but it is a good sign for the housing industry. The median price for these homes was down significantly from June’s numbers.
This news would normally have propelled the equity markets into record territory for the year, but that’s just not happening. Maybe there’s just not enough interest in running the market up any higher. That should keep credit prices low for the time being until we get that big sell off everyone’s expecting. There’s an auction of 5-year T bills happening today that might have some affect on credit instruments, although it should be positive as we have seen a healthy appetite for these safer investments of late.
Take a look at our 5/1 ARM’s both on conforming and confumbo products. Our conforming 5/1 ARM (fully amortized) is giving back (.526) rebate at 3.875%!!!! Our confumbo is giving back (.306) at 4.375% and we’re basically par at 4.25%!!!! Amazing!! I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or better yet email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Financial Update #2 of 5/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! We had a pretty flat day yesterday in equity markets – only single digit moves in either direction in all 3 major indices. However, the credit markets had a very good day with the Feds continuing to purchase long term mortgage securities. Too bad we couldn’t get some carry through this morning. Equity markets are off to the races again with positive economic releases, and so far, credit markets are holding on with marginal losses. Today’s pricing on our 30 year conforming rate is back to where we were on Friday morning. We have recouped the .375 we lost in rebate over the weekend.
The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Composite 20-City Index for June came in with a year-over-year drop of 15.4% -- isn’t that great news? How exciting! Well, it is better than the 16.4% anticipated, so I guess in that respect it is good news. And . . . it is better than the 17% number reported for May. The broader Home Price Index came in with a much better improvement . . . 14.9% compared to the 19.8% expected. Obviously, this is giving all kinds of encouragement to stock traders who are touting the end of the recession. However, nobody seems to be addressing that pink 800 pound gorilla in the corner over there with the sign hanging around his neck that reads “Shadow Inventory.” Shadow Inventory is the multitude (nobody really knows how many) of foreclosed houses being held by the banks not yet released to the market. These will have to be sold off before a true recovery can start, so more than likely prices will keep falling, albeit not so quickly year of year (hopefully).
Also adding fuel to this morning’s equity rally is the Consumer Confidence Index report for August which came in with a reading of 54.1 – far above the anticipated number of 47.9 which was pretty much the number from July. The mighty spending force of consumers aren’t bringing their money to the stores, but they are confident about the future. OK, well, at least we feel good about tomorrow, even though we’re not quite ready to put our money where are hearts are.
Uncle Ben gets nominated for another term by our President. He’s done a pretty good job of steering us through the last several years and apparently we don’t want to upset the apple cart. Besides, who would want his job right now anyway?
I’ll be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me or better yet email me here and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Tuesday!
The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Composite 20-City Index for June came in with a year-over-year drop of 15.4% -- isn’t that great news? How exciting! Well, it is better than the 16.4% anticipated, so I guess in that respect it is good news. And . . . it is better than the 17% number reported for May. The broader Home Price Index came in with a much better improvement . . . 14.9% compared to the 19.8% expected. Obviously, this is giving all kinds of encouragement to stock traders who are touting the end of the recession. However, nobody seems to be addressing that pink 800 pound gorilla in the corner over there with the sign hanging around his neck that reads “Shadow Inventory.” Shadow Inventory is the multitude (nobody really knows how many) of foreclosed houses being held by the banks not yet released to the market. These will have to be sold off before a true recovery can start, so more than likely prices will keep falling, albeit not so quickly year of year (hopefully).
Also adding fuel to this morning’s equity rally is the Consumer Confidence Index report for August which came in with a reading of 54.1 – far above the anticipated number of 47.9 which was pretty much the number from July. The mighty spending force of consumers aren’t bringing their money to the stores, but they are confident about the future. OK, well, at least we feel good about tomorrow, even though we’re not quite ready to put our money where are hearts are.
Uncle Ben gets nominated for another term by our President. He’s done a pretty good job of steering us through the last several years and apparently we don’t want to upset the apple cart. Besides, who would want his job right now anyway?
I’ll be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me or better yet email me here and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, August 24, 2009
Financial Update #1/ Week of August 24, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Monday! The stock market, being the machine that it is, is continued to rally today on a follow through from Friday’s big run. Fortunately, we have not be killed on rates . . . this morning’s rate sheet represents about a .375 loss in rebate from Friday morning’s initial note offerings. Not bad really, considering the Dow has gained over 200 points since the opening of trade just one business day ago. Credit markets are attempting to make some progress this morning, too, but investors, as we know, like to stay clear of market gyrations, so they’re playing it safe today as usual.
Base pricing for a 30 year fixed rate loan today falls between 4.75% and 4.875%, NOT BAD AT ALL…
There are no earnings reports today and no economic news releases, so the market is free to move on what ever bias it feels appropriate. So far, the rally right out of the gate for equities has stalled and credit markets are slowly making some gains. I’ll be in the office all day today and am already getting pounded with emails and phone calls, so there is definitely plenty of activity going on out there. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday, and here’s to a very profitable week!
Base pricing for a 30 year fixed rate loan today falls between 4.75% and 4.875%, NOT BAD AT ALL…
There are no earnings reports today and no economic news releases, so the market is free to move on what ever bias it feels appropriate. So far, the rally right out of the gate for equities has stalled and credit markets are slowly making some gains. I’ll be in the office all day today and am already getting pounded with emails and phone calls, so there is definitely plenty of activity going on out there. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday, and here’s to a very profitable week!
Friday, August 21, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Well, it’s a happy Friday if you’re hoping your 401(k) is going to climb a little bit higher. Yesterday we pointed out how the stock market is exactly even for the week, and going into the final trading day, stocks break higher and credit instruments are selling off.
Stocks are hoppin’ today on good news from July existing home sales report. Annualized sales hit 5.2 million in July, higher than the 5.0 million anticipated. This number is up from 4.9 million in June, giving us a 7.2% increase month over month – the biggest jump in 10 years. Admittedly, these sales are at the shallow end of the real estate pool with investors and first time home buyers scooping up properties at foreclosed prices. The stimulus for the FTHB is the tax credit offered by the Gov’t which runs out this Fall, so this pace is going to be hard to sustain. Also, these sales at incredibly low prices (many sales are being reported around the country of less than $50K) are bound to have a negative affect on average home prices. This is not necessarily a good thing for our industry, but we do need to get rid of the inventory.
The unemployment numbers for individual states came out this morning and California leads the nation in volume. CA lost over 35,000 jobs last month, which is the most of any state in total job losses. The unemployment rate jumped from 11.2 to 11.9 -- #4 in the nation in that category. Not really one of those awards we want to win.
Prices on the rate sheet this morning are about the same as they were yesterday. We’re within 2 bps in most cases on any given note rate on the 30 year conforming product. We know investors were leaving a little room in case something like this happened, so thankfully, with such a big move in credit markets today, we are seeing little move in rates. Take a peek at our 5/1 ARM on our conforming product . . . 3.875% is giving back a rebate of (.338) . . . pretty good.
I’ll be in the office all day today. If you need me, call me here or email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Stocks are hoppin’ today on good news from July existing home sales report. Annualized sales hit 5.2 million in July, higher than the 5.0 million anticipated. This number is up from 4.9 million in June, giving us a 7.2% increase month over month – the biggest jump in 10 years. Admittedly, these sales are at the shallow end of the real estate pool with investors and first time home buyers scooping up properties at foreclosed prices. The stimulus for the FTHB is the tax credit offered by the Gov’t which runs out this Fall, so this pace is going to be hard to sustain. Also, these sales at incredibly low prices (many sales are being reported around the country of less than $50K) are bound to have a negative affect on average home prices. This is not necessarily a good thing for our industry, but we do need to get rid of the inventory.
The unemployment numbers for individual states came out this morning and California leads the nation in volume. CA lost over 35,000 jobs last month, which is the most of any state in total job losses. The unemployment rate jumped from 11.2 to 11.9 -- #4 in the nation in that category. Not really one of those awards we want to win.
Prices on the rate sheet this morning are about the same as they were yesterday. We’re within 2 bps in most cases on any given note rate on the 30 year conforming product. We know investors were leaving a little room in case something like this happened, so thankfully, with such a big move in credit markets today, we are seeing little move in rates. Take a peek at our 5/1 ARM on our conforming product . . . 3.875% is giving back a rebate of (.338) . . . pretty good.
I’ll be in the office all day today. If you need me, call me here or email me and I’ll do my best to help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Financial Update #3/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Yesterday the stock market ended the day having made up about ½ of its losses from Monday, and today, it appears that they will make up the other ½. The Dow Jones IA has just jumped about 100 points in the last hour or so. We were down 25 points, and now are up about 75. This is having a damper effect on the credit instruments which started the day with some healthy gains.
Our pricing, as you can see, is basically flat from yesterday morning. Investors have a “deer in the headlights” response to all the volatility in the market place this week, due to the fact that the volatility has been within a relatively tight trading range. There are no economic reports today and no Fed or Treasury speakers due to make any announcements or speeches. HP and Deere reported better than expected earnings this morning, possibly this is the reason for the upbeat tone on Wall Street.
The Wall Street Journal article recently published regarding HVCC has garnered a lot of attention in the last couple days. They say that the new HVCC code is squeezing appraisers by making them drive longer distances to accomplish their work, handle more assignments, and work faster to deliver the appraisals as quickly as possible. All this to be done with lower fees – anywhere from $175 to $200 per appraisal. Also, they are being called upon to appraise homes in towns and neighborhoods with which they are not familiar. Have we seen any of this taking place? Of course . . . we all have.
Who is benefitting from this new code? The consumer? Well, according to a spokesman from Andrew Cuomo’s office, the code is working well and helping to protect appraisers from the pressure of having to deliver inflated values. According to realtors and brokers, it’s a train wreck and consumers are getting punished the most. The AMC’s are making money hand over fist and are not really providing that much of a benefit, in my opinion, due to the fact that a large percentage of our appraisals received are needing field reviews anyway. What a mess. All we can hope for is that the legislation for a moratorium of the HVCC gets passed soon.
Our pricing, as you can see, is basically flat from yesterday morning. Investors have a “deer in the headlights” response to all the volatility in the market place this week, due to the fact that the volatility has been within a relatively tight trading range. There are no economic reports today and no Fed or Treasury speakers due to make any announcements or speeches. HP and Deere reported better than expected earnings this morning, possibly this is the reason for the upbeat tone on Wall Street.
The Wall Street Journal article recently published regarding HVCC has garnered a lot of attention in the last couple days. They say that the new HVCC code is squeezing appraisers by making them drive longer distances to accomplish their work, handle more assignments, and work faster to deliver the appraisals as quickly as possible. All this to be done with lower fees – anywhere from $175 to $200 per appraisal. Also, they are being called upon to appraise homes in towns and neighborhoods with which they are not familiar. Have we seen any of this taking place? Of course . . . we all have.
Who is benefitting from this new code? The consumer? Well, according to a spokesman from Andrew Cuomo’s office, the code is working well and helping to protect appraisers from the pressure of having to deliver inflated values. According to realtors and brokers, it’s a train wreck and consumers are getting punished the most. The AMC’s are making money hand over fist and are not really providing that much of a benefit, in my opinion, due to the fact that a large percentage of our appraisals received are needing field reviews anyway. What a mess. All we can hope for is that the legislation for a moratorium of the HVCC gets passed soon.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Financial Update #2/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Many of you may be a little miffed at the fact that we had such a drastic move in credit markets yesterday with no improvement in rates yesterday afternoon. Today the stock market is recapturing about ½ of its losses from yesterday and credit markets are basically flat. Pricing is still about the same from yesterday morning – within a few bps.
You must keep in mind that credit markets are much more conservative than equity markets. The credit market traders and secondary marketing managers can get hurt very badly with a big move in the wrong direction in credit markets. Thus, traders on the credit instruments keep a safe distance from the campfire so as not to get burned. Today we see this playing out in rates. Fortunately, we’re basically flat from yesterday morning and didn’t lose the ground we gained from Friday a.m. to yesterday morning’s pricing.
There were a couple of economic reports this morning of note. First of all, the PPI for July came in with a drop of .9%, worse than the .3% anticipated, and way down from the 1.8% increase in June. Many experts talked about the June number being an aberration, and it proves to be the case now. There is basically no inflation in the market at this time. Take food and energy out of the mix, and your number is a paltry .1% decrease, not much of a market mover. Housing starts and building permits dropped for the month of July compared to the month previous. That is to be expected with home values dropping like they have. Home Depot helped put a spark in the equity markets this morning with a positive earnings report. This morning’s rally seems to be more of a reaction from yesterday’s loss, but further shows the resiliency of the equity market and how we just can’t seem to get some downward movement over several trading days.
Thursday, the Treasury Dept will announce their auctions for T-bills which will happen next week; these always compete for money in MBS’s…
I will be in the office all day today. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me first and let me know it’s coming. Otherwise, if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question, please email me or call me here. Have a terrific Tuesday!
You must keep in mind that credit markets are much more conservative than equity markets. The credit market traders and secondary marketing managers can get hurt very badly with a big move in the wrong direction in credit markets. Thus, traders on the credit instruments keep a safe distance from the campfire so as not to get burned. Today we see this playing out in rates. Fortunately, we’re basically flat from yesterday morning and didn’t lose the ground we gained from Friday a.m. to yesterday morning’s pricing.
There were a couple of economic reports this morning of note. First of all, the PPI for July came in with a drop of .9%, worse than the .3% anticipated, and way down from the 1.8% increase in June. Many experts talked about the June number being an aberration, and it proves to be the case now. There is basically no inflation in the market at this time. Take food and energy out of the mix, and your number is a paltry .1% decrease, not much of a market mover. Housing starts and building permits dropped for the month of July compared to the month previous. That is to be expected with home values dropping like they have. Home Depot helped put a spark in the equity markets this morning with a positive earnings report. This morning’s rally seems to be more of a reaction from yesterday’s loss, but further shows the resiliency of the equity market and how we just can’t seem to get some downward movement over several trading days.
Thursday, the Treasury Dept will announce their auctions for T-bills which will happen next week; these always compete for money in MBS’s…
I will be in the office all day today. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me first and let me know it’s coming. Otherwise, if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question, please email me or call me here. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Financial Market Update #1/ Week of August 17, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! If you have been looking for lower rates, this is a happy morning for you . . . if you are a stock trader, probably not so much. This morning’s sell off in equity markets kicked off in Tokyo late last night (our time) with an announcement that the Japanese economy grew at a slower than expected pace in the 2nd quarter. The Tokyo stock market (Nikkei 225) sold off over 300 points on the news. The ill mood seemed to carry over to Europe and then our shores in pre-market trading.
The news for our economy that was reported this morning wasn’t too bad, actually. The New York Manufacturing Index reported it’s first positive number since April of 2008. A number which indicates expansion. The Feds announced this morning that they will extend their TALF program (Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility) to add liquidity into the lending arena going forward.
This morning is a win-win for mortgage rates. The Fed news is encouraging to credit instruments, and the sell off in the stock market means money is fleeing to the safe havens of the Treasuries and MBS’s. Rates this morning are about .500 better in rebate than Friday morning’s rate sheet. The sell off this morning is broad-based which could mean that selling will continue if traders think the market is moving downward, and this could have a continued positive affect for mortgage rates.
Investors seem slow to chase rates – maybe because they were burned early this year on dismal pull-through percentages. Banks want to be the last ones with whom you lock, not the first. The last bank gets the deal, so they’re willing to wait and let rates fall further, if that’s what they think is going to happen, and pick up the lock at the end of the process. In regards to pull through, it’s no wonder big banks were in support of the latest rounds of regulations. Much of what we have seen implemented in the last 6 months facilitates an effort to keep brokers with the investor with whom they start. It’s very difficult now to jump around from lender to lender once you’ve started the file process, specifically ordering the appraisal and having the lender issue a TIL. Maybe that’s a good thing, but doesn’t seem to be much a benefit to the borrower who might have a feeling of being trapped.
Have a terrific Monday and very profitable week!
The news for our economy that was reported this morning wasn’t too bad, actually. The New York Manufacturing Index reported it’s first positive number since April of 2008. A number which indicates expansion. The Feds announced this morning that they will extend their TALF program (Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility) to add liquidity into the lending arena going forward.
This morning is a win-win for mortgage rates. The Fed news is encouraging to credit instruments, and the sell off in the stock market means money is fleeing to the safe havens of the Treasuries and MBS’s. Rates this morning are about .500 better in rebate than Friday morning’s rate sheet. The sell off this morning is broad-based which could mean that selling will continue if traders think the market is moving downward, and this could have a continued positive affect for mortgage rates.
Investors seem slow to chase rates – maybe because they were burned early this year on dismal pull-through percentages. Banks want to be the last ones with whom you lock, not the first. The last bank gets the deal, so they’re willing to wait and let rates fall further, if that’s what they think is going to happen, and pick up the lock at the end of the process. In regards to pull through, it’s no wonder big banks were in support of the latest rounds of regulations. Much of what we have seen implemented in the last 6 months facilitates an effort to keep brokers with the investor with whom they start. It’s very difficult now to jump around from lender to lender once you’ve started the file process, specifically ordering the appraisal and having the lender issue a TIL. Maybe that’s a good thing, but doesn’t seem to be much a benefit to the borrower who might have a feeling of being trapped.
Have a terrific Monday and very profitable week!
Friday, August 14, 2009
Final FInancial Update/ Week of August 10, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! This week has been a very good week for rates with an especially good move happening today. The University of Michigan August consumer sentiment survey came in this morning at 63.2 – far below the 69 anticipated. Apparently consumers aren’t as optimistic about the near future as stock traders are. We’ve been waiting for some realism to hit the markets with an incredibly resilient equity market of late. Today we’re getting it, as this report just knocked the stuffings out of several weeks of progressive gains in the stock market. If we close where we are right now, the Dow will have lost about 1.4% for the week.
All of this is having a positive affect on rates. Yesterday we improved throughout the day, and today we get some more follow through. Rates don’t reflect, in my opinion, the large moves in credit markets that we have seen in the last couple days. Maybe lock desks are looking forward to the weekend. We hope to get some follow through next week, of course.
***** Notice a big addition to our rate sheets this morning. We’ve added the 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 ARM’s to our conforming rate sheet, and the 5/1 ARM to our “confumbo” rate sheet (page 2). Hopefully this will meet the need of a certain sector of borrowers who might want to take advantage of these extremely low rates. The 5/1 ARM on page 1 is correct, we just need to move the grid down. We still have a few kinks to work out of the system. I’ll follow up in a few mins with the lower note rates.
If you would like to lock a loan this morning, catch us early …. I’ll be in the office all day if you need me. I was tied up yesterday working on these rate sheets. Call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
All of this is having a positive affect on rates. Yesterday we improved throughout the day, and today we get some more follow through. Rates don’t reflect, in my opinion, the large moves in credit markets that we have seen in the last couple days. Maybe lock desks are looking forward to the weekend. We hope to get some follow through next week, of course.
***** Notice a big addition to our rate sheets this morning. We’ve added the 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 ARM’s to our conforming rate sheet, and the 5/1 ARM to our “confumbo” rate sheet (page 2). Hopefully this will meet the need of a certain sector of borrowers who might want to take advantage of these extremely low rates. The 5/1 ARM on page 1 is correct, we just need to move the grid down. We still have a few kinks to work out of the system. I’ll follow up in a few mins with the lower note rates.
If you would like to lock a loan this morning, catch us early …. I’ll be in the office all day if you need me. I was tied up yesterday working on these rate sheets. Call me here or email me with your pricing or loan scenario question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Financial Update #4/ Week of August 10. 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Yesterday we talked about how the equity markets are exactly even for the week. We ended the day yesterday with the Dow down 2 points so far in the weeks first 3 days of trading. Today we’re all over the place in and around the flat line, but no definite move one way or the other. The good news is . . . credit markets, albeit slightly, have improved along the way. Yesterday’s Treasury auction went well, and we have one more day of auction today with $15 Billion worth of 30-year T-bills for sale. The Feds didn’t really have anything to say yesterday that jolted the markets, so we just keep improving on the credit instruments. I’d like to think we’re going to see more of the same going cautiously forward for a couple weeks.
Traders have a lot to digest this morning on a veritable buffet of economic news. Wal-mart and Kohl’s both reported better than expected earnings this morning, but they are apparently the exception. Retail sales for July were down .1%, surprising analysts who were looking for an increase of .8% -- which was the updated figure in June. Initial jobless claims for last week were about 13K more than experts were anticipating, at 558K. The previous week’s claims were 554K, so no big news there. The Continuing claims fell to 6.20 million from a revised 6.34 million last week. Europe surprised the world by announcing that the German and French economies actually expanded by .3% in the 2nd quarter of 2009. This is big news as much of the world was still recessing in Q2.
Traders can’t seem to get the equity markets to move in either direction, but credit markets are clearly better and we have made up the small losses from yesterday. Our rates are within a couple bps of yesterday morning’s rate sheet. We’ll take that. I’ll be in the office all day today, call me here or email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Thursday!
Traders have a lot to digest this morning on a veritable buffet of economic news. Wal-mart and Kohl’s both reported better than expected earnings this morning, but they are apparently the exception. Retail sales for July were down .1%, surprising analysts who were looking for an increase of .8% -- which was the updated figure in June. Initial jobless claims for last week were about 13K more than experts were anticipating, at 558K. The previous week’s claims were 554K, so no big news there. The Continuing claims fell to 6.20 million from a revised 6.34 million last week. Europe surprised the world by announcing that the German and French economies actually expanded by .3% in the 2nd quarter of 2009. This is big news as much of the world was still recessing in Q2.
Traders can’t seem to get the equity markets to move in either direction, but credit markets are clearly better and we have made up the small losses from yesterday. Our rates are within a couple bps of yesterday morning’s rate sheet. We’ll take that. I’ll be in the office all day today, call me here or email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE #3/ Week of August 10, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! As we have been predicting for too long now, the stock market appears to finally be pulling back a bit. The thing to watch is the resistance lines. Notice yesterday we were down about 70 points on the Dow, we hit a resistance and bounced back up to cut the losses in half. This morning we were down on the Dow a little over 100 points and seemed to have hit a resistance line again. I don’t tend to be a technical trader, but we have seen this pattern over the last couple weeks. Watch for a breakthrough on a particular resistance line and you’ll see others begin to sell on fear. When that happens, we’ll see a sizeable drop in the stock markets which should last a few days.
Fortunately, as we have witnessed for that last couple days, any slight negative move on equities means a benefit in rates, and we are witnessing it again today. Our rates are better by about .500 in rebate from yesterday morning on our conforming 30 year fixed. A nice move in the right direction, but remember last Friday, about 11 days ago. Our 4.875% on Friday afternoon the 31st was a cost of .343 – today it’s a cost of 1.325. SO, we’re making up some ground, but still have a ways to go to get back to where we were just 7 trading days ago.
There are some minor economic news releases this morning. Wholesale inventories dropped in June by 1.7%, about double what the experts were looking for at .9%. This is good news for the economy as companies are continuing to get leaner. This index has dropped consistently for the last 10 months. Productivity increased in the 2nd quarter of ’09 and unit labor costs fell more than anticipated, both signs of a recovering economy. This news is not having much of an impact on trading today, though. The big event that could affect our world is the auction of $37 Billion worth of 3 year T-bills. Demand has been good in recent auctions, and if that persists again today (and 2 more auctions this week) then we could see increased interest in credit instruments.
I will be in the office all day today, so please Call me here at the office or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Fortunately, as we have witnessed for that last couple days, any slight negative move on equities means a benefit in rates, and we are witnessing it again today. Our rates are better by about .500 in rebate from yesterday morning on our conforming 30 year fixed. A nice move in the right direction, but remember last Friday, about 11 days ago. Our 4.875% on Friday afternoon the 31st was a cost of .343 – today it’s a cost of 1.325. SO, we’re making up some ground, but still have a ways to go to get back to where we were just 7 trading days ago.
There are some minor economic news releases this morning. Wholesale inventories dropped in June by 1.7%, about double what the experts were looking for at .9%. This is good news for the economy as companies are continuing to get leaner. This index has dropped consistently for the last 10 months. Productivity increased in the 2nd quarter of ’09 and unit labor costs fell more than anticipated, both signs of a recovering economy. This news is not having much of an impact on trading today, though. The big event that could affect our world is the auction of $37 Billion worth of 3 year T-bills. Demand has been good in recent auctions, and if that persists again today (and 2 more auctions this week) then we could see increased interest in credit instruments.
I will be in the office all day today, so please Call me here at the office or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Update #2/ Week of August 10, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! As we have been predicting for too long now, the stock market appears to finally be pulling back a bit. The thing to watch is the resistance lines. Notice yesterday we were down about 70 points on the Dow, we hit a resistance and bounced back up to cut the losses in half. This morning we were down on the Dow a little over 100 points and seemed to have hit a resistance line again. I don’t tend to be a technical trader, but we have seen this pattern over the last couple weeks. Watch for a breakthrough on a particular resistance line and you’ll see others begin to sell on fear. When that happens, we’ll see a sizeable drop in the stock markets which should last a few days.
Fortunately, as we have witnessed for that last couple days, any slight negative move on equities means a benefit in rates, and we are witnessing it again today. Our rates are better by about .500 in rebate from yesterday morning on our conforming 30 year fixed. A nice move in the right direction, but remember last Friday, about 11 days ago. Our 4.875% on Friday afternoon the 31st was a cost of .343 – today it’s a cost of 1.325. SO, we’re making up some ground, but still have a ways to go to get back to where we were just 7 trading days ago.
There are some minor economic news releases this morning. Wholesale inventories dropped in June by 1.7%, about double what the experts were looking for at .9%. This is good news for the economy as companies are continuing to get leaner. This index has dropped consistently for the last 10 months. Productivity increased in the 2nd quarter of ’09 and unit labor costs fell more than anticipated, both signs of a recovering economy. This news is not having much of an impact on trading today, though. The big event that could affect our world is the auction of $37 Billion worth of 3 year T-bills. Demand has been good in recent auctions, and if that persists again today (and 2 more auctions this week) then we could see increased interest in credit instruments.
I will be in the office all day today, so please Call me here at the office or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Fortunately, as we have witnessed for that last couple days, any slight negative move on equities means a benefit in rates, and we are witnessing it again today. Our rates are better by about .500 in rebate from yesterday morning on our conforming 30 year fixed. A nice move in the right direction, but remember last Friday, about 11 days ago. Our 4.875% on Friday afternoon the 31st was a cost of .343 – today it’s a cost of 1.325. SO, we’re making up some ground, but still have a ways to go to get back to where we were just 7 trading days ago.
There are some minor economic news releases this morning. Wholesale inventories dropped in June by 1.7%, about double what the experts were looking for at .9%. This is good news for the economy as companies are continuing to get leaner. This index has dropped consistently for the last 10 months. Productivity increased in the 2nd quarter of ’09 and unit labor costs fell more than anticipated, both signs of a recovering economy. This news is not having much of an impact on trading today, though. The big event that could affect our world is the auction of $37 Billion worth of 3 year T-bills. Demand has been good in recent auctions, and if that persists again today (and 2 more auctions this week) then we could see increased interest in credit instruments.
I will be in the office all day today, so please Call me here at the office or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Friday, August 7, 2009
Final Update/ Week of August 3, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! If you were hoping for a quiet last day of the week so you can get an early start on the weekend . . . you got it. The unemployment report came in with a surprise drop in unemployment figures and the stock market is off to the races once again. Credit instruments have sold off as money is chasing the quick profits over on Wall Street. In a week that we forecasted last Friday would bring some settling to the markets and possible improved pricing, we’ve lost considerable ground. Last Friday at this time 4.875 was a cost of .468 on our 30 year fixed product, today it’s a cost of over 2 points. BUT, we will improve….
What’s all the ruckus about over on Wall Street? The July unemployment report posted 247,000 job losses, far less than the 350K or so anticipated by the experts. It also marks the fewest job losses since Aug. of 2008 – a clear sign that things have improved in the economy. Yet, unemployment is hard to track as this report tells us who is: 1) Out of work, and 2) Able, willing and currently actively seeking a job. Those who have stopped looking for a job or have entered the work force at a considerable change in pay, do not count. Even still, this is pretty encouraging, and we do need the economy to come back . . .
Yet, rates are considerably taking it on the chin this morning. We’re anywhere from .5 to .625 worse in rebate on the lower note offerings, but not as drastic at the higher note rates. Maybe we should think about trying to sell ARM’s. We’re going to be getting them on the rate sheets soon here. When 4.875 on a 30 year fixed is a cost of over 2 points, and 4.875% on a 5/1 ARM is a rebate of (1.385) – it’s time to see which borrowers can still benefit with a shorter fixed term loan. On that same 5/1 ARM . . . 4.5% is a rebate of (.671) . . . 4.25 still has a slight rebate of (.009). Call me for specific pricing if you need a quote.
I’ll be in the office all day today, but if things are as quiet as I suspect they’ll be, I might sneak outta here mid afternoon. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
What’s all the ruckus about over on Wall Street? The July unemployment report posted 247,000 job losses, far less than the 350K or so anticipated by the experts. It also marks the fewest job losses since Aug. of 2008 – a clear sign that things have improved in the economy. Yet, unemployment is hard to track as this report tells us who is: 1) Out of work, and 2) Able, willing and currently actively seeking a job. Those who have stopped looking for a job or have entered the work force at a considerable change in pay, do not count. Even still, this is pretty encouraging, and we do need the economy to come back . . .
Yet, rates are considerably taking it on the chin this morning. We’re anywhere from .5 to .625 worse in rebate on the lower note offerings, but not as drastic at the higher note rates. Maybe we should think about trying to sell ARM’s. We’re going to be getting them on the rate sheets soon here. When 4.875 on a 30 year fixed is a cost of over 2 points, and 4.875% on a 5/1 ARM is a rebate of (1.385) – it’s time to see which borrowers can still benefit with a shorter fixed term loan. On that same 5/1 ARM . . . 4.5% is a rebate of (.671) . . . 4.25 still has a slight rebate of (.009). Call me for specific pricing if you need a quote.
I’ll be in the office all day today, but if things are as quiet as I suspect they’ll be, I might sneak outta here mid afternoon. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Update #4/ Week of August 3, 2009
Good Morning and Happy Thursday! The stock market is stubbornly holding onto its gains of the past month, but one thing is obvious, the month long rally appears to be over. Try as it may, the bullish equity traders just aren’t able to forge ahead any further. We’ve seen choppiness now for the last several trading sessions, and every run up is met with resistance. Unfortunately, credit markets aren’t able to benefit from the stalled rally. Rates are actually slightly worse this morning from yesterday’s start. We improved yesterday afternoon, but have given back all the gains and then some.
The stock market is basically hovering around the flat line today due to a lack of market-moving economic data. Initial jobless claims filed for the week ending Aug 1 came in at 550K, better than the 580K anticipated. This might have created a positive move in the markets, but the continuing claims actually rose to 6.31 million, slightly higher than the 6.25 million expected, and also higher than the 6.24 million from last week. All this comes a day ahead of tomorrow’s unemployment report, which could be a real market mover.
I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me and I’ll get back to you ASAP. Have a terrific Thursday!
The stock market is basically hovering around the flat line today due to a lack of market-moving economic data. Initial jobless claims filed for the week ending Aug 1 came in at 550K, better than the 580K anticipated. This might have created a positive move in the markets, but the continuing claims actually rose to 6.31 million, slightly higher than the 6.25 million expected, and also higher than the 6.24 million from last week. All this comes a day ahead of tomorrow’s unemployment report, which could be a real market mover.
I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me and I’ll get back to you ASAP. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Update #3/ Week of August 3, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Maybe we’re finally seeing the beginning of the much anticipated pull back in the stock markets. All major indices are down this morning, from Asia to Europe to our own equity trading floors. Credit instruments are thus far not the beneficiaries. Pricing is reflective of yesterday’s and this morning’s early losses, and investors on the mortgage secondary marketing desks seem to be leaving themselves a little buffer this morning. Hopefully we’ll see some improvements throughout the day in rates and rebates.
We have an “equal and opposite” reaction happening today on Wall Street. Yesterday a few good news reports sent the stock markets into positive territory. Today’s reports aren’t quite so rosy, so the bears seem to be in control of Wall Street today. The July ADP Employment report came in with a loss of 371K jobs, worse than the 350K anticipated. This sets the stage for Friday’s official unemployment report for July from the Labor Dept., expected to be a loss of 328K jobs.
The ISM Service Index for July came in at 46.4 this morning, worse than the 48 expected. We saw the opposite thing happen earlier this week with the ISM Manufacturing numbers which were better than expected. The lone happy report today comes from June factory orders which came in with a .4% increase – far better than the .8% loss anticipated. Factory orders for May were revised lower, but this is a 3 month run for positive factory order numbers.
I’m in the office all day today . . . call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Humpday!
We have an “equal and opposite” reaction happening today on Wall Street. Yesterday a few good news reports sent the stock markets into positive territory. Today’s reports aren’t quite so rosy, so the bears seem to be in control of Wall Street today. The July ADP Employment report came in with a loss of 371K jobs, worse than the 350K anticipated. This sets the stage for Friday’s official unemployment report for July from the Labor Dept., expected to be a loss of 328K jobs.
The ISM Service Index for July came in at 46.4 this morning, worse than the 48 expected. We saw the opposite thing happen earlier this week with the ISM Manufacturing numbers which were better than expected. The lone happy report today comes from June factory orders which came in with a .4% increase – far better than the .8% loss anticipated. Factory orders for May were revised lower, but this is a 3 month run for positive factory order numbers.
I’m in the office all day today . . . call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Update #2/ Week of August 3, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Pundits still call for a pull back in the stock market as equity traders continue to post new highs day after day. The S&P has gained more than 3% in just the last 3 trading sessions. Take a look at any graph of any index on the equity side for the last month and the rally is quite impressive. It appeared we might get some giving back of some of the recent gains this morning right out of the gate, but several economic news reports fueled another come back and all indexes are in positive territory as of this writing. One of our investors repriced almost 30 mins after posting their early morning rate sheet, but things seem to have settled down a bit now. Our pricing is still better than last Tuesday’s, but a little worse than yesterday’s.
What could have sparked another rally again today? I’m glad you asked. Personal incomes dropped a bit more than analysts expected in June. The drop was 1.3% when experts were anticipating a 1.0% drop. That’s really not much of a surprise with all the unemployment going on in our economy and businesses cutting everyone’s hours back as much as possible– very frustrating for everyone. Personal spending rose in the face of declining incomes, a rise of .4% in June, better than the .3% increase expected.
Stocks got their pop this morning when the NAR reported that pending homes sales rose 3.6% in June, far better than the .7% increase expected. This report has largely been written off as insignificant in recent months since pending contracts have such a low pull-through rate these days. Yet, this is the 5th straight month of positive numbers, so there is definitely activity in the real estate market. Albeit, most contracts are at the shallow end of the price range pool.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
What could have sparked another rally again today? I’m glad you asked. Personal incomes dropped a bit more than analysts expected in June. The drop was 1.3% when experts were anticipating a 1.0% drop. That’s really not much of a surprise with all the unemployment going on in our economy and businesses cutting everyone’s hours back as much as possible– very frustrating for everyone. Personal spending rose in the face of declining incomes, a rise of .4% in June, better than the .3% increase expected.
Stocks got their pop this morning when the NAR reported that pending homes sales rose 3.6% in June, far better than the .7% increase expected. This report has largely been written off as insignificant in recent months since pending contracts have such a low pull-through rate these days. Yet, this is the 5th straight month of positive numbers, so there is definitely activity in the real estate market. Albeit, most contracts are at the shallow end of the price range pool.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, August 3, 2009
Update #1/ Week of August 3, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! There’s plenty to read about in the financial section of today’s newspaper, beginning with the previously discussed Cash for Clunkers programs that has been a wild success for auto makers. Although it only occurred in the last 5 days of the month of July, it is being credited as the “vehicle” for success (pun intended) for Ford’s report this morning of it’s first year-over-year (albeit only 1.6%) sales increase in 20 months! Ford stock is up almost 6.5% on the news.
The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.9 for July, encouragingly close to the 50 mark which represents expansion. A number below 50 represents contraction, but with June’s index at 44.8, July’s number is a big move in the right direction. Construction spending for June report came in with a rise of .3% surprising analysts who were looking for a .5% decline. May’s number was revised to a .9% decline. Of course, this is Summer and ‘tis the season for construction, but both of these reports are obviously giving the equity markets a big lift today. In Chicago, as the saying goes, there are only 2 seasons . . . winter and construction (usually in reference to the roads).
The NASDAQ has crested the 2000 point level, and the S&P has topped 1000 for the first time this year. Treasuries are getting pounded, but the MBS’s are doing much better holding their own. This week should be a good week for MBS’s as there is little competition in the credit markets. As long as the equity markets do not continue to rise, as they have so far, then money will seek safe haven of MBS’s . . . that’s the plan. J Our pricing this morning is almost identical to the pricing of Friday morning before the improvement of the afternoon. SO, the losses aren’t bad.
I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me with your pricing or loan scenario questions. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.9 for July, encouragingly close to the 50 mark which represents expansion. A number below 50 represents contraction, but with June’s index at 44.8, July’s number is a big move in the right direction. Construction spending for June report came in with a rise of .3% surprising analysts who were looking for a .5% decline. May’s number was revised to a .9% decline. Of course, this is Summer and ‘tis the season for construction, but both of these reports are obviously giving the equity markets a big lift today. In Chicago, as the saying goes, there are only 2 seasons . . . winter and construction (usually in reference to the roads).
The NASDAQ has crested the 2000 point level, and the S&P has topped 1000 for the first time this year. Treasuries are getting pounded, but the MBS’s are doing much better holding their own. This week should be a good week for MBS’s as there is little competition in the credit markets. As long as the equity markets do not continue to rise, as they have so far, then money will seek safe haven of MBS’s . . . that’s the plan. J Our pricing this morning is almost identical to the pricing of Friday morning before the improvement of the afternoon. SO, the losses aren’t bad.
I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me with your pricing or loan scenario questions. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
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