Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Wow . . . what an exciting afternoon we had yesterday! Can you believe this pricing? As we’ve seen so many times in the past, we get an afternoon price improvement, followed by a little pull back the next morning. However, how often do we see the stock market rally and the credit markets improve significantly in the same afternoon? That’s what happened yesterday, and this morning we’re seeing a little caution. The cautious mood in credit markets is due to the quick start the stock market had and in the first ½ hour of trading this morning. It appeared we were off to another rally in equities, and credit markets took a step back to see what would happen.
The positive tone on Wall Street this morning was due to some economic news that hit the wires early. First of all, we had the IMF revise their forecast for the world economy for 2009 and 2010 from it’s previous prediction in July. They changed their outlook from a decline of 1.4% in 2009 to a drop of only 1.0%, and their 2010 forecast from a growth of 2.5% to a positive 3.0%. This story put traders in a good mood going into the opening bell.
Then we rec’d word from the S&P Case/Schiller about home prices in our country. In it’s 20-city composite, it’s home price index reported that we only dropped 13.3% in July compared to the same month last year. Isn’t that great news!?!?! Experts were looking for a drop of 14.2% -- and the spin doctors are doing their best to make this out to be a positive thing. We’re sinking, but not as quickly as we thought we were.
Thus, things are good and the stock market continued it’s rally from yesterday . . . that is, until the Consumer Confidence report came out from the Conference Board. It’s index for September came in at 53.1, just below the 54.1 in August, but considerably below the 57.0 anticipated by the experts. Hence, the stock market began to sell off and credit markets are creeping positively back to the unchanged mark.
Pricing has taken a bit of a hit, but not too bad. We’re somewhere in between where we started yesterday and where we finished. The Confumbo 5/1 ARM several of you were asking about yesterday has actually improved. Take a look on page 2 and you will see what I’m talking about.
I’ll be in the office all day and as long as you need me to be in order to get your loans locked. Be sure to call me here or email me to let me know your lock is coming and I’ll be sure to get it locked for you. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
Update #1/ week of September 28, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! What’s happening in the stock market this morning? Good question . . . there’s no economic news releases today, and no corporate announcements of note. The only thing that’s happening of any positive consequence is some M&A activity. Mergers and Acquisitions are viewed as a positive scenario for the stock market as it shows companies have money and are willing to spend it based on a bright outlook for the future. On the other hand, this is a good time to pick up companies that need some help or are “on the bubble.”
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Update #1/ week of September 28, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! What’s happening in the stock market this morning? Good question . . . there’s no economic news releases today, and no corporate announcements of note. The only thing that’s happening of any positive consequence is some M&A activity. Mergers and Acquisitions are viewed as a positive scenario for the stock market as it shows companies have money and are willing to spend it based on a bright outlook for the future. On the other hand, this is a good time to pick up companies that need some help or are “on the bubble.”
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Clearly there is plenty of cash out sitting in the safe at investment houses, and bull traders are willing to spend it (since there is basically no chance of return most anywhere else) and take advantage of a quiet session to recoup some of the losses from last week. Is this sustainable? One wouldn’t think so, but this is an awfully difficult market to predict – we’re certainly in uncharted territory. In my humble opinion, what’s happening today is just fluff. There’s no basis for it, and the equity rally will be short lived.
Credit markets were in a mood to improve this morning until the stock market took off like it did and was able to hold on to its gains for a few hours. Thus, the credit market now has retreated to hedge their bets and wait and see what happens later today and throughout the week. Pricing is actually slightly better on most note offerings this morning compared to Friday morning’s rate sheet. So, we’ll take it for now, we were due a little betterment after Friday’s good day on the credit side.
The 30 year conforming pricing on the top of page 1 is yielding a cost of just over 1 point at 4.5%! Pretty hot pricing! Remember, we assume no impounds in our pricing.
I will be in the office all day today, and am available for your pricing or loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me . . . and have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Friday, September 25, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of September 21, 2009
Welcome to all new subscribers, Good Morning and Happy Friday! It looks like today may be a real good day for us if the stock market continues to slide. Credit markets are rallying as I write this, and if this pattern continues, we should get some improvement in pricing today. The stock market had it’s first back to back losing session since the beginning of the month. Today’s loss would make it 3 days in a row, and that hasn’t happened for quite some time. It appears the Bears on Wall Street are finally winning the tug-o’-war.
The batch of economic news released this morning was mostly negative. In fact, the only bright spot of the morning’s financial news releases was consumer confidence -- just hilarious. The consumer continues to feel confident about the future even though they are not putting their wallets where their mouths are. Have we already said that several times?
Durable Goods Orders for August came in down 2.4%, far worse than the .4% increase for which the “experts” were looking. Even more, this is down from July’s revised increase of 4.8%. Looking back, July was sure a good month in many respects, but August is having a hard time keeping pace. New Home Sales report came in with an increase of .7% over July. It’s annualized rate of 429K units fell short though, of analysts’ expectations of 440K units.
Stocks are struggling to minimize the loses this morning so far . . . and we are seeing an “equal and opposite reaction” in credit markets . . . may the trend continue throughout the day. So far this morning’s initial rate offerings have bested (though slightly) the improved pricing from yesterday afternoon.
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Also, be sure to email me when you’re faxing over a lock request so I can be sure it gets locked. If I don’t hear from you today, have a terrific Friday and a very restful and enjoyable weekend!
The batch of economic news released this morning was mostly negative. In fact, the only bright spot of the morning’s financial news releases was consumer confidence -- just hilarious. The consumer continues to feel confident about the future even though they are not putting their wallets where their mouths are. Have we already said that several times?
Durable Goods Orders for August came in down 2.4%, far worse than the .4% increase for which the “experts” were looking. Even more, this is down from July’s revised increase of 4.8%. Looking back, July was sure a good month in many respects, but August is having a hard time keeping pace. New Home Sales report came in with an increase of .7% over July. It’s annualized rate of 429K units fell short though, of analysts’ expectations of 440K units.
Stocks are struggling to minimize the loses this morning so far . . . and we are seeing an “equal and opposite reaction” in credit markets . . . may the trend continue throughout the day. So far this morning’s initial rate offerings have bested (though slightly) the improved pricing from yesterday afternoon.
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Also, be sure to email me when you’re faxing over a lock request so I can be sure it gets locked. If I don’t hear from you today, have a terrific Friday and a very restful and enjoyable weekend!
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Financial Update #2. Week of September 21, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! It’s hard to believe the stock market is rallying again today, but it’s true. After losing just over 40 points yesterday, the Dow has recouped all of that plus some. We lost a little ground on pricing yesterday, even with the losses in equities, and we’re losing a bit more again today. Each week we wait for the correction, but there seems to be plenty of money out there for traders to spend, and each dip is met with buying up those deals.
There’s a lot of talk about the weak dollar today and that is creating a boon for commodities. Gold hits another record today at $1,016 an ounce. This is the same pattern that happened just before the dot com bust several years ago. The Feds are meeting today and are due to release their decision on interest rates tomorrow late morning. There are no surprises expected in either the decision to change rates or in their comments afterwards. I mean really, what else would they say? The worst seems to be behind us, financial markets are stabilizing, we see encouraging signs in certain sectors of the economy. Our national economy is weak but not at the bottom, and we are in for a long recovery. Same ‘ol, same ‘ol . . . and thus we have general calm in stock and credit markets today.
Home prices for July saw a minor increase of .3%, not quite the .5% analysts were expecting, but a good sign. Of course, it is in the middle of Summer and we’re only comparing that number to the dismal number reported the month previous. The Treasury is auctioning off a batch of 2 year notes today, so we may have some movement in credit markets from this event – the announcement is due in about 10 mins. More than likely, all markets will float along today and tomorrow until the Fed decision is released, and even then there probably won’t be any major reaction.
I will be in the office all day today. Our jumbo products are really knockin’ it out of the park right now. Call me here or email me if I can help you out in any way, and have a terrific Tuesday!
There’s a lot of talk about the weak dollar today and that is creating a boon for commodities. Gold hits another record today at $1,016 an ounce. This is the same pattern that happened just before the dot com bust several years ago. The Feds are meeting today and are due to release their decision on interest rates tomorrow late morning. There are no surprises expected in either the decision to change rates or in their comments afterwards. I mean really, what else would they say? The worst seems to be behind us, financial markets are stabilizing, we see encouraging signs in certain sectors of the economy. Our national economy is weak but not at the bottom, and we are in for a long recovery. Same ‘ol, same ‘ol . . . and thus we have general calm in stock and credit markets today.
Home prices for July saw a minor increase of .3%, not quite the .5% analysts were expecting, but a good sign. Of course, it is in the middle of Summer and we’re only comparing that number to the dismal number reported the month previous. The Treasury is auctioning off a batch of 2 year notes today, so we may have some movement in credit markets from this event – the announcement is due in about 10 mins. More than likely, all markets will float along today and tomorrow until the Fed decision is released, and even then there probably won’t be any major reaction.
I will be in the office all day today. Our jumbo products are really knockin’ it out of the park right now. Call me here or email me if I can help you out in any way, and have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, September 21, 2009
Financial Update #1/ Week of September 21, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday!
There are no major news releases this morning except for a report of the leading indicators for August which showed an increase, but not as much of an increase as analysts were expecting. This may have had something to do with the turn around this morning, but this is a pattern we keep seeing over and over again. The stock market dropped off a cliff at the opening bell this morning, but the bulls were right there to snatch up the drop and bring us back almost to even within a couple hours. One of these days, we think, the bulls won’t be there to buy in and we’ll continue the slide for a near 10% correction. Maybe it will start this week.
Jumbo Financing is BACK, to $1,000,000 on 5/1 ARM offerings…email or call for details!
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
There are no major news releases this morning except for a report of the leading indicators for August which showed an increase, but not as much of an increase as analysts were expecting. This may have had something to do with the turn around this morning, but this is a pattern we keep seeing over and over again. The stock market dropped off a cliff at the opening bell this morning, but the bulls were right there to snatch up the drop and bring us back almost to even within a couple hours. One of these days, we think, the bulls won’t be there to buy in and we’ll continue the slide for a near 10% correction. Maybe it will start this week.
Jumbo Financing is BACK, to $1,000,000 on 5/1 ARM offerings…email or call for details!
I will be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
Friday, September 18, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of September 14, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Friday! Today brings us the unemployment numbers for the individual states. California actually DOESN’T lead the nation in total layoffs this month. In July our state laid off 38K workers, in August that number dropped to 12K (maybe there’s fewer jobs available to lay off). The rate of unemployment rose to 12.2%, but thankfully, the number of layoffs decreased significantly. We are one of 42 states who’s unemployment rate rose again in August. Some pundits are predicting that the unemployment rate will crest by the end of the year or early next year. Yet, Reuters reported yesterday that Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman said that “unemployment in the U.S. will peak in early 2011 because of a slow and painful recovery from the global economic crisis.” This is that 800 pound gorilla we’ve talked about before that’s standing over there in the corner about which nobody wants to talk.
We did end up having a good day in credit markets yesterday, and are giving back some of our gains today. Even still, our pricing this morning is about .25 better in rebate than yesterday morning’s note offerings. The stock market continues to impress as bulls seem to step up and buy in at every dip. How long can they continue to do this? I don’t know, but one thing’s for sure, rates improve significantly with every time we have a serious drop in stock prices. The Dow has gained about 2% this week, and 7% in the last 10 trading days . . . with only 2 down days during this stretch. Impressive to say the least.
There are no other economic news releases and no corporate announcements on the docket today. Since options and futures contracts do expire today, we’ll likely see some volatility in the equity markets Monday. Hopefully we’ll get back some of our progress in credit markets from yesterday.
I will be in the office all day today catching up on yesterday’s biz and handling the new business of the day. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
We did end up having a good day in credit markets yesterday, and are giving back some of our gains today. Even still, our pricing this morning is about .25 better in rebate than yesterday morning’s note offerings. The stock market continues to impress as bulls seem to step up and buy in at every dip. How long can they continue to do this? I don’t know, but one thing’s for sure, rates improve significantly with every time we have a serious drop in stock prices. The Dow has gained about 2% this week, and 7% in the last 10 trading days . . . with only 2 down days during this stretch. Impressive to say the least.
There are no other economic news releases and no corporate announcements on the docket today. Since options and futures contracts do expire today, we’ll likely see some volatility in the equity markets Monday. Hopefully we’ll get back some of our progress in credit markets from yesterday.
I will be in the office all day today catching up on yesterday’s biz and handling the new business of the day. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Financial Update #2/ Week of September 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! We’ve been in a “trough” in equity markets for several days now. The Dow, for example, closed at 9,627 on Thursday, and we closed at 9,626 yesterday afternoon. This morning we’ve been all over the unchanged mark with some major economic reports hitting the wires earlier today. One has to ask, this trough won’t last for long . . . and when we break out of it (considering the last 8 weeks of gains) which way are we going to break? Chances are leaning toward downward, with the history of September trading as we know it.
One evidence for the argument that stocks are not going to break higher is the reaction to this morning’s retail sales report. It was reported this morning that August retail sales rose 2.7%, well ahead of the 1.9% increase anticipated by the experts. We all know that the Cash for Clunkers program had much to do with this big jump, but analysts were already taking that into account. The retail sales numbers less the auto industry still showed impressive gains. Since consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the GDP, you’d think the stock market would rally off the charts.
This sales report was somewhat tempered by the August PPI which came in with a 1.7% increase over July’s figures. This was quite a surprise to the experts also who were looking for an increase of .8%. Inflation is a big worry for economists and investors going forward, and a big number like this on the producer side means that they will be passing this cost on to the consumer in the months to come. The Empire Manufacturing Survey posted it’s 6th straight monthly improvement at 18.9 for September, better than the 15.0 for which analysts were looking.
All of this is having a mixed reaction in both markets . . . we’ll call it basically flat. Pricing for us, unfortunately, has worsened about .25 to .375 in rebate from yesterday morning’s note offerings. Financial institutions do not want to hear anything about inflation when they are getting locks in at 4.75% interest rate on 30 year commitments! A healthy 3% inflation year over year would nearly wipe out the profit on these securites in a matter of a few years, and then these mortgage notes will basically be worthless, and consumers won’t want to refinance to give up their great rate. Last week was a good week for rates even with the stock market on the rise. This week, it’s just not the case.
I will be in the office all day today for your pricing and loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
One evidence for the argument that stocks are not going to break higher is the reaction to this morning’s retail sales report. It was reported this morning that August retail sales rose 2.7%, well ahead of the 1.9% increase anticipated by the experts. We all know that the Cash for Clunkers program had much to do with this big jump, but analysts were already taking that into account. The retail sales numbers less the auto industry still showed impressive gains. Since consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the GDP, you’d think the stock market would rally off the charts.
This sales report was somewhat tempered by the August PPI which came in with a 1.7% increase over July’s figures. This was quite a surprise to the experts also who were looking for an increase of .8%. Inflation is a big worry for economists and investors going forward, and a big number like this on the producer side means that they will be passing this cost on to the consumer in the months to come. The Empire Manufacturing Survey posted it’s 6th straight monthly improvement at 18.9 for September, better than the 15.0 for which analysts were looking.
All of this is having a mixed reaction in both markets . . . we’ll call it basically flat. Pricing for us, unfortunately, has worsened about .25 to .375 in rebate from yesterday morning’s note offerings. Financial institutions do not want to hear anything about inflation when they are getting locks in at 4.75% interest rate on 30 year commitments! A healthy 3% inflation year over year would nearly wipe out the profit on these securites in a matter of a few years, and then these mortgage notes will basically be worthless, and consumers won’t want to refinance to give up their great rate. Last week was a good week for rates even with the stock market on the rise. This week, it’s just not the case.
I will be in the office all day today for your pricing and loan scenario questions. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, September 14, 2009
Financial Update #1/ Week of September 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! The stock market is surprisingly flat this morning leading up to the President’s address to Wall Street which just wrapped up. Asian markets started the negative tone early this morning which carried over to European markets. China is upset about some punitive sanctions we just slapped down on their tire imports, so they are threatening to restrict importing to us their chickens and auto parts. Do we not have enough chickens in our country to feed all of us? I guess not, what do I know.
I do know that the President’s speech to Wall Street in respect to the financial industry calls for more government, more oversight, higher capitalization and liquidity for banks, more rules and regulations . . . and the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Financials are the laggards this morning as expected, and thus far as I mentioned above the markets are amazingly flat. We’ll have to wait, I guess, for a bit to see what the reaction is to the speech once all the pundits come out with their spins.
Pricing is slightly worse than Friday morning’s pricing, and almost mirrors the pricing of last Thursday morning. Rates have pretty much been in a tight trading range for several days now awaiting a breakthrough we hope soon. I will be in the office all day today, please call me or email me here if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
I do know that the President’s speech to Wall Street in respect to the financial industry calls for more government, more oversight, higher capitalization and liquidity for banks, more rules and regulations . . . and the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Financials are the laggards this morning as expected, and thus far as I mentioned above the markets are amazingly flat. We’ll have to wait, I guess, for a bit to see what the reaction is to the speech once all the pundits come out with their spins.
Pricing is slightly worse than Friday morning’s pricing, and almost mirrors the pricing of last Thursday morning. Rates have pretty much been in a tight trading range for several days now awaiting a breakthrough we hope soon. I will be in the office all day today, please call me or email me here if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Monday and a very prosperous week!
Friday, September 11, 2009
Final Financial Update/ Week of September 07, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! The Stock markets struggle to hold to gains and score their 6th winning day in a row. Though the daily gains have been minimal, the fact that the equity markets have been consistently positive since July 10th is truly wonderful. Every downturn has been met with buying interest and the stock market continues to climb upward and onward. Analysts have been saying that we’re in for a correction for weeks now, but it’s yet to happen. The really terrific news in all of this is that rates have continued to fall during this same time period.
On that July 10th morning, 4.875% was a cost of .199 on our 30 year conforming product. Today, we’re giving a rebate of (.630) – that really is quite amazing, in light of the fact that the Dow has risen 20% in that same time frame. We’ll take it though, we sure need to get the volume going. Today’s 4.625% is only slightly more than .500 cost and the magic 4.5% is a cost of .941 – less than 1 point! Who’d have thought? On the 10/1 ARM, 4.5% is only a .334 cost. Credit markets are improving again today, investors are still stingy, being a Friday, so one has to wonder what next week holds for us.
The stock market turned positive this morning when the Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reported a number that beat expectations. Always a crack up for me to see traders get excited about how consumers feel at the moment. Consumers might feel good about the future of the economy, but they certainly aren’t putting their money where their hearts are! Inventories fell a bit more than expected also, and that is a positive for businesses nation wide.
I’ll be in the office all morning, but will be out this afternoon. Have a terrific Friday and a very relaxing and enjoyable weekend!
On that July 10th morning, 4.875% was a cost of .199 on our 30 year conforming product. Today, we’re giving a rebate of (.630) – that really is quite amazing, in light of the fact that the Dow has risen 20% in that same time frame. We’ll take it though, we sure need to get the volume going. Today’s 4.625% is only slightly more than .500 cost and the magic 4.5% is a cost of .941 – less than 1 point! Who’d have thought? On the 10/1 ARM, 4.5% is only a .334 cost. Credit markets are improving again today, investors are still stingy, being a Friday, so one has to wonder what next week holds for us.
The stock market turned positive this morning when the Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reported a number that beat expectations. Always a crack up for me to see traders get excited about how consumers feel at the moment. Consumers might feel good about the future of the economy, but they certainly aren’t putting their money where their hearts are! Inventories fell a bit more than expected also, and that is a positive for businesses nation wide.
I’ll be in the office all morning, but will be out this afternoon. Have a terrific Friday and a very relaxing and enjoyable weekend!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Update #3/ Week of September 7, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! European stock markets reversed the downward trend of the Asian markets early this morning and set the stage for a positive opening for US equities. There are only a couple potential catalysts for the market to digest later this morning. One of these events is the results from the $20 billion auction of 10 year Treasury notes that is expected in about 20 mins. Demand has been strong for short term investment vehicles of late helping our rates on the mortgage ARM’s to remain very low. Our fixed rates this morning are actually slightly better than this time yesterday.
The other catalyst that might have an impact on equity markets is the release of the Fed’s Beige Book due at about 11:00 AM. This report has a big impact on what the Fed’s do when it comes time to raise or lower rates. Nobody expects any change in the near future, but the head of the Chicago Fed said that when they do raise rates, it will be substantial and quick in an attempt to keep a “hawkish eye” on inflation. That will be potentially devastation for the housing recovery, but keeping inflation in check is the Fed’s number one job, even to the detriment of the housing market.
FYI, the 5/1 ARM product is now strictly below 4% and looking like it will hover below 4% for a while….
I will be in the office all day today, although I will be in our monthly mortgage meeting for an hour starting at 1PM. Otherwise, I will be available by phone or email. Call me and let’s get some business going! And . . . have a terrific Humpday!
The other catalyst that might have an impact on equity markets is the release of the Fed’s Beige Book due at about 11:00 AM. This report has a big impact on what the Fed’s do when it comes time to raise or lower rates. Nobody expects any change in the near future, but the head of the Chicago Fed said that when they do raise rates, it will be substantial and quick in an attempt to keep a “hawkish eye” on inflation. That will be potentially devastation for the housing recovery, but keeping inflation in check is the Fed’s number one job, even to the detriment of the housing market.
FYI, the 5/1 ARM product is now strictly below 4% and looking like it will hover below 4% for a while….
I will be in the office all day today, although I will be in our monthly mortgage meeting for an hour starting at 1PM. Otherwise, I will be available by phone or email. Call me and let’s get some business going! And . . . have a terrific Humpday!
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Financial Update #4 (of 5)/ Week of August 31, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Markets have been pretty flat the last couple days, presently the Dow is up 30 points making up its loss of 30 points yesterday. Credit markets improved yesterday throughout the day, but are giving back some of their gains this morning. We’re about (.125) worse on rebate this morning than we were yesterday morning at this time. Don’t look for investors to be real aggressive with pricing going into a 3-day weekend. Coming off a 3-day weekend, though, is a much different story, but we’ll have to see how that all plays out next week.
Early this morning the Shanghai Composite Index, which made big news on Monday when it dropped 7%, made up a huge portion of their earlier losses with a rally which resulted in a 4.8% gain. Markets around the world have stabilized on this rally. US equity markets had a bit of a drop this morning when this week’s Initial Jobless Claims was reported at 570K. This is slightly higher than analysts’ expectations, but the Continuing Claims report showed a rise of 9 million from the week previous. These numbers are supposed to be dropping. Remember, employers will get as much out of their present workers as possible, we saw that yesterday with the productivity report. Then, when the economy starts coming back, they’ll higher temps and that will continue for months. It will be some time before employers start hiring full time employees again.
The August ISM Services Index came in at 48.4, still below the even 50 mark, but it’s this is the best reading in a year, and in line with expectations. As I mentioned above, most traders on the equity and credit markets are going to be setting their sights on the last weekend of the Summer soon, so volume will be light, and there shouldn’t be much movement today. We’re not completely clear for the weekend, though. Tomorrow’s unemployment report will likely have some impact on the markets, and rates.
I will be in the office all day to day. Email me or call me here at the office if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
Early this morning the Shanghai Composite Index, which made big news on Monday when it dropped 7%, made up a huge portion of their earlier losses with a rally which resulted in a 4.8% gain. Markets around the world have stabilized on this rally. US equity markets had a bit of a drop this morning when this week’s Initial Jobless Claims was reported at 570K. This is slightly higher than analysts’ expectations, but the Continuing Claims report showed a rise of 9 million from the week previous. These numbers are supposed to be dropping. Remember, employers will get as much out of their present workers as possible, we saw that yesterday with the productivity report. Then, when the economy starts coming back, they’ll higher temps and that will continue for months. It will be some time before employers start hiring full time employees again.
The August ISM Services Index came in at 48.4, still below the even 50 mark, but it’s this is the best reading in a year, and in line with expectations. As I mentioned above, most traders on the equity and credit markets are going to be setting their sights on the last weekend of the Summer soon, so volume will be light, and there shouldn’t be much movement today. We’re not completely clear for the weekend, though. Tomorrow’s unemployment report will likely have some impact on the markets, and rates.
I will be in the office all day to day. Email me or call me here at the office if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
Update #3 (of 5)/ week of August 31, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! My apologies in advance to all of you that are cat lovers, but I just don’t get to use this economic expression very often and today is definitely a day for this expression. After a 186 point drop yesterday in the Dow, we have a dead cat bounce this morning, which means there is no bounce and there is no continued drop. What a strange use of the word “cat”. . . don’t you think? Anyway, good for us . . . investors did not chase the market yesterday as the stock market dropped – we rec’d no price improvements from anyone. Yet, as the rebound did not happen this morning, we are getting the benefit as pricing is about .375 better in rebate on most note rates on the 30 year fixed conforming product.
This morning’s ADP Employment Change Report came in worse than expected. Analysts were looking for job losses of 250K, and the number was considerably higher – 298,000 private sector job losses in August. Analysts are now scrambling to adjust their expectations for Friday’s official unemployment report from the Labor Dept. If there is a bright spot in this report, it would be that 360K (a revised number) jobs were lost in July, so the 298K is quite an improvement. Worker productivity is up, which is to expected. If employers are laying off workers, and not hiring . . . then they’re probably getting more work out of those employees that are left. Employees are working harder and longer hours so they aren’t the next casualty. That makes sense, eh?
Factory orders for July came in lower than expected, but still garnered an increase of 1.3%. Analysts were expecting 2.2%, but it is up from the .9% mark in June (which was revised lower to .4%). Rates are sure getting better. Our 4.875% rate today has a substantial rebate of (.369) and our 4.75% on the 30 year conforming product has a small cost of only .279! Nice! In case you’re wondering . . . 4.625 is still a substantial cost of 1.392 . . . and 4.5% will cost you 1.78 . . . so these 2 magical note rates are still a ways off.
I will be in the office all day today. I would suppose today would be a good day to lock, since we did kind of hit a plateau in the stock market. Yet, with the unemployment report coming out Friday, and the spook we rec’d from the ADP this morning . . . we could certainly see more selling in equities. The week after Labor Day has traditionally been an excellent week for rates. If you do want to lock today, email me before faxing over your rate lock, and I’ll get your loan locked for you. Have a terrific Humpday!
This morning’s ADP Employment Change Report came in worse than expected. Analysts were looking for job losses of 250K, and the number was considerably higher – 298,000 private sector job losses in August. Analysts are now scrambling to adjust their expectations for Friday’s official unemployment report from the Labor Dept. If there is a bright spot in this report, it would be that 360K (a revised number) jobs were lost in July, so the 298K is quite an improvement. Worker productivity is up, which is to expected. If employers are laying off workers, and not hiring . . . then they’re probably getting more work out of those employees that are left. Employees are working harder and longer hours so they aren’t the next casualty. That makes sense, eh?
Factory orders for July came in lower than expected, but still garnered an increase of 1.3%. Analysts were expecting 2.2%, but it is up from the .9% mark in June (which was revised lower to .4%). Rates are sure getting better. Our 4.875% rate today has a substantial rebate of (.369) and our 4.75% on the 30 year conforming product has a small cost of only .279! Nice! In case you’re wondering . . . 4.625 is still a substantial cost of 1.392 . . . and 4.5% will cost you 1.78 . . . so these 2 magical note rates are still a ways off.
I will be in the office all day today. I would suppose today would be a good day to lock, since we did kind of hit a plateau in the stock market. Yet, with the unemployment report coming out Friday, and the spook we rec’d from the ADP this morning . . . we could certainly see more selling in equities. The week after Labor Day has traditionally been an excellent week for rates. If you do want to lock today, email me before faxing over your rate lock, and I’ll get your loan locked for you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Update #2/ Week of August 31, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! We talked yesterday about the sell off that started in Asia Monday morning which carried over to us, and then back around the globe . . . we continue to drop like a Pachinko game. Even though the Shanghai market was able to bounce back 1.1% after losing 7% the day before, European markets were down early today between 1 - 2%. Like it or not, we’re part of a global economy now and markets around the world do have an ever increasing affect on our markets. All three of the major equity indices are down nearly 2% right out of the gate. September, historically, is not a good month for stock markets, and our markets are poised for a pull back anyway after having risen 14% in 10 weeks.
As expected, this is having a beneficial influence on rates. Our 30 year fixed is slightly better today than yesterday, but take a look at the 4.75% note offering – just a little more the .500 cost now. Nice! There were three economic reports this morning. Interesting that two of the three were positive for the economy, but the bulls just can’t seem to stop the selling. The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 52.9, beating expectations and up from 48.9 in July. Construction spending was down .2% from the month previous, slightly worse than the flat line analysts were expecting. Pending home sales for July were up 3.2% -- besting experts’ anticipated number of a 1.5% rise.
Today’s sell off is long overdue, and we hope this continues for a few weeks. If you need me, call me or email me here at the office. I’ll be here all day, up until 3:30 when I need to be at the eye doctor. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know your lock is coming over the fax. Have a terrific Tuesday!
As expected, this is having a beneficial influence on rates. Our 30 year fixed is slightly better today than yesterday, but take a look at the 4.75% note offering – just a little more the .500 cost now. Nice! There were three economic reports this morning. Interesting that two of the three were positive for the economy, but the bulls just can’t seem to stop the selling. The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 52.9, beating expectations and up from 48.9 in July. Construction spending was down .2% from the month previous, slightly worse than the flat line analysts were expecting. Pending home sales for July were up 3.2% -- besting experts’ anticipated number of a 1.5% rise.
Today’s sell off is long overdue, and we hope this continues for a few weeks. If you need me, call me or email me here at the office. I’ll be here all day, up until 3:30 when I need to be at the eye doctor. If you want to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know your lock is coming over the fax. Have a terrific Tuesday!
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