Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Boy, have we seen some volatility lately, as expected. The trend of the stock market seems to be downward, but the preliminary GDP reading yesterday gave the bulls reason to cheer and rally yesterday. By the end of the day, though, it seemed a little overdone. Newton told us that for every action there must be an equal and opposite reaction. Yesterday was the reaction from the day previous, and wow . . . today is the reaction from yesterday’s rally! The stock market is giving back almost everything it gained yesterday, and better yet, the credit markets have more than made up their losses of the day previous.
There were a slew of economic reports this morning for traders to digest, but none of them seemed to be able to fuel a rally for equities. Personal income and spending were basically in line with expectations – no surprises there. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in better than expected at a reading of 54.2, when analysts were looking for a number of 49. That’s good, but has no impact on the falling market today. The final reading of the Univ. of Michigan’s Sentiment Index was slightly better than anticipated, but again, nothing to prop the market.
Rates are better than yesterday’s, of course, but only slightly. We haven’t really seen the big swing in mortgage note offerings as investors played it safe when credit markets were improving early this week. Also, this is a Friday, so investors are rarely aggressive with rates, and there is little reaction from the last couple days of equaling moves in the markets. If the stock market can’t stem the losses, money will keep flowing to the credit markets and we may see some improved pricing. More than likely, investors will wait until Monday to get aggressive if the opportunity is still available.
Well, it is a beautiful Autumn day outside! And last day of the month . . . one would think this would be a good day to take the day off. So, I think I will. I will out all day on a previously scheduled day off. You can contact me on my cell phone if I can help you, but I won’t be in the office until Monday a.m. Have a terrific Friday, and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Friday, October 30, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Update #3/ Week of October 26, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Stocks are struggling once again this morning following a global sell off that took place last night. All markets around the globe were off last night and this morning, except Sydney Australia (gotta hand it to those Aussies). Most international markets were off over 1%. It’s our turn again and the 50+ point loss on the Dow isn’t as noticeable as the nearly 40 point loss on the NASDAQ. This represents an almost 2% drop for the “tech-heavy” NASDAQ after a 1.2% drop yesterday and a .6% drop on Monday. Not huge numbers, but the NASDAQ in particular is off almost 5% from it’s high on 10/19 of 2,176. If today turns out to be a down day for this index, it will be the 6th out of the last 7 trading days that have been losers.
As equity markets trend downward, credit markets are finally reaping some of the benefits. We had an exceptional day yesterday in bond land and the rally continues this morning. We have a ways to go to make up the losses from the last couple weeks, but we seem to be well on our way. Many “experts” in the market place are looking for at least a 10% drop in the stock markets, and we’re not quite at 5% yet. Yesterday’s bond auction of 2-year T’s went well, and it was a big one too -- $44B! Today’s 5-year T’s auction results will be announced at 10:00 . . . in 10 mins.
Bullish traders tried to use the durable goods orders report early on to help rebound the market. Durable goods orders for September increased 1.0% -- in line with expectations. Augusts’ orders were revised downward, though, to a drop of 2.6%. So this month’s number ended up being a nice little pop for that industry. The market took a real turn when New Home Sales for September report was released which show a drop of 38K from it’s annualized pace of 440K units last posted in August. This was a bit of a surprise since the existing home sales numbers were so good earlier and much of the credit was being given to the soon to expire tax credit. Somehow this tax credit didn’t provide as much booster fuel for new home sales as hoped.
Good news is, pricing is about .250 to .375 better in fee than yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have terrific Humpday!
As equity markets trend downward, credit markets are finally reaping some of the benefits. We had an exceptional day yesterday in bond land and the rally continues this morning. We have a ways to go to make up the losses from the last couple weeks, but we seem to be well on our way. Many “experts” in the market place are looking for at least a 10% drop in the stock markets, and we’re not quite at 5% yet. Yesterday’s bond auction of 2-year T’s went well, and it was a big one too -- $44B! Today’s 5-year T’s auction results will be announced at 10:00 . . . in 10 mins.
Bullish traders tried to use the durable goods orders report early on to help rebound the market. Durable goods orders for September increased 1.0% -- in line with expectations. Augusts’ orders were revised downward, though, to a drop of 2.6%. So this month’s number ended up being a nice little pop for that industry. The market took a real turn when New Home Sales for September report was released which show a drop of 38K from it’s annualized pace of 440K units last posted in August. This was a bit of a surprise since the existing home sales numbers were so good earlier and much of the credit was being given to the soon to expire tax credit. Somehow this tax credit didn’t provide as much booster fuel for new home sales as hoped.
Good news is, pricing is about .250 to .375 better in fee than yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have terrific Humpday!
Friday, October 23, 2009
Final Update/ Week of October 19, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! We’ve become accustomed of late to seeing the stock market drop 1%, only to rebound the next day (or by the end of the day) and make up it’s losses. Bulls just don’t want to let this market correct the 5-10% so many analysts are predicting. Yesterday was a recovery of the day before, today a response to yesterday’s over recovery. Today stocks fell out of bed early this morning, and are struggling to get to their feet in the last hour or so. Credit markets fell out of the other side of the bed and are struggling just the same. Fortunately, mortgage rates are flat.
Amazon and Netflix both reported earnings that are creating a lot of excitement on the trading floor today. These companies are benefitting, as we discussed yesterday, from the fact that fewer consumers are going out on the town and are staying home to read a book or watch a good movie. Amazon is setting a 10 year high today on it’s stock price. However, Microsoft, Honeywell, Whirlpool and a slew of other companies are reporting good earnings reports too, widely expected per our conversations recently. Companies are much leaner and have propensity for profit. Those that produced 10,000 units of whatever product with 1000 workers a couple years ago, now are producing 5,000 units with 300 workers. The numbers just make sense and shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
The only economic report of note is September Existing Home sales data which came in at an annualized rate of 5.57M – better than the 5.35M anticipated. It’s sure hard for good news in housing data to get much traction now days with all the bad news everywhere. Although, we did get some good news from one of our investors who lifted the declining markets LTV reduction for our region of the country on it’s Jumbo product. Any stabilization is good news.
Rates aren’t as bad as what they could have been seeing what’s going on in the treasury markets. We did get some nominal price improvements from some of our sources yesterday afternoon, but have given back those gains this morning. We’re pretty much flat on the fees for pricing on our conforming rates today from yesterday morning. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend. It’s supposed to be beautiful weather the next couple days!
Amazon and Netflix both reported earnings that are creating a lot of excitement on the trading floor today. These companies are benefitting, as we discussed yesterday, from the fact that fewer consumers are going out on the town and are staying home to read a book or watch a good movie. Amazon is setting a 10 year high today on it’s stock price. However, Microsoft, Honeywell, Whirlpool and a slew of other companies are reporting good earnings reports too, widely expected per our conversations recently. Companies are much leaner and have propensity for profit. Those that produced 10,000 units of whatever product with 1000 workers a couple years ago, now are producing 5,000 units with 300 workers. The numbers just make sense and shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
The only economic report of note is September Existing Home sales data which came in at an annualized rate of 5.57M – better than the 5.35M anticipated. It’s sure hard for good news in housing data to get much traction now days with all the bad news everywhere. Although, we did get some good news from one of our investors who lifted the declining markets LTV reduction for our region of the country on it’s Jumbo product. Any stabilization is good news.
Rates aren’t as bad as what they could have been seeing what’s going on in the treasury markets. We did get some nominal price improvements from some of our sources yesterday afternoon, but have given back those gains this morning. We’re pretty much flat on the fees for pricing on our conforming rates today from yesterday morning. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend. It’s supposed to be beautiful weather the next couple days!
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Update #4/ Week of October 19, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! The stock market is relatively flat this morning. The Dow, which we typically quote, is being influenced by a few large players that work very well into the formula for the increase it is enjoying this morning. The other more broad based indices are flat after some aggressive selling in the last hour of trading yesterday. Lately we’ve been back to the last hour of trading wild swings that we saw earlier this year and last year. Credit markets are pretty much flat, too, just slightly to the negative side. Our pricing is less than ½ of an 1/8 worse in fee on our conforming 30 year fixed product.
The big earnings reports this morning that are having such a nice influence on the Dow comes from McDonald’s, AT&T, 3M and Travelers. McDonald’s reported a rise in sales globally and in the US. This should be no surprise as this is what economists call an “inferior good.” When money is tight, inferior goods prosper as those that would normally like to go out to the steak house can’t afford it. AT&T is benefitting from it’s partnership with Apple and it’s iPhones – 3.2 million new contracts for them this last quarter with the iPhone. These positive reports have to be compared to not so profitable reports from the likes of Amgen, eBay and Merck. Although these companies beat the street with their earnings, their outlook going forward is cautious.
The economic news releases this morning flash a mixed signal for traders, too. The Leading Economic Indicators report came out this morning with a rise in it’s index for the 6th straight month. It’s rise of 1.0% bested analysts’ expectations of .8% -- that’s good. We’re all ready for these indicators to start blossoming into real growth. Home prices fell .3% in August month-over-month, the first drop in 3 months. Analysts were expecting another increase of .3%. Initial jobless claims report was the real culprit for weakness in trading this morning as it showed an increase of those claiming jobless benefits for the first time. Experts were anticipating a number of 515K, but the actual number was 531K. Continuing claims stayed below 6M, although the week previous was revised to just over the 6M mark. Unemployment doesn’t seem to be dissipating.
With another day of flat rates, we’re going to keep ploughing through the files that we have here in process. We welcome a little break in new locks, just not too long of a break, please. The stock market continues to confound many as to it’s ability to hold on to gains over the last several months. We expect this strength to wane in the weeks to come. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Thursday!
The big earnings reports this morning that are having such a nice influence on the Dow comes from McDonald’s, AT&T, 3M and Travelers. McDonald’s reported a rise in sales globally and in the US. This should be no surprise as this is what economists call an “inferior good.” When money is tight, inferior goods prosper as those that would normally like to go out to the steak house can’t afford it. AT&T is benefitting from it’s partnership with Apple and it’s iPhones – 3.2 million new contracts for them this last quarter with the iPhone. These positive reports have to be compared to not so profitable reports from the likes of Amgen, eBay and Merck. Although these companies beat the street with their earnings, their outlook going forward is cautious.
The economic news releases this morning flash a mixed signal for traders, too. The Leading Economic Indicators report came out this morning with a rise in it’s index for the 6th straight month. It’s rise of 1.0% bested analysts’ expectations of .8% -- that’s good. We’re all ready for these indicators to start blossoming into real growth. Home prices fell .3% in August month-over-month, the first drop in 3 months. Analysts were expecting another increase of .3%. Initial jobless claims report was the real culprit for weakness in trading this morning as it showed an increase of those claiming jobless benefits for the first time. Experts were anticipating a number of 515K, but the actual number was 531K. Continuing claims stayed below 6M, although the week previous was revised to just over the 6M mark. Unemployment doesn’t seem to be dissipating.
With another day of flat rates, we’re going to keep ploughing through the files that we have here in process. We welcome a little break in new locks, just not too long of a break, please. The stock market continues to confound many as to it’s ability to hold on to gains over the last several months. We expect this strength to wane in the weeks to come. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Thursday!
Friday, October 16, 2009
Final Update/ Week of October 12, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Finally we get a little relief in credit markets this morning. The stock market has had an impressive week of gains highlighted by Wednesday’s run up on the Dow of 144 points. Yesterday the bulls were able to hold on to their gains, but today, the task seems to be too great. Equity markets have been bolstered for months now by the large amount of cash traders have to meet every dip. It appears such is the case today. When we hit 9950 on the Dow, there was a definite floor and the bears have had a hard time breaking through that barrier.
For us, credit markets are making up some of the losses we incurred this week, so pricing is slightly better than yesterday. But . . . this is a Friday and investors are typically not aggressive on Fridays, so pricing is pretty flat. Traders have some economic news to digest this morning along with lots of earnings reports. September’s capacity utilization rose to 70.5%, better than the 69.8% anticipated. Industrial production rose .7%, better than the .2% expected. This report has little affect on our world, but may have something to do with stocks stopping their slide.
What helped to perpetuate the slide in the first place was Michigan’s October Consumer Sentiment Survey which disappointed the markets by coming in at 69.4, much lower than the anticipated 73.3. Go figure . . . the stock market has done so well, and 401(k)’s are recovering all over the country and consumer sentiment drops. Crazy. Why do we even bother with these consumer sentiment and confidence reports any way?
Earnings reports from Bank of America and GE are the catalysts that started the plunge this morning (and maybe a little profit taking from the recent run up). General Electric actually beat the street, but comments about it’s Capital division (mortgage) and overall quality of the report caused disappointment.
Maybe it’s all a good excuse for investors and fund managers to shuffle their portfolios and take a little money off the table. As far as pricing goes, we basically stopped the bleeding from earlier this week with today’s pricing. Our conforming prices are about ½ of 1/8 better than yesterday . . . at least they’re not worse. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
For us, credit markets are making up some of the losses we incurred this week, so pricing is slightly better than yesterday. But . . . this is a Friday and investors are typically not aggressive on Fridays, so pricing is pretty flat. Traders have some economic news to digest this morning along with lots of earnings reports. September’s capacity utilization rose to 70.5%, better than the 69.8% anticipated. Industrial production rose .7%, better than the .2% expected. This report has little affect on our world, but may have something to do with stocks stopping their slide.
What helped to perpetuate the slide in the first place was Michigan’s October Consumer Sentiment Survey which disappointed the markets by coming in at 69.4, much lower than the anticipated 73.3. Go figure . . . the stock market has done so well, and 401(k)’s are recovering all over the country and consumer sentiment drops. Crazy. Why do we even bother with these consumer sentiment and confidence reports any way?
Earnings reports from Bank of America and GE are the catalysts that started the plunge this morning (and maybe a little profit taking from the recent run up). General Electric actually beat the street, but comments about it’s Capital division (mortgage) and overall quality of the report caused disappointment.
Maybe it’s all a good excuse for investors and fund managers to shuffle their portfolios and take a little money off the table. As far as pricing goes, we basically stopped the bleeding from earlier this week with today’s pricing. Our conforming prices are about ½ of 1/8 better than yesterday . . . at least they’re not worse. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Friday, October 9, 2009
Final Update/ Week of October 5, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Rates are changing a bit…the ongoing battle between equities and mortgage backed securities continues!
The stock market is in positive territory again today . . . a stellar week for equities. The very happily surprising thing that occurred this week is that rates actually got better as the stock market made gains. We have been very lucky of late. Today is the Friday before a 3-day weekend, and credit markets typically run for cover. Stocks started their upward movement this morning and credit markets have just slid all morning. Rates are delayed late due to the fact that several of our sources have repriced already, and I wanted you to get the most updated rates. I’ll forward them as soon as I get them.
Ben Bernanke started things off last night when he made comments after the closing bell that the Fed will have to keep rates low for an extended period of time, but at some time in the future, they’ll have to tighten monetary policy (raise rates). This should have come as no surprise, but his comments have bolstered the dollar, caused commodities to drop and have put added pressure on the bond market today.
As I mentioned, today is the Friday before a 3 day weekend. We will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day, and will be back in the office on Tuesday ready to go. Credit markets should recover a bit next week, too
I’ll be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing long weekend!
The stock market is in positive territory again today . . . a stellar week for equities. The very happily surprising thing that occurred this week is that rates actually got better as the stock market made gains. We have been very lucky of late. Today is the Friday before a 3-day weekend, and credit markets typically run for cover. Stocks started their upward movement this morning and credit markets have just slid all morning. Rates are delayed late due to the fact that several of our sources have repriced already, and I wanted you to get the most updated rates. I’ll forward them as soon as I get them.
Ben Bernanke started things off last night when he made comments after the closing bell that the Fed will have to keep rates low for an extended period of time, but at some time in the future, they’ll have to tighten monetary policy (raise rates). This should have come as no surprise, but his comments have bolstered the dollar, caused commodities to drop and have put added pressure on the bond market today.
As I mentioned, today is the Friday before a 3 day weekend. We will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day, and will be back in the office on Tuesday ready to go. Credit markets should recover a bit next week, too
I’ll be in the office all day today . . . call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing long weekend!
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Update #3/ Week of October 5, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Today is quite a volatile day on Wall Street with another void in economic news releases. The upwardly mobile bulls have taken advantage of light news and light volume so far this week to eek out some gains and make up the losses from last week. It appears that they are going to have a tough time continuing their rally today. Meanwhile, credit markets are improving and we’ve made up some of the losses in pricing that we experienced earlier this week, too. So what could be better? Stock market gets some gains, and we get better pricing – fine.
The weak dollar has rebounded a bit this morning, putting pressure on stocks. Gold prices are poised to set a new record price again today. Oil inventories are down a bit, but gas inventories are up more than expected. As we mentioned yesterday, earnings season officially kicks off tonight, so the next few weeks are going to be wild. Companies are going to be putting the shine on as they deliver their earnings. Most companies are expected to have positive earnings reports, but those in the know realize that this is mostly due to cut backs and lay offs, not necessarily increased revenue.
Credit markets have already experienced the gains we had forecasted, and don’t expect rates to get significantly better from here. This is a great time to lock, and we are getting really busy again…thank Goodness! J
I will be in office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Humpday!
The weak dollar has rebounded a bit this morning, putting pressure on stocks. Gold prices are poised to set a new record price again today. Oil inventories are down a bit, but gas inventories are up more than expected. As we mentioned yesterday, earnings season officially kicks off tonight, so the next few weeks are going to be wild. Companies are going to be putting the shine on as they deliver their earnings. Most companies are expected to have positive earnings reports, but those in the know realize that this is mostly due to cut backs and lay offs, not necessarily increased revenue.
Credit markets have already experienced the gains we had forecasted, and don’t expect rates to get significantly better from here. This is a great time to lock, and we are getting really busy again…thank Goodness! J
I will be in office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you out in any way. Have a terrific Humpday!
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