Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! As Templeton would say, we have “A Veritable Smorgasbord” of economic news this morning with apparently few traders on the floor to digest it all. Stock markets may have rallied excitedly if there were someone there to cheer the rally. Good thing for us because credit markets, though a bit lower, could have really suffered much indigestion this morning. Our rates are about .25 better in rebate than they were yesterday, mostly due to yesterday afternoon’s rally in credit markets.
Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report was bumped up a day due to the holiday. This morning we learned that 466K initial jobless claims occurred last week, which is way down from the previous week’s number of 505K (seasonally adjusted) and below expectations of 500K. Pretty exciting news, really. You’d expect this on a shortened week, like this week, but not a normal week like last week. This is the first drop below 500K in over 12 months! Continuing claims dropped nearly 20K, too at 5.42M, below expectations of 5.57M.
In other positive news this morning in regards to economic recovery, personal income for October increased .2% -- besting the .1% anticipated. Personal spending was up .7% in October – besting the .5% anticipated. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased .2% in October, better than the .1% expected. Just a barrage of good news this morning . . . and normally you’d see the stock market taking off like a rocket – but it continues. New home sales figures for October showed an increase of 6.2% from Sept. to an annualized rate of 430K – topping expectations of 404K.
Oil prices were down early in trading, but once the inventory report came out with a rise in inventories, prices moved higher. The dollar is weak again today and gold is setting new highs . . . again. The results of a Treasury auction of 7-year T notes will be released in ½ hour or so. That may have a positive affect on credit markets.
If you want to lock a loan this morning . . . hurry. My pricing desk will be closing down around 1 PM. There will be no rate sheets on Friday, although we will be open, we will be running on a skeleton staff. Have a terrific Wednesday and a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family. I’ll be coming to you next on Monday the 30th.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
Update #1/ Week of November 16, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday. It’s Monday morning and the stock market is off to the races (like 8 of the last 10). The dollar is weak, commodities are on the rise, and companies are reporting good earnings for the 3rd quarter -- same ol’ same ol’. What’s also been “same ‘ol” is improved pricing with the credit markets continuing to make up ground in the midst of these latest trends.
October Advance Retail Sales Report is the main catalyst for the big rally on Wall Street. Total retail sales were up 1.4%, better than the .9% expected. Of course, this is after a drop of 2.9% in September, which is a downwardly revised number as of today. So, it’s hard to tell if we are really any better off now than we were a couple months ago, don’t you think? Statistics can be used many times to skew numbers and news in the direction in which you want to present – and government agencies are masters at this trick. The Empire Man. Survey for November came is below expectations, but who cares, we need a stock market rally, and it is Monday.
We rec’d some encouraging news earlier today out of Asia in regards to their economies slowly making progress toward coming out of recession. Also, business inventory data for September only decreased .4%, not as bad as the .7% decrease analysts were expecting.
I know I’m boring you with numbers now . . . all you care about is the good rates that lenders are offering today. Call me here at the office for off sheet pricing, I have it here for you. I’ll be available all day for your locking pleasure. Email me if you can’t catch me by phone to be sure I get to you and help you get your loan locked or help you with a loan scenario. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
October Advance Retail Sales Report is the main catalyst for the big rally on Wall Street. Total retail sales were up 1.4%, better than the .9% expected. Of course, this is after a drop of 2.9% in September, which is a downwardly revised number as of today. So, it’s hard to tell if we are really any better off now than we were a couple months ago, don’t you think? Statistics can be used many times to skew numbers and news in the direction in which you want to present – and government agencies are masters at this trick. The Empire Man. Survey for November came is below expectations, but who cares, we need a stock market rally, and it is Monday.
We rec’d some encouraging news earlier today out of Asia in regards to their economies slowly making progress toward coming out of recession. Also, business inventory data for September only decreased .4%, not as bad as the .7% decrease analysts were expecting.
I know I’m boring you with numbers now . . . all you care about is the good rates that lenders are offering today. Call me here at the office for off sheet pricing, I have it here for you. I’ll be available all day for your locking pleasure. Email me if you can’t catch me by phone to be sure I get to you and help you get your loan locked or help you with a loan scenario. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Update #2/ Week of November 9, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! After a bull run yesterday on the stock market, traders are dogpaddling like mad to keep their nose above the water line. This morning we’ve been up and down all over the unchanged mark, but neither the bulls or the bears can seem to make any headway -- credit markets are flat as well. Credit markets were surprisingly flat yesterday as equity markets posted some nice gains. .
It’s not typically that way. Usually we can enjoy a refi boon when the stock market is crashing, and when we’re slow with higher rates, we’re often benefitting from a rising equity market for our investments. This phenomenon is one of the great things we all enjoy about being in the industry (those of us that are left). There is an auction of $25B in 10-year T notes this morning, the results of which could have an impact on pricing.
There are no economic news releases today of note. The few minor earnings reports have been mixed, so there have been no fuel for the markets to run. A breather may be in order again for today. The NAR reported this morning that home sales are up 6% nation wide and the average (median) home price nationally is down 11% from Q3 of last year.
San Francisco Fed Chief Yellon yesterday told us that the economic recovery will be slow due to unemployment and lack of consumer’s being able to purchase goods. Wow . . . what a news flash. We used to think our recovery would be a “V” shape, then economists moved to a “U” shaped recovery earlier this year. Most recently we heard talk of a recovery that would be more like a “W”, and yesterday Yellon described the future recover now as a “tilted ‘L’.” What letter is next? I feel like we’re on Sesame Street! “This economic recovery is brought to you by the letters, V, U, W and L.” Anyway . . .
I will be in the office all day today. We have a monthly mortgage sales dept meeting at 2, so I will be unavailable for an hour or so at that time. Have a terrific Tuesday!
It’s not typically that way. Usually we can enjoy a refi boon when the stock market is crashing, and when we’re slow with higher rates, we’re often benefitting from a rising equity market for our investments. This phenomenon is one of the great things we all enjoy about being in the industry (those of us that are left). There is an auction of $25B in 10-year T notes this morning, the results of which could have an impact on pricing.
There are no economic news releases today of note. The few minor earnings reports have been mixed, so there have been no fuel for the markets to run. A breather may be in order again for today. The NAR reported this morning that home sales are up 6% nation wide and the average (median) home price nationally is down 11% from Q3 of last year.
San Francisco Fed Chief Yellon yesterday told us that the economic recovery will be slow due to unemployment and lack of consumer’s being able to purchase goods. Wow . . . what a news flash. We used to think our recovery would be a “V” shape, then economists moved to a “U” shaped recovery earlier this year. Most recently we heard talk of a recovery that would be more like a “W”, and yesterday Yellon described the future recover now as a “tilted ‘L’.” What letter is next? I feel like we’re on Sesame Street! “This economic recovery is brought to you by the letters, V, U, W and L.” Anyway . . .
I will be in the office all day today. We have a monthly mortgage sales dept meeting at 2, so I will be unavailable for an hour or so at that time. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Friday, November 6, 2009
Final Update/ Week of November2, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Yesterday was one of those crazy days when the stock market rallied like a run away fruit cart and credit markets held their own, too. Today, investors are actually giving us a little help with rates, as we are seeing rates improve by about .25 or so in fee on our 30 year conforming product. Fine – we’ll take both, thank you very much!
This morning’s unemployment report provided a mixed picture from the Labor Dept. The reaction on all markets is nil. The Labor Dept reported this morning that non farm payrolls dropped 190,000 jobs in October. That number is better than the 219K losses in September, but worse than the 175K losses analysts were expecting. The unemployment rate rose from 9.9% in September to 10.2% in October – a 26 year high. The previous over-10% unemployment rate was in the early 1980’s when I was in grade school. This is the 22nd straight month of job losses.
Markets are almost mesmerized by the report, as it appears they were expecting something a bit more flamboyant. Maybe they’re just wore out from all the excitement of the last 10 sessions or so and are taking a breather, and an early weekend. Credit markets are improving, though, and rates are good, so who’s complaining?
Call me on my cell phone if I can help you, but realize that I will not be in the office until Monday morning. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
This morning’s unemployment report provided a mixed picture from the Labor Dept. The reaction on all markets is nil. The Labor Dept reported this morning that non farm payrolls dropped 190,000 jobs in October. That number is better than the 219K losses in September, but worse than the 175K losses analysts were expecting. The unemployment rate rose from 9.9% in September to 10.2% in October – a 26 year high. The previous over-10% unemployment rate was in the early 1980’s when I was in grade school. This is the 22nd straight month of job losses.
Markets are almost mesmerized by the report, as it appears they were expecting something a bit more flamboyant. Maybe they’re just wore out from all the excitement of the last 10 sessions or so and are taking a breather, and an early weekend. Credit markets are improving, though, and rates are good, so who’s complaining?
Call me on my cell phone if I can help you, but realize that I will not be in the office until Monday morning. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Update #3/ Week of November 2, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! A decent report from the ADP gives some encouragement to those looking for the unemployment numbers to be released later this week. Bulls on Wall Street are taking advantage of the somewhat good news (basically, the “not bad news”) to sneak in some gains ahead of the FOMC announcement and attempt once again to recoup the losses from last Friday. The Dow shot up right out of the gate on news that the ADP reported job losses of 203,000 from the private sector in the month of October, slightly worse than the 198,000 job losses anticipated. Isn’t that great news!? A stock market rally is definitely in order, don’t you think?
The Dow shot up to about +140 points and then knocked it’s head on that invisible ceiling to which we have so often recently referred. Nobody seems to know where that ceiling is, but when we hit it, we sure have a hard time getting past it for the rest of the day. The ISM Services Index reported a reading of 50.6, not quite the 51.5 widely anticipated and down a bit from the 50.9 in September . . . another reason for the scratching of our cumulative heads watching the stock market rally. We do have a weaker dollar, and that always helps stocks, but this just seems unreasonable.
The credit markets are waiting anxiously for the FOMC statement release due in about and hour and ½ and that could move markets. Everybody expects the Feds to keep lending rates the same, but the statement is always what traders want to read to see where the Feds think we are heading in the future. Rates have actually done pretty well this week, considering all the hoopla. Rates, after losing a little ground yesterday, are an .125 or less in rebate worse this morning. Not too bad. We’ll wait and see how things look in a couple hours.
I will be here all day today to help you out in way I can . . . call me here or better yet email me. Have a terrific Humpday
The Dow shot up to about +140 points and then knocked it’s head on that invisible ceiling to which we have so often recently referred. Nobody seems to know where that ceiling is, but when we hit it, we sure have a hard time getting past it for the rest of the day. The ISM Services Index reported a reading of 50.6, not quite the 51.5 widely anticipated and down a bit from the 50.9 in September . . . another reason for the scratching of our cumulative heads watching the stock market rally. We do have a weaker dollar, and that always helps stocks, but this just seems unreasonable.
The credit markets are waiting anxiously for the FOMC statement release due in about and hour and ½ and that could move markets. Everybody expects the Feds to keep lending rates the same, but the statement is always what traders want to read to see where the Feds think we are heading in the future. Rates have actually done pretty well this week, considering all the hoopla. Rates, after losing a little ground yesterday, are an .125 or less in rebate worse this morning. Not too bad. We’ll wait and see how things look in a couple hours.
I will be here all day today to help you out in way I can . . . call me here or better yet email me. Have a terrific Humpday
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