Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Tuesday!
Well, there’s not much to talk about, really. The market is as flat as the turtle sticker on the back window of my wife’s car. We have been hovering around the unchanged levels in equity and credit markets all morning. Volumes are low, as would be expected for this week, so don’t expect any major movements in either direction.
The S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index for October reported a 146.6 figure, which is pretty close to the 147 anticipated. The number from the month previous was 146.7. The Composite for the 20 major metropolitan cities in America for October dropped 7.3% from the same month last year, in line with the 7.2% forecasted by the experts. The September reading for this report showed a loss of 9.3% year-over-year, so that is a slight improvement. Obviously the market had little reaction to this report. Yet . . . we in the real estate and financial industry would sure love to see some “bottoming out” in 2010 in home prices (from my keyboard to His ears). That would sure help with all the foreclosures and begin to alleviate the restrictions that we have in our industry at this time.
The Conference Board released their official Consumer Confidence Index for December this morning with a reading of 52.9 – in line with expectations of 53. It is a slight improvement, though, from the month previous which was 50.6 . . . and up from the 20’s that we saw earlier this year. This report continues to have no affect on the market. Later today we will have the results from the 5 year Treasury auction. Hopefully a healthy appetite for these securities will help rates.
I will be in the office all day today, working my way through the applications we have for today and tomorrow. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you, and have a terrific Tuesday.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Friday, December 18, 2009
Final Update/ Week of December 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! Equity markets slipped significantly yesterday, especially late in the session. The Dow finished down 132 points, and credit markets improved all through the day. Equity markets are struggling to make up even a fraction of those losses today, and they are going to struggle as this is a quadruple witching day. Traders need to get out of their options and futures, and this is going to create a lot of action and a lot of volatility.
Credit markets are giving back a little of their gains this morning, but pricing is relative to the improvements some investors came out with yesterday afternoon. All in all, we’re about (.25) better in rebate from yesterday morning’s pricing . . . nice!
We talked yesterday about California’s unemployment, which was released today for the month of November. We saw a slight drop . . . the first one after 23 months of consistently rising unemployment numbers. We now sit at 12.3% unemployed for the state (although some pockets like Riverside are over 16%) . . . and the forecast we discussed yesterday said that we will hover around 12%, but probably not much higher. They also predicted that we will remain above 10% through 2012. YOIKES!
There are no economic news releases today. Have you seen the run in oil prices in the last several days? We were below $69 a barrel a few days ago, and now we hover around $75 . . . so much for cheaper gas for the holidays. I will be in the office until about 4:00 today . . . but any locking or relocking activity is going to have to happen early, and then we’ll all be in a conference call at 11:00 gearing up for the new GFE.
If I don’t speak to you today . . . have a terrific Friday and a very enjoyable and festive weekend!
Credit markets are giving back a little of their gains this morning, but pricing is relative to the improvements some investors came out with yesterday afternoon. All in all, we’re about (.25) better in rebate from yesterday morning’s pricing . . . nice!
We talked yesterday about California’s unemployment, which was released today for the month of November. We saw a slight drop . . . the first one after 23 months of consistently rising unemployment numbers. We now sit at 12.3% unemployed for the state (although some pockets like Riverside are over 16%) . . . and the forecast we discussed yesterday said that we will hover around 12%, but probably not much higher. They also predicted that we will remain above 10% through 2012. YOIKES!
There are no economic news releases today. Have you seen the run in oil prices in the last several days? We were below $69 a barrel a few days ago, and now we hover around $75 . . . so much for cheaper gas for the holidays. I will be in the office until about 4:00 today . . . but any locking or relocking activity is going to have to happen early, and then we’ll all be in a conference call at 11:00 gearing up for the new GFE.
If I don’t speak to you today . . . have a terrific Friday and a very enjoyable and festive weekend!
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Update #3/ Week of December 14, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Wednesday! The markets are generally flat again today . . . we were up 30 on the Dow on Monday, down 50 yesterday, up 30 today . . . no real direction, and we expect that to be the case for the rest of the year. Treasuries just in the last hour have moved well into positive territory. We all await the FOMC announcement due to be released in about an hour and ½ . . . no surprises anticipated here, but if credit markets continue to improve, we should be seeing some price improvements this afternoon. Our rebates today are only slightly better than those of yesterday’s rate sheet.
The markets received some good news this morning . . . and even more surprising, the economic news releases were in line with expectations! Imagine that . . . the experts finally got it right today. The first bit of economic news is the CPI for November which showed a rise of .4% month over month – in line with expectations. Remember yesterday we learned that the Producers have seen a spike in prices . . . but the months previous this was not the case. This is the reason that the Consumer Price Index is still tame. Let’s hope we don’t see a similar spike in CPI 4-6 months from now. That would be a real killer for the recovery, and something the Feds are very concerned about – it its their # 1 job.
Housing starts for November posted an annualized rate of 574K – in line with expectations (actually right on the money) and this is up from a dismal 527K reported in October. Building permits for November rose to 584,000 which topped expectations of 570K, and much better than the 551K posted in October. If you remember, October’s numbers were way off the previous months’ reports causing some alarm that housing was slowing even further. This month’s number has provided a lot of relief for those fears.
Again, we all wait to see if the FOMC announcement has any bearing on the market – more than likely it won’t, but should give some comfort to the credit markets. I expect we’ll get some improvement in pricing after the announcement. I will be in the office this morning… I will be available by cell phone after lunch, but if you want to catch me here at the office, catch me early. Have a terrific Humpday!
The markets received some good news this morning . . . and even more surprising, the economic news releases were in line with expectations! Imagine that . . . the experts finally got it right today. The first bit of economic news is the CPI for November which showed a rise of .4% month over month – in line with expectations. Remember yesterday we learned that the Producers have seen a spike in prices . . . but the months previous this was not the case. This is the reason that the Consumer Price Index is still tame. Let’s hope we don’t see a similar spike in CPI 4-6 months from now. That would be a real killer for the recovery, and something the Feds are very concerned about – it its their # 1 job.
Housing starts for November posted an annualized rate of 574K – in line with expectations (actually right on the money) and this is up from a dismal 527K reported in October. Building permits for November rose to 584,000 which topped expectations of 570K, and much better than the 551K posted in October. If you remember, October’s numbers were way off the previous months’ reports causing some alarm that housing was slowing even further. This month’s number has provided a lot of relief for those fears.
Again, we all wait to see if the FOMC announcement has any bearing on the market – more than likely it won’t, but should give some comfort to the credit markets. I expect we’ll get some improvement in pricing after the announcement. I will be in the office this morning… I will be available by cell phone after lunch, but if you want to catch me here at the office, catch me early. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Update #2/ week of December 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Well, we were looking for a lack luster week, and we have it in equity markets so far. Unfortunately, a surprise spike in PPI has hit the credit markets like a kick in the stomach. Our pricing is about (.500) worse in rebate from yesterday morning. Wells Fargo joins the group of banking giants to request the opportunity to pay back the TARP funds before the end of the year. All of these banks want to get out from under the thumb of the government and pay their executives big bonuses at the end of the year. This is why we’re seeing a mad rush to get all the TARP money paid back.
The PPI has been pretty tame in the last several months indicating that the prices to be passed along to the consumers will be tame also. The Producers Price Index spiked 1.8% in November far above the anticipated .8% increase month over month. This caught a lot of traders by surprise. Much of this, though is due to food and energy, ‘cause when you take those out of the mix, the rise is only .5% -- still stronger than the .2% expected. This is, of course, the Producers report of what they are paying now for materials, and implies that this increase in what they had to pay will be passed along to the consumer. This will cause inflation to rise, and inflation is a very bad thing for banks. This is why we have a sudden jolt in pricing today.
Otherwise, in other economic related news, New York’s Empire Manufacturing Index slowed to almost a crawl (if that) with a reading of 25.5 – a bit off from the 24.0 expected and the 23.51 posting in November. That’s quite a miss! But, they’re all the way on the other corner of the country, so who cares. Industrial production increased .8% besting the .5% anticipated. Capacity Utilization for November reported a 71.3%, pretty much in line with the 71.1% anticipated.
With kind of a mixed bag of reports this morning, the equity markets are pretty much flat, but as we mentioned at the top of the page . . . credit markets got hammered early. We’ll look for things to settle down in credit markets throughout the day, too, as they seem to already be doing. I’ll be in the office all day today available for your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Tuesday!
The PPI has been pretty tame in the last several months indicating that the prices to be passed along to the consumers will be tame also. The Producers Price Index spiked 1.8% in November far above the anticipated .8% increase month over month. This caught a lot of traders by surprise. Much of this, though is due to food and energy, ‘cause when you take those out of the mix, the rise is only .5% -- still stronger than the .2% expected. This is, of course, the Producers report of what they are paying now for materials, and implies that this increase in what they had to pay will be passed along to the consumer. This will cause inflation to rise, and inflation is a very bad thing for banks. This is why we have a sudden jolt in pricing today.
Otherwise, in other economic related news, New York’s Empire Manufacturing Index slowed to almost a crawl (if that) with a reading of 25.5 – a bit off from the 24.0 expected and the 23.51 posting in November. That’s quite a miss! But, they’re all the way on the other corner of the country, so who cares. Industrial production increased .8% besting the .5% anticipated. Capacity Utilization for November reported a 71.3%, pretty much in line with the 71.1% anticipated.
With kind of a mixed bag of reports this morning, the equity markets are pretty much flat, but as we mentioned at the top of the page . . . credit markets got hammered early. We’ll look for things to settle down in credit markets throughout the day, too, as they seem to already be doing. I’ll be in the office all day today available for your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, December 14, 2009
Update #1/ Week of December 14, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! We have a pretty quiet morning on Wall Street and in credit markets this morning. Of course, it’s Monday, so that means the markets have to be positive (I think we’re up to 13 of the last 15 now) even though last week we only eked out a paltry 1 point gain on the Dow. Credit markets are slightly better and our pricing is any where from (.125) to around a (.25) better in rebate from Friday’s pricing. I suspect the markets will drift along this week in and around the unchanged mark with credit markets improving slightly throughout the week, having been unreasonably pounded last week.
There are no major economic news releases this morning. The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled meeting today and will be announcing their final monetary decision of the year tomorrow at 11:15 a.m. The dollar is slightly weaker, and this is usually a cause for gains on the stock market. Crude oil per barrel dipped over night well below the $69 mark, but is currently hovering just under $70.
Citigroup has come up with a plan to issue $17B of common stock to raise money in order to pay back their TARP money. The world economy got some good news over the weekend when Abu Dhabi stepped up to loan $10B to Dubai’s corporate flagship, Dubai World. They are not completely out of the woods, of course, but global markets are breathing a bit of a sigh. Look for markets to remain lethargic today with a lack of market moving news.
I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Monday and a very productive and prosperous week!
There are no major economic news releases this morning. The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled meeting today and will be announcing their final monetary decision of the year tomorrow at 11:15 a.m. The dollar is slightly weaker, and this is usually a cause for gains on the stock market. Crude oil per barrel dipped over night well below the $69 mark, but is currently hovering just under $70.
Citigroup has come up with a plan to issue $17B of common stock to raise money in order to pay back their TARP money. The world economy got some good news over the weekend when Abu Dhabi stepped up to loan $10B to Dubai’s corporate flagship, Dubai World. They are not completely out of the woods, of course, but global markets are breathing a bit of a sigh. Look for markets to remain lethargic today with a lack of market moving news.
I will be in the office all day today if you need me. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Monday and a very productive and prosperous week!
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Update #4/ week of December 7, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Credit markets are taking a pounding this morning, but rebates are only about 15 to 30 bps worse than yesterday. The stock markets shot up right out of the gate, but appears to have hit an invisible ceiling and has been struggling for the past couple hours to maintain the rally. Mortgage secondary marketing decision makers have been cautious of late to chase the rates down, which is to our benefit when we have a spike in the wrong direction and pricing is only slightly worse. Again, it just appears equity traders are not going to allow a correction before the end of the year. A correction after the 1st of the new year, though, could mean rates continuing to stay down until the Spring. We’ll have to wait and see how all that plays out.
The economic news of the morning, as in every Thursday, is the initial jobless claims which rose to 474,000 for the week ending Dec. 5 – quite a bit higher than the 455K anticipated. The last couple weeks surrounding the holiday saw smaller numbers and was cause for an overly optimistic analysis about unemployment. We’re back to a normal week’s report now, and the news is more in line with the previous month’s reports. Continuing claims continue to fall though, which is good news. The latest figure came in at 5.16M -- far below the 5.45M expected.
Also, in other economic news, our trade deficit is benefitting from the latest move in the dollar and has shrunk to $32.9B in October from the $36.8B expected and below the revised $35.7B in September. Our goods are cheaper overseas and thus the exports are making up ground compared to imports. Bank of America was allowed to pay back the $45B in TARP money last night, and Citibank seeks to do the same next. This is another reason, I suppose, for optimistic mood on Wall Street.
As I mentioned, pricing is only slightly worse than yesterday’s, we should count ourselves fortunate. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
The economic news of the morning, as in every Thursday, is the initial jobless claims which rose to 474,000 for the week ending Dec. 5 – quite a bit higher than the 455K anticipated. The last couple weeks surrounding the holiday saw smaller numbers and was cause for an overly optimistic analysis about unemployment. We’re back to a normal week’s report now, and the news is more in line with the previous month’s reports. Continuing claims continue to fall though, which is good news. The latest figure came in at 5.16M -- far below the 5.45M expected.
Also, in other economic news, our trade deficit is benefitting from the latest move in the dollar and has shrunk to $32.9B in October from the $36.8B expected and below the revised $35.7B in September. Our goods are cheaper overseas and thus the exports are making up ground compared to imports. Bank of America was allowed to pay back the $45B in TARP money last night, and Citibank seeks to do the same next. This is another reason, I suppose, for optimistic mood on Wall Street.
As I mentioned, pricing is only slightly worse than yesterday’s, we should count ourselves fortunate. I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Update #3/ Week of December 7, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! As Templeton would say, we have “A Veritable Smorgasbord” of economic news this morning with apparently few traders on the floor to digest it all. Stock markets may have rallied excitedly if there were someone there to cheer the rally. Good thing for us because credit markets, though a bit lower, could have really suffered much indigestion this morning. Our rates are about .25 better in rebate than they were yesterday, mostly due to yesterday afternoon’s rally in credit markets.
Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report was bumped up a day due to the holiday. This morning we learned that 466K initial jobless claims occurred last week, which is way down from the previous week’s number of 505K (seasonally adjusted) and below expectations of 500K. Pretty exciting news, really. You’d expect this on a shortened week, like this week, but not a normal week like last week. This is the first drop below 500K in over 12 months! Continuing claims dropped nearly 20K, too at 5.42M, below expectations of 5.57M.
In other positive news this morning in regards to economic recovery, personal income for October increased .2% -- besting the .1% anticipated. Personal spending was up .7% in October – besting the .5% anticipated. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased .2% in October, better than the .1% expected. Just a barrage of good news this morning . . . and normally you’d see the stock market taking off like a rocket – but it continues. New home sales figures for October showed an increase of 6.2% from Sept. to an annualized rate of 430K – topping expectations of 404K.
Oil prices were down early in trading, but once the inventory report came out with a rise in inventories, prices moved higher. The dollar is weak again today and gold is setting new highs . . . again. The results of a Treasury auction of 7-year T notes will be released in ½ hour or so. That may have a positive affect on credit markets.
If you want to lock a loan this morning . . . hurry. My pricing desk will be closing down around 1 PM. There will be no rate sheets on Friday, although we will be open, we will be running on a skeleton staff. Have a terrific Wednesday and a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family. I’ll be coming to you next on Monday the 30th.
Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report was bumped up a day due to the holiday. This morning we learned that 466K initial jobless claims occurred last week, which is way down from the previous week’s number of 505K (seasonally adjusted) and below expectations of 500K. Pretty exciting news, really. You’d expect this on a shortened week, like this week, but not a normal week like last week. This is the first drop below 500K in over 12 months! Continuing claims dropped nearly 20K, too at 5.42M, below expectations of 5.57M.
In other positive news this morning in regards to economic recovery, personal income for October increased .2% -- besting the .1% anticipated. Personal spending was up .7% in October – besting the .5% anticipated. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased .2% in October, better than the .1% expected. Just a barrage of good news this morning . . . and normally you’d see the stock market taking off like a rocket – but it continues. New home sales figures for October showed an increase of 6.2% from Sept. to an annualized rate of 430K – topping expectations of 404K.
Oil prices were down early in trading, but once the inventory report came out with a rise in inventories, prices moved higher. The dollar is weak again today and gold is setting new highs . . . again. The results of a Treasury auction of 7-year T notes will be released in ½ hour or so. That may have a positive affect on credit markets.
If you want to lock a loan this morning . . . hurry. My pricing desk will be closing down around 1 PM. There will be no rate sheets on Friday, although we will be open, we will be running on a skeleton staff. Have a terrific Wednesday and a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family. I’ll be coming to you next on Monday the 30th.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Update #1/ Week of December 7, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Monday! We talked last week about how the credit markets really over reacted on Thursday and Friday in price due to no particular movement in the stock markets. The credit markets are making up some ground today and our pricing is about (.375) to (.500) better in fee making up some of the losses from late last week. I can remember last year in December being a good month to lock loans, and it appears it will be the same again this year. Several Treasury auctions will be taking place this week, and are potential market movers. Traders will be keeping a close eye on these auctions to see what kind demand is still out there for these securities. This will have an impact on our pricing later this week.
There are no major economic news releases this morning. Ben Bernanke spoke today to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. and market participants are looking for any comments that might signal intentions by the Feds to raise interest rates after the first of the year. Apparently, nothing so far. If he does hint in that direction, it will be painful for us as far as rates go, but there doesn’t seem to be much impetus for that action at this point. Citibank has joined B of A in wanting to pay back the TARP money lent to them last year. So far the gov’t hasn’t wanted to see this money paid back, fearing another dip in financial risk next year. The fact that these two banking giants are in a position to do so, though, is comforting to many.
Gold continues to drop as signs of an improving economy with Friday’s very surprising unemployment report goes to show. Oil prices are dropping, too, which will provide some relief at the pump for the holiday driving season.
Have a prosperous and profitable week!
There are no major economic news releases this morning. Ben Bernanke spoke today to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. and market participants are looking for any comments that might signal intentions by the Feds to raise interest rates after the first of the year. Apparently, nothing so far. If he does hint in that direction, it will be painful for us as far as rates go, but there doesn’t seem to be much impetus for that action at this point. Citibank has joined B of A in wanting to pay back the TARP money lent to them last year. So far the gov’t hasn’t wanted to see this money paid back, fearing another dip in financial risk next year. The fact that these two banking giants are in a position to do so, though, is comforting to many.
Gold continues to drop as signs of an improving economy with Friday’s very surprising unemployment report goes to show. Oil prices are dropping, too, which will provide some relief at the pump for the holiday driving season.
Have a prosperous and profitable week!
Friday, December 4, 2009
Final Update/ Week of November 30 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Friday! I woke up this morning and went right to the computer to await the results on the unemployment report. The run up in equities was nice to see, but for the past 7 months we’ve watched the equity markets post month over month gains with little affect on interest rates. In fact, the market has never been so high (all year) as it has in the last several weeks, and rates have been as low as they have been all year. Today that is not the case. Pretty disappointing if you have a loan right on the cusp of getting locked. As I drove to work I listened to the every-10-minute market update and monitored by radio the market dropping into negative territory. Credit markets are improving, too!
The official Unemployment Report from the Labor Dept this morning created some very happy momentum for equity markets. The Labor Dept reported that the unemployment figure for November actually dropped to 10.0% from the 10.2% posted for October. In October our revised figure showed a loss of 111,000 jobs off non farm payrolls. The total net job losses for November was a paltry 11,000 – about 1/10th of the 125K anticipated by the experts. This also flies in the face of the ADP report we just rec’d on Wednesday which told us that private companies laid off 169K workers in November. Crazy. Keep in mind that many retailers were ramping up their sales staff for the holidays and many of these jobs will be let go in January. Maybe this is the reason for the quick drop in stock prices after an impressive start.
Gold is plunging – almost $50 an ounce and the dollar is rallying. Unemployment is a big concern, as we all know, and it’s only good news for almost everyone interested in the financial stability of our country to see this problem dissipate. There’s already talk of the Fed’s raising interest rates, but I think they’ll wait for the Spring to see how we look on the job scene at that time. Remember, companies are not going to be quick about hiring back full time workers. They’re going to over work their present staff first, then hire temps . . . then hire full time workers. This whole cycle could take several if not many months to play out.
Rates are off once again from yesterday’s rate sheet by anywhere from (.500) to (.750) in rebate. Let’s enjoy the breather, I suspect rates will drop back down next week. The stock market truly seems to be out of steam, but don’t look for a correction before New Year’s Eve. I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
The official Unemployment Report from the Labor Dept this morning created some very happy momentum for equity markets. The Labor Dept reported that the unemployment figure for November actually dropped to 10.0% from the 10.2% posted for October. In October our revised figure showed a loss of 111,000 jobs off non farm payrolls. The total net job losses for November was a paltry 11,000 – about 1/10th of the 125K anticipated by the experts. This also flies in the face of the ADP report we just rec’d on Wednesday which told us that private companies laid off 169K workers in November. Crazy. Keep in mind that many retailers were ramping up their sales staff for the holidays and many of these jobs will be let go in January. Maybe this is the reason for the quick drop in stock prices after an impressive start.
Gold is plunging – almost $50 an ounce and the dollar is rallying. Unemployment is a big concern, as we all know, and it’s only good news for almost everyone interested in the financial stability of our country to see this problem dissipate. There’s already talk of the Fed’s raising interest rates, but I think they’ll wait for the Spring to see how we look on the job scene at that time. Remember, companies are not going to be quick about hiring back full time workers. They’re going to over work their present staff first, then hire temps . . . then hire full time workers. This whole cycle could take several if not many months to play out.
Rates are off once again from yesterday’s rate sheet by anywhere from (.500) to (.750) in rebate. Let’s enjoy the breather, I suspect rates will drop back down next week. The stock market truly seems to be out of steam, but don’t look for a correction before New Year’s Eve. I’ll be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Update #4/ Week of November 30, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! Equity markets are relatively flat this morning after some early choppiness. Traders and investors are excited about Bank of America wanting to pay back the $45B in TARP funds forced upon, excuse me, I mean LENT to them last year in an effort to rescue the banking industry. Seems Ken Lewis is wanting to retire after all this, and BofA is having a hard time attracting a viable leader with the restricted compensation it has to offer under the terms of the TARP loan. This is a positive sign for the economy, and the financial industry in particular.
Thursday is the day for initial jobless claims report from the previous week. The week ending November 28 saw 457K initial jobless claims, less than the 480K anticipated. The 4-week average moves down from 495,500 to 481,250 and continuing claims rise to 5.47M – besting the 5.40M expected. Revised productivity numbers for Q3 were scaled back a bit, but these reports have done little to move the markets in one direction or the other. The European Central Bank (their version of our Fed) voted to leave their benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.0% -- no surprise there.
The US dollar continues to drive the market – it was weaker overnight, but is gaining strength this morning. Prices on our mortgage rebates have backed up quite a bit. This will give us a chance to get the pig going through the python and be ready for the next wave of loans. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a pricing question or loan scenario. Have a terrific Thursday!
Thursday is the day for initial jobless claims report from the previous week. The week ending November 28 saw 457K initial jobless claims, less than the 480K anticipated. The 4-week average moves down from 495,500 to 481,250 and continuing claims rise to 5.47M – besting the 5.40M expected. Revised productivity numbers for Q3 were scaled back a bit, but these reports have done little to move the markets in one direction or the other. The European Central Bank (their version of our Fed) voted to leave their benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.0% -- no surprise there.
The US dollar continues to drive the market – it was weaker overnight, but is gaining strength this morning. Prices on our mortgage rebates have backed up quite a bit. This will give us a chance to get the pig going through the python and be ready for the next wave of loans. I will be in the office all day today. Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a pricing question or loan scenario. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Update #3/ Week of Novemeber 30, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Markets are generally flat this morning after a little choppiness early. Equity markets attempted to continue their rally from the last couple trading sessions but have settled back down now at the flat line – credit markets have too. Asian markets rallied through the night last night on a follow up from our rally, maybe, and posted solid gains. Possibly this is the reason for the early morning positive start, but news from the ADP Payroll Report pretty much threw a wet blanket on any rally for today.
The ADP Employment Change Report, a precursor to the official gov’t unemployment report of late, reported that private companies laid off 169,000 workers in November. This is a bit higher than the 150K anticipated, but it is better than the 203K job losses in October. Job cuts are still on the decline, but we’re no where near job creation yet. Even this far into 2009, companies are still laying off tens of thousands of workers every month. Friday’s report from the Labor Dept is expected to show a further rise in unemployment figures . . . this report today from ADP only solidifies that concern.
The dollar is gaining strength today, and gold is too. The price of gold has gone up almost every day for the last month of trading, an amazing run to say the least. This run up in gold is perceived by some to be a sign that investors expect the stock market to give back a major portion of their gains of 2009. We’ll have to see what happens after the first of the year. It doesn’t look like we’re going to see any major corrections by the end of the month. By the way, this is last month of the decade, too . . . and what a decade it’s been! An interesting note . . . in Jan of 2001, the Dow was at 10,887 . . . the Dow as of this writing sits at 10,422 – we’ve lost about 450 points in 10 years! Funny.
OK, rates are off from yesterday morning as we saw many investors reprice yesterday afternoon. We are about .500 worse in rebate from yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I think we all could use a little break, too, these past 2 days have been overwhelmingly busy to say the least.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if you have any pricing or loan scenario questions – an have a terrific Humpday!
The ADP Employment Change Report, a precursor to the official gov’t unemployment report of late, reported that private companies laid off 169,000 workers in November. This is a bit higher than the 150K anticipated, but it is better than the 203K job losses in October. Job cuts are still on the decline, but we’re no where near job creation yet. Even this far into 2009, companies are still laying off tens of thousands of workers every month. Friday’s report from the Labor Dept is expected to show a further rise in unemployment figures . . . this report today from ADP only solidifies that concern.
The dollar is gaining strength today, and gold is too. The price of gold has gone up almost every day for the last month of trading, an amazing run to say the least. This run up in gold is perceived by some to be a sign that investors expect the stock market to give back a major portion of their gains of 2009. We’ll have to see what happens after the first of the year. It doesn’t look like we’re going to see any major corrections by the end of the month. By the way, this is last month of the decade, too . . . and what a decade it’s been! An interesting note . . . in Jan of 2001, the Dow was at 10,887 . . . the Dow as of this writing sits at 10,422 – we’ve lost about 450 points in 10 years! Funny.
OK, rates are off from yesterday morning as we saw many investors reprice yesterday afternoon. We are about .500 worse in rebate from yesterday morning’s rate sheet. I think we all could use a little break, too, these past 2 days have been overwhelmingly busy to say the least.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if you have any pricing or loan scenario questions – an have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Update #2/ Week of November 29, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! With news coming out in the last 24 hours about Dubai’s troubles being addressed, fears are dissipating, Asian markets posted sizeable gains, and the US stock markets are back on the rise. Yesterday, equity markets posted another Monday gain, and today we’re off to the races again. The Dow, being up 125 points, covers almost to the point the losses from Friday’s sell off. Amazing thing to all of us, is the way rates have stayed where they are. Rates and rebates are almost exactly where we were yesterday morning at this time after 155 point run up on the Dow in the same amount of time. Fine . . . we like it this way!
The dollar is weaker this morning, which has of late, been cause for a stock market rally and reason for commodities, especially the shiny metals, to rise in price. In the economic news arena this morning, the ISM Manufacturing Index for November came in just below expectations, and construction spending was flat for October. Pending homes sales for October were up 3.7% over September’s reading which is quite a bit better than the 1.0% drop anticipated by the experts. This is 9 months in a row now of rising pending home sales.
We’ve talked about this stock market so many times, I’m beginning to sound like a broken record. The bulls on Wall Street just simply are not going to let this market correct, it appears, before the end of the year. November’s gains in the stock market were about 5.7% for the month. There’s no reason to believe traders are going to allow this market to drop before cashing in on their end of the year or quarterly bonuses. Maybe after the first of the year we’ll see the markets correct. However, pricing is as good as it has been at any time in the mortgage business (at least in our life times) so let’s keep selling these great rates!
I will be in the office all day today…Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. This looks like a good day to lock, too, so if you are planning to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know. Have a terrific Tuesday!
The dollar is weaker this morning, which has of late, been cause for a stock market rally and reason for commodities, especially the shiny metals, to rise in price. In the economic news arena this morning, the ISM Manufacturing Index for November came in just below expectations, and construction spending was flat for October. Pending homes sales for October were up 3.7% over September’s reading which is quite a bit better than the 1.0% drop anticipated by the experts. This is 9 months in a row now of rising pending home sales.
We’ve talked about this stock market so many times, I’m beginning to sound like a broken record. The bulls on Wall Street just simply are not going to let this market correct, it appears, before the end of the year. November’s gains in the stock market were about 5.7% for the month. There’s no reason to believe traders are going to allow this market to drop before cashing in on their end of the year or quarterly bonuses. Maybe after the first of the year we’ll see the markets correct. However, pricing is as good as it has been at any time in the mortgage business (at least in our life times) so let’s keep selling these great rates!
I will be in the office all day today…Please call me here or email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. This looks like a good day to lock, too, so if you are planning to lock a loan, be sure to email me and let me know. Have a terrific Tuesday!
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