Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Friday! Boy, what a busy day today is in financial markets. First of all from yesterday’s news page, Ben Bernanke is confirmed as the head of the Fed for another 4 year term. This is seen as a move to keep markets on the right track, and keep things calm. Ben Bernanke is viewed as a stand out in his own field especially as an expert in his studies on the Great Depression and how to deal with this recession. There were 30 Senators who apparently didn’t feel that way, but he’s confirmed and on board for another 4.
The market should be skyrocketing today with the very impressive GDP reading for the 4th quarter of 2009. Of course, this is based on an almost dead economy the quarters previous, but certainly the heart of the economy (the consumer) is beginning to beat once again. GDP for Q4 ’09 came in at a rise of 5.7%, besting the 4.7% anticipated by the experts. Much of the spending is a result of government stimulus, so may experts are leery that this level is sustainable, but wow, what a number! Last quarter’s number (Q3) showed a rise of 2.2% . . . this after 4 quarters of negative growth. There’s lots more to read about in this report and it’s worth the read. The graphic on the GDP for the last 5 quarters is truly amazing.
Good earnings reports from Microsoft and Honeywell should have propelled the stock market even higher, too. The Univ. of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a rise to 74.4 . . . higher than the 73.0 reading anticipated. So why isn’t the stock market sky rocketing? Well, I think traders realize that the GDP number, although stellar, is artificial in light of the fact that the gov’t had to put so much money into the economy to get that number. Obviously, we can’t keep doing that. Many financial pundits feel that the market was over sold in the first place and doesn’t really make sense for it to keep growing without a correction.
Credit markets remain flat again today. All week we’ve pretty much stayed within .25 to .375 in rebate with no major breakthroughs. . . . so we did see some improvement in our world in January.
I will be on the road all day today. Please call or email me if I can help you . . . and have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
Friday, January 29, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Update #2/ Week of January 25, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wet Thursday! Yesterday we joked around about Wall Street being the old man snoring during the rain storm and bumping his head. The Dow dropped yesterday over 200 points right out of the gate, but was able to slowly “get back up” through out the day and ended the session with only a 122 point loss. This morning he appears to be a little disoriented again as he fell out of bed to another 200 point drop and is having quite a struggle getting back on his feet. As of this writing, the Dow is off 212 points, and it appears the long awaited correction is finally happening.
When the market begins to fall like this, we’ve witnessed in recent years, there typically follows a ripple effect as the initial pebble hits the water then there are rings of reactions to the initial drop. The dynamic that’s true of the market most recently is the veritable plethora of day traders sitting at home with the ability to buy and sell stocks from their home computer. In the old days, an individual would have to call their stock broker who might calm them down a bit before selling. Today, when my grandpa for example, gets out of bed and sees another day of triple digit losses on the Dow, he’s likely to run to the computer and sell what he has. This causes continued fall in the stock market and others doing the same. We’ll see how this correction plays out, but that seemed to be the case in late 2008 and early 2009
Selling pressure, especially in the financial sector, is prevalent after President Obama indicated during a speech that there are proposals on the table to limit the size of banks. This is in an effort to not allow banks to get “too big to fail” and “hold the American people hostage” in forcing the average citizens to bail them out if they get in trouble.
Further selling pressure in the stock market could be a reaction to the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Jan 16. It seems 482,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week. That is not a surprise as we talked about this being the case once the holiday help was let go. Analysts, however, were looking for a number closer to 440K, after the week previous came in at 446K. Unemployment is that 800 pound gorilla STILL standing in the corner and hasn’t left the room.
Otherwise, Goldman Sachs’ positive earnings report is having little positive effect on the market. The Philly Fed Index came in much lower, at 15.2, than expected at 18.0 – way down from the 22.5 registered in December. However, LEI increased 1.1%, compared to the 1.0% registered last month. The leading economic indicators and consumer confidence all point toward a bright future someday, but for now, we appear to be stuck in the mud.
I will be in the office all day today. If the rain stops this afternoon, I may get out and make a few calls, but if you need me . . . call me here or email me. I hope you have a terrific Thursday!
When the market begins to fall like this, we’ve witnessed in recent years, there typically follows a ripple effect as the initial pebble hits the water then there are rings of reactions to the initial drop. The dynamic that’s true of the market most recently is the veritable plethora of day traders sitting at home with the ability to buy and sell stocks from their home computer. In the old days, an individual would have to call their stock broker who might calm them down a bit before selling. Today, when my grandpa for example, gets out of bed and sees another day of triple digit losses on the Dow, he’s likely to run to the computer and sell what he has. This causes continued fall in the stock market and others doing the same. We’ll see how this correction plays out, but that seemed to be the case in late 2008 and early 2009
Selling pressure, especially in the financial sector, is prevalent after President Obama indicated during a speech that there are proposals on the table to limit the size of banks. This is in an effort to not allow banks to get “too big to fail” and “hold the American people hostage” in forcing the average citizens to bail them out if they get in trouble.
Further selling pressure in the stock market could be a reaction to the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Jan 16. It seems 482,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week. That is not a surprise as we talked about this being the case once the holiday help was let go. Analysts, however, were looking for a number closer to 440K, after the week previous came in at 446K. Unemployment is that 800 pound gorilla STILL standing in the corner and hasn’t left the room.
Otherwise, Goldman Sachs’ positive earnings report is having little positive effect on the market. The Philly Fed Index came in much lower, at 15.2, than expected at 18.0 – way down from the 22.5 registered in December. However, LEI increased 1.1%, compared to the 1.0% registered last month. The leading economic indicators and consumer confidence all point toward a bright future someday, but for now, we appear to be stuck in the mud.
I will be in the office all day today. If the rain stops this afternoon, I may get out and make a few calls, but if you need me . . . call me here or email me. I hope you have a terrific Thursday!
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Update #4/ Week of January 18, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wet Thursday! Yesterday we joked around about Wall Street being the old man snoring during the rain storm and bumping his head. The Dow dropped yesterday over 200 points right out of the gate, but was able to slowly “get back up” through out the day and ended the session with only a 122 point loss. This morning he appears to be a little disoriented again as he fell out of bed to another 200 point drop and is having quite a struggle getting back on his feet. As of this writing, the Dow is off 212 points, and it appears the long awaited correction is finally happening.
When the market begins to fall like this, we’ve witnessed in recent years, there typically follows a ripple effect as the initial pebble hits the water then there are rings of reactions to the initial drop. The dynamic that’s true of the market most recently is the veritable plethora of day traders sitting at home with the ability to buy and sell stocks from their home computer. In the old days, an individual would have to call their stock broker who might calm them down a bit before selling. Today, when my grandpa for example, gets out of bed and sees another day of triple digit losses on the Dow, he’s likely to run to the computer and sell what he has. This causes continued fall in the stock market and others doing the same. We’ll see how this correction plays out, but that seemed to be the case in late 2008 and early 2009
Selling pressure, especially in the financial sector, is prevalent after President Obama indicated during a speech that there are proposals on the table to limit the size of banks. This is in an effort to not allow banks to get “too big to fail” and “hold the American people hostage” in forcing the average citizens to bail them out if they get in trouble.
Further selling pressure in the stock market could be a reaction to the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Jan 16. It seems 482,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week. That is not a surprise as we talked about this being the case once the holiday help was let go. Analysts, however, were looking for a number closer to 440K, after the week previous came in at 446K. Unemployment is that 800 pound gorilla STILL standing in the corner and hasn’t left the room.
Otherwise, Goldman Sachs’ positive earnings report is having little positive effect on the market. The Philly Fed Index came in much lower, at 15.2, than expected at 18.0 – way down from the 22.5 registered in December. However, LEI increased 1.1%, compared to the 1.0% registered last month. The leading economic indicators and consumer confidence all point toward a bright future someday, but for now, we appear to be stuck in the mud.
I will be in the office all day today. If the rain stops this afternoon, I may get out and make a few calls, but if you need me . . . call me here or email me. I hope you have a terrific Thursday!
Warmly,
When the market begins to fall like this, we’ve witnessed in recent years, there typically follows a ripple effect as the initial pebble hits the water then there are rings of reactions to the initial drop. The dynamic that’s true of the market most recently is the veritable plethora of day traders sitting at home with the ability to buy and sell stocks from their home computer. In the old days, an individual would have to call their stock broker who might calm them down a bit before selling. Today, when my grandpa for example, gets out of bed and sees another day of triple digit losses on the Dow, he’s likely to run to the computer and sell what he has. This causes continued fall in the stock market and others doing the same. We’ll see how this correction plays out, but that seemed to be the case in late 2008 and early 2009
Selling pressure, especially in the financial sector, is prevalent after President Obama indicated during a speech that there are proposals on the table to limit the size of banks. This is in an effort to not allow banks to get “too big to fail” and “hold the American people hostage” in forcing the average citizens to bail them out if they get in trouble.
Further selling pressure in the stock market could be a reaction to the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending Jan 16. It seems 482,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week. That is not a surprise as we talked about this being the case once the holiday help was let go. Analysts, however, were looking for a number closer to 440K, after the week previous came in at 446K. Unemployment is that 800 pound gorilla STILL standing in the corner and hasn’t left the room.
Otherwise, Goldman Sachs’ positive earnings report is having little positive effect on the market. The Philly Fed Index came in much lower, at 15.2, than expected at 18.0 – way down from the 22.5 registered in December. However, LEI increased 1.1%, compared to the 1.0% registered last month. The leading economic indicators and consumer confidence all point toward a bright future someday, but for now, we appear to be stuck in the mud.
I will be in the office all day today. If the rain stops this afternoon, I may get out and make a few calls, but if you need me . . . call me here or email me. I hope you have a terrific Thursday!
Warmly,
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Update #2/ Week of January 18, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! We have a theme today . . . it’s raining, it’s pouring . . . Wall Street got out of bed this morning, bumped its head and fell to the floor . . . there goes my analogy. The stock market, after hitting fresh 52-week highs yesterday, is dropping like a rock (or a rain drop if you prefer). The Dow is down almost 200 points, the NASDAQ’s off by over 40 points. We’ll have to remember the high from yesterday on the Dow of 10,725 . . . because that may be the high point for some time, I’m thinkin’. The credit markets are rallying today, but secondary marketing investors are slow to jump on board. Look for this trend to continue as rates are better again today . . . but we still have a ways to go.
Stock traders are responding to an announcement from China’s authorities who ordered their big banks to curb lending for the remainder of the month. This move is perceived to be a move toward a tightening of monetary policy in an effort to keep a lid on inflation and an overheating economic recovery. This tightening of monetary policy, interpreted in our country as the Fed raising interest rates, is not an option for us here in the US. The VERY fragile economic recovery (as some would call it) is not ready for an interest rate hike, and we are not really experiencing any inflationary fears at this time.
Even still, China’s Shanghai Composite (their Wall Street stock price measuring equivalent) dropped over 3% on the news, and the European bourses followed suit. As for our country’s economic news releases . . . the December PPI was up a mild .2% month over month. This follows a surprise 1.8% jump in November. Excluding food and energy, the Core Producer Price Index was flat. See what I’m saying about inflationary fears? Housing starts for December were down, coming in at an annualized rate of 557K, when analysts were anticipating 572K. Yet, building permits sky rocketed to 653K (annualized) in December from 589K in November. This figure bested expectations of 580K permits . . . a sign that builders are expecting sales to pick up toward the end of this year and into 2011.
Bank of America reported a $5 Billion loss for the 4th quarter of 2009 . . . nearly double it’s losses in the same quarter of 2008. Loan write offs are the culprit still, and with foreclosures on the rise, it seems like this will be the case for some time. These losses are in line with expectations, but give us a reality check as to just how bad things are still in the financial industry. How many banks could absorb a $5 BILLION losing quarter? Not many.
Oil prices, after making a sharp recovery yesterday, are lower today by 2.4% to $77.06 a barrel. Gold prices are falling . . . down by almost $30. I will be in the office all day today, staying dry – call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. If the rain isn’t too bad tomorrow, I may get out and go make some calls. I’ll let you know in the morning. Have a terrific Humpday!
Stock traders are responding to an announcement from China’s authorities who ordered their big banks to curb lending for the remainder of the month. This move is perceived to be a move toward a tightening of monetary policy in an effort to keep a lid on inflation and an overheating economic recovery. This tightening of monetary policy, interpreted in our country as the Fed raising interest rates, is not an option for us here in the US. The VERY fragile economic recovery (as some would call it) is not ready for an interest rate hike, and we are not really experiencing any inflationary fears at this time.
Even still, China’s Shanghai Composite (their Wall Street stock price measuring equivalent) dropped over 3% on the news, and the European bourses followed suit. As for our country’s economic news releases . . . the December PPI was up a mild .2% month over month. This follows a surprise 1.8% jump in November. Excluding food and energy, the Core Producer Price Index was flat. See what I’m saying about inflationary fears? Housing starts for December were down, coming in at an annualized rate of 557K, when analysts were anticipating 572K. Yet, building permits sky rocketed to 653K (annualized) in December from 589K in November. This figure bested expectations of 580K permits . . . a sign that builders are expecting sales to pick up toward the end of this year and into 2011.
Bank of America reported a $5 Billion loss for the 4th quarter of 2009 . . . nearly double it’s losses in the same quarter of 2008. Loan write offs are the culprit still, and with foreclosures on the rise, it seems like this will be the case for some time. These losses are in line with expectations, but give us a reality check as to just how bad things are still in the financial industry. How many banks could absorb a $5 BILLION losing quarter? Not many.
Oil prices, after making a sharp recovery yesterday, are lower today by 2.4% to $77.06 a barrel. Gold prices are falling . . . down by almost $30. I will be in the office all day today, staying dry – call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. If the rain isn’t too bad tomorrow, I may get out and go make some calls. I’ll let you know in the morning. Have a terrific Humpday!
Friday, January 15, 2010
Final Update/ week of January 11, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Friday! We’re finally getting the moves in the market that we have been looking for all year. Maybe it’s a reaction to the economic news of the last couple days, maybe it’s traders pulling their bets off the table ahead of a 3 day weekend . . . but equities are sharply down this morning and that is helping the credit markets. The credit markets are gaining steam this morning so far, and pricing is getting better by the hour.
Yesterday’s initial jobless claims report surprised some analysts as they were looking for a seasonally adjusted number of 436K, but the number came in at 444K, up 10K from the week previous. Unemployment and this very weak Labor market continues to be a problem and will be for some time. Small business owners surveyed last week said they don’t see improvement for the rest of the year . . . that is, they are not planning to hire new labor. However, continuing claims continues to fall . . . now down to 4.6M, down 211k from the week previous. This could be a result of some falling off the unemployment assistance rolls.
Yesterday we learned that retail sales were down .3% in December according to the Commerce Dept. Remember, the consumer accounts for 2/3’s of the GDP for our country. Excluding the usual culprit of autos, retail sales were still down .2% -- not good.
This morning we learn that CPI for December increased .1% month-over-month, not as bad as the .2% anticipated by the experts. Inflation is a big concern going forward and economists are very in tune with this report. Oil prices continue to fall, which is good news for all of us. Intel reported good earnings after the bell last night, and so did JPM Chase this morning. However, Chase went on to express concerns about it’s quarter-over-quarter loss provisions. We learned yesterday that foreclosures are still on the rise in our country, so even though banks are profitable, their future potential losses are still a grave concern.
I enjoyed catching up with many of you yesterday. I am in back in the office today and am available for your loan scenario or pricing questions. We will be closed on Monday. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing 3 day weekend!
Yesterday’s initial jobless claims report surprised some analysts as they were looking for a seasonally adjusted number of 436K, but the number came in at 444K, up 10K from the week previous. Unemployment and this very weak Labor market continues to be a problem and will be for some time. Small business owners surveyed last week said they don’t see improvement for the rest of the year . . . that is, they are not planning to hire new labor. However, continuing claims continues to fall . . . now down to 4.6M, down 211k from the week previous. This could be a result of some falling off the unemployment assistance rolls.
Yesterday we learned that retail sales were down .3% in December according to the Commerce Dept. Remember, the consumer accounts for 2/3’s of the GDP for our country. Excluding the usual culprit of autos, retail sales were still down .2% -- not good.
This morning we learn that CPI for December increased .1% month-over-month, not as bad as the .2% anticipated by the experts. Inflation is a big concern going forward and economists are very in tune with this report. Oil prices continue to fall, which is good news for all of us. Intel reported good earnings after the bell last night, and so did JPM Chase this morning. However, Chase went on to express concerns about it’s quarter-over-quarter loss provisions. We learned yesterday that foreclosures are still on the rise in our country, so even though banks are profitable, their future potential losses are still a grave concern.
I enjoyed catching up with many of you yesterday. I am in back in the office today and am available for your loan scenario or pricing questions. We will be closed on Monday. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing 3 day weekend!
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Update #2/ Week of January 11, 2009
Good Afternoon Everyone and Happy Tuesday! As we discussed yesterday, earnings season kicked off (unofficially) last night with Alcoa reporting earnings which missed expectations. Analysts were looking for a profit of $.06 a share and the actual number came in at $.01 a share. Good news is, they only lost about $275 Million this past quarter compared to 1.2 Billion in Q4 of 2008. Great news, eh? Well, traders in equity markets don’t see it is such a positive thing. The Dow is down as of this moment by 70 points, matching it’s earlier low of the session. Chevron also came out with a statement saying that it’s 4th quarter profits were going to be down.
Traders also had to deal with the report released this morning on the November trade balance deficit. In November the actual deficit for our country was $36.4 Billion, quite a bit worse than the $34.6B anticipated and worse from the October number of $33.2 Billion. Oil prices are down slightly for the morning so far, and the dollar is flat.
Credit markets are better in the face of equity markets declining. Our rebates on our 30 year fixed products are anywhere from (.25) to (.375) better than yesterday’s rebates. We look for this trend to continue.
I will be in a monthly sales meeting at 10:00 this morning for about an hour, then I will be available the rest of the day. I hope you have a terrific Tuesday!
Traders also had to deal with the report released this morning on the November trade balance deficit. In November the actual deficit for our country was $36.4 Billion, quite a bit worse than the $34.6B anticipated and worse from the October number of $33.2 Billion. Oil prices are down slightly for the morning so far, and the dollar is flat.
Credit markets are better in the face of equity markets declining. Our rebates on our 30 year fixed products are anywhere from (.25) to (.375) better than yesterday’s rebates. We look for this trend to continue.
I will be in a monthly sales meeting at 10:00 this morning for about an hour, then I will be available the rest of the day. I hope you have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 11, 2010
Update #1/ Week of January 11, 2009
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! Another Monday, another positive number on the Dow . . . it’s just the way things are. The other 2 major indices are struggling to stay above the unchanged mark, but I think it’s safe to say, equity markets are flat again today. Even so, for the first 6 trading days of the year, we have gained about 200 points on the Dow, after a 120 point drop on the last day of trading for 2009 (a net gain of about 100 points). Credit markets are equally as flat with rates for us improving slightly over Friday’s rate sheet last week (like within .125 in rebate).
There are no economic news releases this morning of note. China announced earlier today that their net exports has finally moved positive, the first time in a year . . . a report that provides some comfort for the global economy as a whole. The slow start for equity markets is a bit of a surprise in light of the fact that the US dollar is quite weak this morning . . . down .7% against a basket of foreign currencies -- this usually feeds a much stronger rise in stock prices.
Earnings season unofficially kicks off this afternoon with the earnings report from Dow component Alcoa due to be released after the closing bell. The rest of the week and the weeks to come should be a wild ride. Although, companies don’t want to be pessimistic at this point of the economic recession. We’re likely to hear a lot of talk about anticipated positive earnings going forward, push for growth instead of watching the bottom line, expansion of labor force and spending . . . and a coming out of the recession in 2010. We’ll see if bullish equity traders can ride that horse to higher stock prices. It will be interesting to watch. Gold prices are on the way back up, so some aren’t so sure we’re going to keep rising in equities.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
There are no economic news releases this morning of note. China announced earlier today that their net exports has finally moved positive, the first time in a year . . . a report that provides some comfort for the global economy as a whole. The slow start for equity markets is a bit of a surprise in light of the fact that the US dollar is quite weak this morning . . . down .7% against a basket of foreign currencies -- this usually feeds a much stronger rise in stock prices.
Earnings season unofficially kicks off this afternoon with the earnings report from Dow component Alcoa due to be released after the closing bell. The rest of the week and the weeks to come should be a wild ride. Although, companies don’t want to be pessimistic at this point of the economic recession. We’re likely to hear a lot of talk about anticipated positive earnings going forward, push for growth instead of watching the bottom line, expansion of labor force and spending . . . and a coming out of the recession in 2010. We’ll see if bullish equity traders can ride that horse to higher stock prices. It will be interesting to watch. Gold prices are on the way back up, so some aren’t so sure we’re going to keep rising in equities.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
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