Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! We ended last week on a down note for equity markets after 8 straight days of positive closes. The Dow closed Friday down 37 points . . . and what do you know . . . we’re up 38 points right at this very minute. A negative tone seemed to be prevalent before the opening bell maybe from steep losses in Asian stock markets overnight. However, the markets have stayed steadily positive, and as I mentioned before, we are exactly where we started on Friday morning.
Health Care reform obviously dominates the economic news page this morning. Last night’s passage of the Health Care Reform bill has traders scrambling to try to assess the impact on the economy and health care related stocks. There are no economic news reports of note today, so the markets will likely revolve around this big health care issue throughout the day.
Gold prices have dropped below $1100 an ounce for the first time in several weeks, as a strong dollar puts pressure on stocks and commodities. Oil prices were about $1 below the $80 benchmark early this morning that has been it’s roost for most of the year, but has since made up those losses and trades only modestly negative. Credit markets are improving today and thus, our pricing is about (.125) better than Friday’s rate sheet -- still in this very tight trough.
I will be in the office all day today, however, I will be out and about tomorrow visiting broker shops. Call me here or email me if I can help you with a loan scenario or pricing question. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
Monday, March 22, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Update #4/ Week of March 15, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Thursday! I’m just not going to make the comment today about a flat market, but truly today . . . we are right at the unchanged mark on all 3 stock indices. Equities have quietly marched steadily higher for pretty much the entire month of March so far. Credit markets during this time have remained steady, and pricing even today is slightly better than yesterday’s pricing. Again, we’ll take it.
The stock market is taking fuel from good earnings reports this morning from retailers like Nike and Guess, and from FedEx – which in particular many analysts feel is a good indicator of future consumer growth. However, the US dollar is showing some considerable strength – up a full 1.0% over its competing currencies, and putting pressure on the stock markets. In Economic news this morning, inflation continues to prove itself a non factor at this point in the economic recovery. CPI for February was flat, a .1% increase was expected, but it came in right at zero. Core CPI did increase .1% m-o-m in line with expectations, so no market moving news there.
Jobless claims for the week ending Mar 13 totaled 457K – in line with the 455K figure for which the experts were anticipating. Continuing claims however, continue to rise as this week’s number came in at 4.58M, just higher than the 4.52M anticipated. Last week’s number was revised upwardly to 4.57M . . . no relief seems to be in sight on this front. The Philly Fed Index for March came in slightly better than expected. March’s number is 18.9, which tops expectations of 18.0. Leading Economic Indicators rose .1% as expected, maybe someday we’ll see the results of these positive leading indicators.
I will be in the office all day today! Please call me here or email me for a faster response. Have a terrific Thursday!
The stock market is taking fuel from good earnings reports this morning from retailers like Nike and Guess, and from FedEx – which in particular many analysts feel is a good indicator of future consumer growth. However, the US dollar is showing some considerable strength – up a full 1.0% over its competing currencies, and putting pressure on the stock markets. In Economic news this morning, inflation continues to prove itself a non factor at this point in the economic recovery. CPI for February was flat, a .1% increase was expected, but it came in right at zero. Core CPI did increase .1% m-o-m in line with expectations, so no market moving news there.
Jobless claims for the week ending Mar 13 totaled 457K – in line with the 455K figure for which the experts were anticipating. Continuing claims however, continue to rise as this week’s number came in at 4.58M, just higher than the 4.52M anticipated. Last week’s number was revised upwardly to 4.57M . . . no relief seems to be in sight on this front. The Philly Fed Index for March came in slightly better than expected. March’s number is 18.9, which tops expectations of 18.0. Leading Economic Indicators rose .1% as expected, maybe someday we’ll see the results of these positive leading indicators.
I will be in the office all day today! Please call me here or email me for a faster response. Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Update #3/ Week of March 15, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy St. Patty’s Day! Stock indices tack on another gain so far in an attempt to close out it’s 7th straight day of positive closes.
The Dow, at this moment, sits at 10,728 – finally cresting its high for 2010 and hitting levels not seen since Sept of 2008. It’s been a while since we’ve been here on equity indices, but we are notching these small daily gains pretty consistently, so the likelihood of a continued rise is good. Many analysts were looking for a correction right after the 1st of the year, and we did get one, it just wasn’t as big as many predicted. However, the stock markets have been pretty much flat for about 2 months, up until a couple weeks ago when we started posting these daily gains. Thus, a correction at this point does not seem likely -- look for equities to keep rising.
What does this do to credit markets and rates? Well, we were pleasantly surprised to see rates improve yesterday. Credit markets have pocketed their gains from yesterday afternoon and this morning our rate sheet reflects any where from an (.125) to (.250) improvement from yesterday’s rebates. We’ll take it.
Traders got some momentum this morning from Asian markets who closed very strong early this morning. Maybe our Fed decision helped in some way spark this rally. PPI (Wholesale inflation) for February dropped .6% m-o-m, far deeper than analysts’ .2% expectation. This is good news after January’s pop of a 1.4% increase (month over month) that put a scare into economists looking for continued low inflation. Corporate news is light today as is trading volume once again. Trading volume has been very low for the past several trading sessions, and the volatility index has dropped another 5.3% -- it’s lowest mark since May of 2008. Calm seems to be ruling the markets lately. I guess that’s good, but it’s no fun.
I will be in the office all day today, however, I do have an appointment mid afternoon and will be unavailable for a couple hours. Otherwise, if I can help you with a lock, a pricing scenario or a program question, please call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
The Dow, at this moment, sits at 10,728 – finally cresting its high for 2010 and hitting levels not seen since Sept of 2008. It’s been a while since we’ve been here on equity indices, but we are notching these small daily gains pretty consistently, so the likelihood of a continued rise is good. Many analysts were looking for a correction right after the 1st of the year, and we did get one, it just wasn’t as big as many predicted. However, the stock markets have been pretty much flat for about 2 months, up until a couple weeks ago when we started posting these daily gains. Thus, a correction at this point does not seem likely -- look for equities to keep rising.
What does this do to credit markets and rates? Well, we were pleasantly surprised to see rates improve yesterday. Credit markets have pocketed their gains from yesterday afternoon and this morning our rate sheet reflects any where from an (.125) to (.250) improvement from yesterday’s rebates. We’ll take it.
Traders got some momentum this morning from Asian markets who closed very strong early this morning. Maybe our Fed decision helped in some way spark this rally. PPI (Wholesale inflation) for February dropped .6% m-o-m, far deeper than analysts’ .2% expectation. This is good news after January’s pop of a 1.4% increase (month over month) that put a scare into economists looking for continued low inflation. Corporate news is light today as is trading volume once again. Trading volume has been very low for the past several trading sessions, and the volatility index has dropped another 5.3% -- it’s lowest mark since May of 2008. Calm seems to be ruling the markets lately. I guess that’s good, but it’s no fun.
I will be in the office all day today, however, I do have an appointment mid afternoon and will be unavailable for a couple hours. Otherwise, if I can help you with a lock, a pricing scenario or a program question, please call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Update #3/ Week of March 15, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy St. Patty’s Day! Stock indices tack on another gain so far in an attempt to close out it’s 7th straight day of positive closes.
The Dow, at this moment, sits at 10,728 – finally cresting its high for 2010 and hitting levels not seen since Sept of 2008. It’s been a while since we’ve been here on equity indices, but we are notching these small daily gains pretty consistently, so the likelihood of a continued rise is good. Many analysts were looking for a correction right after the 1st of the year, and we did get one, it just wasn’t as big as many predicted. However, the stock markets have been pretty much flat for about 2 months, up until a couple weeks ago when we started posting these daily gains. Thus, a correction at this point does not seem likely -- look for equities to keep rising.
What does this do to credit markets and rates? Well, we were pleasantly surprised to see rates improve yesterday. Credit markets have pocketed their gains from yesterday afternoon and this morning our rate sheet reflects any where from an (.125) to (.250) improvement from yesterday’s rebates. We’ll take it.
Traders got some momentum this morning from Asian markets who closed very strong early this morning. Maybe our Fed decision helped in some way spark this rally. PPI (Wholesale inflation) for February dropped .6% m-o-m, far deeper than analysts’ .2% expectation. This is good news after January’s pop of a 1.4% increase (month over month) that put a scare into economists looking for continued low inflation. Corporate news is light today as is trading volume once again. Trading volume has been very low for the past several trading sessions, and the volatility index has dropped another 5.3% -- it’s lowest mark since May of 2008. Calm seems to be ruling the markets lately. I guess that’s good, but it’s no fun.
I will be in the office all day today, however, I do have an appointment mid afternoon and will be unavailable for a couple hours. Otherwise, if I can help you with a lock, a pricing scenario or a program question, please call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
The Dow, at this moment, sits at 10,728 – finally cresting its high for 2010 and hitting levels not seen since Sept of 2008. It’s been a while since we’ve been here on equity indices, but we are notching these small daily gains pretty consistently, so the likelihood of a continued rise is good. Many analysts were looking for a correction right after the 1st of the year, and we did get one, it just wasn’t as big as many predicted. However, the stock markets have been pretty much flat for about 2 months, up until a couple weeks ago when we started posting these daily gains. Thus, a correction at this point does not seem likely -- look for equities to keep rising.
What does this do to credit markets and rates? Well, we were pleasantly surprised to see rates improve yesterday. Credit markets have pocketed their gains from yesterday afternoon and this morning our rate sheet reflects any where from an (.125) to (.250) improvement from yesterday’s rebates. We’ll take it.
Traders got some momentum this morning from Asian markets who closed very strong early this morning. Maybe our Fed decision helped in some way spark this rally. PPI (Wholesale inflation) for February dropped .6% m-o-m, far deeper than analysts’ .2% expectation. This is good news after January’s pop of a 1.4% increase (month over month) that put a scare into economists looking for continued low inflation. Corporate news is light today as is trading volume once again. Trading volume has been very low for the past several trading sessions, and the volatility index has dropped another 5.3% -- it’s lowest mark since May of 2008. Calm seems to be ruling the markets lately. I guess that’s good, but it’s no fun.
I will be in the office all day today, however, I do have an appointment mid afternoon and will be unavailable for a couple hours. Otherwise, if I can help you with a lock, a pricing scenario or a program question, please call me here or better yet email me if I can help you. Have a terrific Humpday!
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Update #2/ Week of March 15, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Would it be redundant to say that markets are flat again this morning? Actually, equity markets made up their losses after our rate sheets went out yesterday and were able to close in positive territory for the 5th straight session. Today, although the gains are hardly impressive, all equity indices are in positive territory. Fortunately for us, credit markets are improved from yesterday and our pricing is slightly better than yesterday’s (by anywhere from .02 bps to .08 bps), but an improvement none the less.
Markets are patiently awaiting the decision by the Feds which is due at 11:15 this morning. No surprises are expected, although investors and analysts will be dissecting the accompanying remarks to see if there are any clues for future moves. It can only move in one direction, since the current Fed funds target rate is 0.0 to .25% -- pretty low. Commentators are also looking for any dissenting governors like Kansas City’s Fed Governor who is pushing already for the Feds to raise their target rate.
In Economic News this morning, Import Prices fell in February at a rate of .3% m-o-m, a little more than the .2% drop anticipated. This follows an impressive jump in January (revised today) of 1.3% increase over the previous month. Housing Starts drop again . . . February’s number came in 5.9% lower compared to January representing an annualized rate of 575K units. Analysts were looking for a drop, and the number actually came in a bit higher than the 570K units for which they were looking. However, January’s numbers were revised upwards to 611K units (annualized), so the decline of 5.9% was worse than the anticipated 3.6% -- did that make sense? Building permits fell again in February by 1.6% m-o-m . . . slightly better than the 3.4% drop experts were predicting.
We were told this morning on CNBC’s Morning Call that 3 out of 4 homes on the real estate market are foreclosures. Interesting. Makes it hard for sellers to establish a market price. We don’t really have a traditional buyer/seller interaction taking place. And we all know there are thousands upon thousands of properties still owned by the banks that need to come to market. Thus, a true equilibrium price that economists like to see, is still a moving target.
Gold prices are up about $20 today, silver is up, oil is up, the dollar is weak . . . this typically points to a strong equity rally, but such is not really the case. Traders seem to be satisfied with finishing out the quarter nice and steady. The Dow is up about 230 points for the year, however, it still has about 67 points to go to match the high for 2010 set on Jan 19.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you . Have a terrific Tuesday and a very prosperous rest of the week!
Markets are patiently awaiting the decision by the Feds which is due at 11:15 this morning. No surprises are expected, although investors and analysts will be dissecting the accompanying remarks to see if there are any clues for future moves. It can only move in one direction, since the current Fed funds target rate is 0.0 to .25% -- pretty low. Commentators are also looking for any dissenting governors like Kansas City’s Fed Governor who is pushing already for the Feds to raise their target rate.
In Economic News this morning, Import Prices fell in February at a rate of .3% m-o-m, a little more than the .2% drop anticipated. This follows an impressive jump in January (revised today) of 1.3% increase over the previous month. Housing Starts drop again . . . February’s number came in 5.9% lower compared to January representing an annualized rate of 575K units. Analysts were looking for a drop, and the number actually came in a bit higher than the 570K units for which they were looking. However, January’s numbers were revised upwards to 611K units (annualized), so the decline of 5.9% was worse than the anticipated 3.6% -- did that make sense? Building permits fell again in February by 1.6% m-o-m . . . slightly better than the 3.4% drop experts were predicting.
We were told this morning on CNBC’s Morning Call that 3 out of 4 homes on the real estate market are foreclosures. Interesting. Makes it hard for sellers to establish a market price. We don’t really have a traditional buyer/seller interaction taking place. And we all know there are thousands upon thousands of properties still owned by the banks that need to come to market. Thus, a true equilibrium price that economists like to see, is still a moving target.
Gold prices are up about $20 today, silver is up, oil is up, the dollar is weak . . . this typically points to a strong equity rally, but such is not really the case. Traders seem to be satisfied with finishing out the quarter nice and steady. The Dow is up about 230 points for the year, however, it still has about 67 points to go to match the high for 2010 set on Jan 19.
I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or better yet email me if I can help you . Have a terrific Tuesday and a very prosperous rest of the week!
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Update #3/ Week of March 01, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Wednesday! Yesterday’s economic news was paltry and so was the volume . . . represented by the fact that at the close of trading, all three indices closed up, but only by single digits. Today’s volume and economic news flow is quite different, but stock indices seem to be heading toward the flat line once again. Yesterday we spoke of the focus of the rest of this week being jobs news and it starts this morning with ADP February Employment numbers.
The ADP, not historically an accurate barometer of unemployment figures, comes out every Wednesday before the Friday when the Labor Dept releases the official unemployment report. Even still, the report released this morning posted a loss of only 20,000 jobs in February -- in line with expectations. However, the January figures were revised upward from 22,000 to 60,000 . . . uuummmm . . . does anyone wonder why this report is almost useless? Wouldn’t we normally get a revision of like 10%? Not 200%? Anyway, it certainly casts a shadow on today’s number. This is the smallest number in a year, but we haven’t seen a positive number on this report since January of 2008 . . . over 2 years now.
The ISM Services Index for February reported a rise to a reading of 53.0 from last month’s 50.5, and better than analysts expectations of 51.0. Bullish traders are trying to take advantage of the news to spark a rally, but it seems to be gaining little traction thus far. Oil prices are back up above $80 a barrel, gold prices site at their high’s for the year . . . and credit markets are flat. In fact, our pricing compared to yesterday’s rate sheet is within a couple bps (1/100ths of a point).
Today’s ADP number and it’s mixed report not only further discredits the validity of this report but gives us no confidence about what Friday’s numbers are likely to be. We’ll have to wait and see what transpires – the fun of being in an industry that’s tied to the markets. Really, would we have it any other way? I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing question . . . and have a terrific Humpday!
The ADP, not historically an accurate barometer of unemployment figures, comes out every Wednesday before the Friday when the Labor Dept releases the official unemployment report. Even still, the report released this morning posted a loss of only 20,000 jobs in February -- in line with expectations. However, the January figures were revised upward from 22,000 to 60,000 . . . uuummmm . . . does anyone wonder why this report is almost useless? Wouldn’t we normally get a revision of like 10%? Not 200%? Anyway, it certainly casts a shadow on today’s number. This is the smallest number in a year, but we haven’t seen a positive number on this report since January of 2008 . . . over 2 years now.
The ISM Services Index for February reported a rise to a reading of 53.0 from last month’s 50.5, and better than analysts expectations of 51.0. Bullish traders are trying to take advantage of the news to spark a rally, but it seems to be gaining little traction thus far. Oil prices are back up above $80 a barrel, gold prices site at their high’s for the year . . . and credit markets are flat. In fact, our pricing compared to yesterday’s rate sheet is within a couple bps (1/100ths of a point).
Today’s ADP number and it’s mixed report not only further discredits the validity of this report but gives us no confidence about what Friday’s numbers are likely to be. We’ll have to wait and see what transpires – the fun of being in an industry that’s tied to the markets. Really, would we have it any other way? I will be in the office all day today. Call me here or email me with your loan scenario or pricing question . . . and have a terrific Humpday!
Monday, March 1, 2010
Update #1/ Week of March 01, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday – first day of the week, first day of a new month! We’re back to a normal Monday trading pattern . . . the stock market is up, commodities are flat, and thankfully, the credit markets are holding their own. The stock market is picking up some momentum from the Asian markets’ start to the week. The Hang Seng (Hong Kong’s stock market) was up earlier this morning over 400 points! The dollar is strong today, which typically means a softer equity market, but it does help the credit markets keep stable -- they are just slightly worse than where they closed on Friday.
The Dow last week lost about 75 points and we are just about at that level in the positive on the Dow as I write . . . which means we are almost to the point exactly where we closed on Feb the 19th . . . 6 days of trading with nothing to show for in equities. However, rates have made quite an improvement in those same 6 days. Stocks are rallying on some M&A activity going on today . . . a trend not seen in quite some time, but has been the case the last couple weeks.
Equity markets are dealing with a mixed bag of economic news this morning. The first economic news release was the consumer spending report for January which showed a 0.5% increase, just ahead of the 0.4% increase analysts were expecting. Core personal consumption was flat from the prior month. However, January personal income only rose 0.1%, quite a bit less than the 0.4% for which analysts were looking. The ISM Manufacturing Index for February came in at 56.5, below the 57.9 widely anticipated and a bit less than the 58.4 posted in January. Construction spending for January dropped 0.6% -- in line with expectations.
In Chicago we like March . . . we say “March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.” We look forward to our March here being quite an improvement from February as everyone now seems to have a grip on this new GFE and rates are really good right now. FTHB’s tax credit is still good for a short time (although it’s almost certain that it will have to be extended). I’m in the office all day today if you need me. Call me or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
The Dow last week lost about 75 points and we are just about at that level in the positive on the Dow as I write . . . which means we are almost to the point exactly where we closed on Feb the 19th . . . 6 days of trading with nothing to show for in equities. However, rates have made quite an improvement in those same 6 days. Stocks are rallying on some M&A activity going on today . . . a trend not seen in quite some time, but has been the case the last couple weeks.
Equity markets are dealing with a mixed bag of economic news this morning. The first economic news release was the consumer spending report for January which showed a 0.5% increase, just ahead of the 0.4% increase analysts were expecting. Core personal consumption was flat from the prior month. However, January personal income only rose 0.1%, quite a bit less than the 0.4% for which analysts were looking. The ISM Manufacturing Index for February came in at 56.5, below the 57.9 widely anticipated and a bit less than the 58.4 posted in January. Construction spending for January dropped 0.6% -- in line with expectations.
In Chicago we like March . . . we say “March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.” We look forward to our March here being quite an improvement from February as everyone now seems to have a grip on this new GFE and rates are really good right now. FTHB’s tax credit is still good for a short time (although it’s almost certain that it will have to be extended). I’m in the office all day today if you need me. Call me or email me with your loan scenario or pricing questions. Have a terrific Monday and a very profitable week!
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