Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! When I said last week that you should lock in this 4.375% rate as quick as you can since big banks really don’t want to offer this rate . . . I didn’t think it would only be available for a couple hours. Seriously. The 4.5% note rate on our 30 year conforming product this morning does have a slight cost (nearly 3 bps) so it is definitely still available. However, Friday morning’s pricing had a (.529) rebate on the 4.5%, par on the 4.375%, and credit markets are basically the same level this morning as they were at that time. You need to have your finger on the trigger in case we see it again, ‘cause rates won’t be at these levels for long.
The only economic news on the calendar this morning is the Existing Home Sales report for April which showed a surprise jump upward of 7.6% m-o-m to an annualized rate of 5.77M units . . . just higher than the 5.62M anticipated. Not sure why this is supposed to be a big news story, since we all know the news story is clouded by the fact that April was the last month for the tax incentive. It will sure be interesting to see how May looks. Hopefully realtors can catch some wind going into Summer and keep these numbers from falling too far.
News out of Spain that their Central Bank took over a regional bank named CajaSur has spooked markets once again. The Euro is down 1.5% compared to the US dollar which is strong today not only vs. the Euro but also compared to a basket of foreign currencies. This is weighing on our stock markets here, too. However, weakness in equities has meant strength in credit markets (and commodities, today) and better pricing for us. So let’s enjoy these low rates and get some loans locked!
Monday, May 24, 2010
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Update #3/ Week of May 17, 2010- ARA MELKONIANS
Good Afternoon and Happy Wednesday! Again, it all started last night in the Asian markets where the Hang Seng closed down 366 points. It continued in Europe in reaction to the news that Germany had put a stop to naked short selling (I’ve mentioned this before, if the traders want to sell their shorts that’s their business . . . but put some clothes on and quit running around naked!) without the consent of the rest of the EU. France and Germany both have showed signs recently of snubbing the EU system, and this is of grave concern to those who feel the whole union over there could fall apart.
Thus, European individual stock markets closed down anywhere from 2.5 to 3.0% almost straight across the board. US equity markets fell right out of the gate, with the Dow dropping almost 200 points in the first couple hours of trading today. We’ve since made up a portion of those losses, but still find ourselves in negative territory by double digits. The CPI for April was released this morning showing a decline of .1% -- similar to the PPI earlier this week. Again, deflation isn’t necessarily a good thing either, and there have been few times in our economy that we have even seen deflation – never in good times, of course. Core CPI was flat and probably didn’t provide much incentive to move the markets one way or the other, but seemed to have stopped the selling for the time being.
We learned this morning that mortgage delinquencies are on the rise once again. The first quarter of this year saw a rise to 10.1% from 9.5% the previous quarter. This economy continues to starve people out and apparently, more people are falling behind on their mortgages than ever before -- this is the highest reading in 30 years. As you can imagine, this report did nothing to help the equity markets and the sinking continued once again as soon as it was released.
Credit markets are rallying once again. Mortgage rates are improving steadily…this is the time to LOCK IT UP! Call me here or better yet email me if you need me. Have a terrific Humpday!
Thus, European individual stock markets closed down anywhere from 2.5 to 3.0% almost straight across the board. US equity markets fell right out of the gate, with the Dow dropping almost 200 points in the first couple hours of trading today. We’ve since made up a portion of those losses, but still find ourselves in negative territory by double digits. The CPI for April was released this morning showing a decline of .1% -- similar to the PPI earlier this week. Again, deflation isn’t necessarily a good thing either, and there have been few times in our economy that we have even seen deflation – never in good times, of course. Core CPI was flat and probably didn’t provide much incentive to move the markets one way or the other, but seemed to have stopped the selling for the time being.
We learned this morning that mortgage delinquencies are on the rise once again. The first quarter of this year saw a rise to 10.1% from 9.5% the previous quarter. This economy continues to starve people out and apparently, more people are falling behind on their mortgages than ever before -- this is the highest reading in 30 years. As you can imagine, this report did nothing to help the equity markets and the sinking continued once again as soon as it was released.
Credit markets are rallying once again. Mortgage rates are improving steadily…this is the time to LOCK IT UP! Call me here or better yet email me if you need me. Have a terrific Humpday!
Update #2/ Week of May 17, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Tuesday! Equity markets are struggling this morning in the face of some disappointing economic news releases. The first release was April’s Producer Price Index (inflation barometer for producers, and a sign on prices for the consumer 4-6 months out). April showed a .1% decrease, which was in line with expectations, but economists don’t want deflation. That’s not a good thing either. Prices should rise (as this will affect earnings, too), but only in the 1 to 3 percent range. The month previous the PPI had shot up .7%, so this reaction in April is a little disconcerting. The core PPI did rise .2%, slightly higher than the .1% anticipated.
Housing starts for April did rise 5.8% to an annualized rate of 672K, stronger than the 650K expected. However, building permits dropped 11.5% in April to an annualized rate of 605K . . . far worse than the 680K for which analysts were looking. Equity markets have pulled back and slipped into negative territory, but for those most part are hovering around the unchanged mark. Credit markets are improving and thus rates are still improving. That’s always the good news.
I’m out in the field today. Call me on my cell if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday
Housing starts for April did rise 5.8% to an annualized rate of 672K, stronger than the 650K expected. However, building permits dropped 11.5% in April to an annualized rate of 605K . . . far worse than the 680K for which analysts were looking. Equity markets have pulled back and slipped into negative territory, but for those most part are hovering around the unchanged mark. Credit markets are improving and thus rates are still improving. That’s always the good news.
I’m out in the field today. Call me on my cell if I can help you in any way. Have a terrific Tuesday
Monday, May 17, 2010
Update #1 / Week of May 17, 2010
Good Morning Everyone and Happy Monday! It all started last night with Asian markets selling off through the night. China’s Hang Seng closed down 420 points! The only economic news release for the US is the Empire State Manufacturing Survey which fell sharply in May to 19.1 from the 31.9 posted in April. The report did nothing to help equity markets today. Although the indices floated around the flat line for a while this morning, they have now dropped sharply and the Dow is off over 125 points as I send this article to you.
The dollar is strong today compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Troubles in the Mediterranean countries continue to haunt markets around the globe. Good news is, oil is down (prices are improving at the pump too) and mortgage rates are improving. We should see this trend continue this week as secondary marketing guys continue to offer better pricing each day. It’s taking a while for rates to float down, but at least they finally are!
I’m going to be tied up for about an hour, and then will be available to you for the rest of the day in the office.
Have a terrific Monday and here’s to a very productive and profitable week!
The dollar is strong today compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Troubles in the Mediterranean countries continue to haunt markets around the globe. Good news is, oil is down (prices are improving at the pump too) and mortgage rates are improving. We should see this trend continue this week as secondary marketing guys continue to offer better pricing each day. It’s taking a while for rates to float down, but at least they finally are!
I’m going to be tied up for about an hour, and then will be available to you for the rest of the day in the office.
Have a terrific Monday and here’s to a very productive and profitable week!
Friday, May 7, 2010
Final Update-Week of May 3, 2010
What a record day yesterday! Made stranger by a technical glitch in the trading system which caused the Dow Jones to sink as much as 1000 points at one point. It was the largest intraday drop in the history of the Stock Market. Yet, even when the technical glitch was realized and fixed (within minutes) the Dow still lost 350 points for the day. Credit markets rallied all day and have pretty much held to their gains this morning.
We were just hoping for a flat market today so we could keep those gains in the credit market, and instead we saw further selling in equities at the opening bell. Equity markets have pretty much made up their losses for the morning and are presently right at the flat line. What will happen the rest of today? Probably not much as traders try to get out of town for the weekend. Next week will probably see some recouping of the losses from the last 2 weeks I would suppose. There is still plenty of cash on the table and investors will want to buy in at these bargain prices.
The President actually took the podium this morning to announce the stellar numbers for job creation for the month of April. Our economy added 292,000 jobs in April . . . 66K were census workers, 59K were gov’t workers, 12K were in retail. Even still the unemployment rate rose to 9.9% -- as the President pointed out, this represents more people entering the “work force.” What that means is, the unemployment numbers are derived from hundreds of workers at the Labor Dept that call people and ask them if they are employed, if they are looking for a job . . . those “unemployed” people must not be employed and must be looking for a job (not have quit looking). This is the “work force” (a combination of those looking and those working) and 9.9% of them are looking for a job.
What the President said that really surprised me was, “the government is limited in what it can do.” I kind of had the impression that he thought the government could do everything for us. BUT . . . I digress, this isn’t a political op piece. I will be gone for an extended luncheon this morning, but here all morning and all afternoon for your questions. Get your locks in, as Secondary Marketing traders are always very slow to chase a falling market. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
We were just hoping for a flat market today so we could keep those gains in the credit market, and instead we saw further selling in equities at the opening bell. Equity markets have pretty much made up their losses for the morning and are presently right at the flat line. What will happen the rest of today? Probably not much as traders try to get out of town for the weekend. Next week will probably see some recouping of the losses from the last 2 weeks I would suppose. There is still plenty of cash on the table and investors will want to buy in at these bargain prices.
The President actually took the podium this morning to announce the stellar numbers for job creation for the month of April. Our economy added 292,000 jobs in April . . . 66K were census workers, 59K were gov’t workers, 12K were in retail. Even still the unemployment rate rose to 9.9% -- as the President pointed out, this represents more people entering the “work force.” What that means is, the unemployment numbers are derived from hundreds of workers at the Labor Dept that call people and ask them if they are employed, if they are looking for a job . . . those “unemployed” people must not be employed and must be looking for a job (not have quit looking). This is the “work force” (a combination of those looking and those working) and 9.9% of them are looking for a job.
What the President said that really surprised me was, “the government is limited in what it can do.” I kind of had the impression that he thought the government could do everything for us. BUT . . . I digress, this isn’t a political op piece. I will be gone for an extended luncheon this morning, but here all morning and all afternoon for your questions. Get your locks in, as Secondary Marketing traders are always very slow to chase a falling market. Have a terrific Friday and a very restful and relaxing weekend!
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